CNBC hosts sit utterly stunned over worst holiday sales in 9 years

[uponit7771]

CNBC hosts sit utterly stunned over worst holiday sales in 9 years: ‘I was thinking things were pretty good’

https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/cnbc-hosts-sit-utterly-stunned-worst-holiday-sales-9-years-thinking-things-pretty-good/

“It was actually a very bad holiday season,” Cramer remarked. “This was on [Fed Chairman Jerome Powell]. I said that the homework indicated that things had gotten very weak. He had not done the homework. I don’t know who he was speaking to.”

Weak holiday sales couple with

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/record-7-million-americans-are-3-months-behind-on-car-payments-a-red-flag-for-economy/

The New York Fed said Tuesday there were over a million more people with overdue car loans at the end of 2018 than there were in 2010, when unemployment hit 10 percent

One more piece of data contradicting the current UE rate and I'm calling BS on the Trump economy which was bout the only thing Benedict Donald had going.

I don't put it past Putin's Whore, Donald Trump, to order a federal agency to fake economic numbers.

your take?

tia

[riversedge]

1. k for visibility

[marylandblue]

2. unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, a fact which pundits ignore.

So no surprise that unemployment rate is still low.

The retail sales and auto loan figures suggest that the we are in a late phase expansion, when people take on too much debt, then have to cut back spending.

[uponit7771]

3. That's a lot of cutting back if both figures are going back to the height of the Republican Great

... Recession.

I remember that's when people were paying off debt, establishing savings and selling peripherals

[marylandblue]

6. Hard to draw a conclusion from one month's data

The stock market was declining, a shutdown was looming so people may have been extra cautious.

Defaulting on car loans is more serious. I read a few years ago that lot of subprime car loans being made. If those loans are now all failing, it could be like a mini 2008.

[uponit7771]

14. got it

[Chickensoup]

28. I think the con administration play with

the economic figures. You see the end justify The means, let's make America great again. There is an election coming up
So what is a lie here and a lie their!

[spanone]

4. WOW

[uponit7771]

5. WHOA !!! No one liked the retail sales news !!! Some shit about to go down

[CountAllVotes]

26. +1

Not good.

This and the lack of healthy inflation is taking America to a big *pop* goes the bubble the way things are shaping up!

& recommend.

[world wide wally]

7. So fucking what...

The billionaires are doing just fine.
That is all people care about.



Ask any billionaire.

[uponit7771]

8. +1, and I'm questioning Gallups 44% seeing 25% of people aren't getting a damn tax refund this

... year when they got one last year.

[enid602]

49. Refunds

That reduction in refunds won’t help with the retail sales numbers.

[suffragette]

9. Ripple effect from shutdown? Trump threatening the shutdown right before the holiday created

massive uncertainty, not only for federal workers, but for so many who count on them as customers and for contracts. Add to that being unsure of what additional chaos he might unleash and you increase the amount of people being cautious about purchases, especially major ones.

[uponit7771]

10. Possibly, I would think millions of people would stop spending knowing things were going to get thic

[doc03]

11. I wonder if on line sales were the reason? nt

[Sanity Claws]

12. Jobs don't pay a living wage

People may be working but they can't pay their bills. They don't have enough to pay rent, food, student loans, etc.

I wonder whether student loans, like car loans, are delinquent.

[TexasBushwhacker]

16. There are probably even more student loans that are past due

They can't repo your diploma.

[Demsrule86]

23. I took out a parent loan for my daughter...it is now $16,000 and she isn't even out of school.

It was $9000 in 17. I am now paying 150 a month in interest. don't have to until she graduates but imaging how much it would be then if I don't.

[MichMan]

30. One of the reasons why student loans are not dischargeble in bankruptcy ?

[CentralMass]

27. This.

[Wellstone ruled]

13. Well,those multi millionaire talking heads

are stunned. That is funny,thing of all the times they voiced their personal vengeance on umpteen Working Class slobs for not buying their into their daily PONZI schemes.


Retail sales fall,well yes dummy,Bloomberg has been spewing that line since October.

[madville]

15. Good news

We all need to be buying less. It's bad for the environment and "growth" consumerism and consumption just funnels our money up to the millionaires and billionaires.

[Ligyron]

18. You're getting a heart for that kiddo.

[Fuzzpope]

17. I'm living a recession

And getting fucking annihilated by it, I don't give a flying flap what mickey mouse candy land numbers Trump scraped off the walls of his colon, it's all bullshit.

You can't spin away a 60-70% drop in business income and that's what I'm personally facing right now.

[madville]

20. What business?

And what area? Just curious, I'm a Floridian but working in California now and have moved about 10 times in my life chasing jobs and the economy.

[Fuzzpope]

33. I'm a professional tattoo artist.

We are a real time barometer for the health of the national economy. Essentially a luxury, we are the first in line for a beating when wallets cinch closed.

I've worked in this trade now more than a quarter century, and it's never deviated from its annual income trajectory through the year. We should have been neck deep in business with tax returns hitting, only..

Well, you know.

Trump, the life ruining motherfucker of the ages. For the first time in my life, I'm in severe financial jeapordy.

[GreenPartyVoter]

37. Our computer repair biz tanked before Xmas and has yet to come back. We

are seriously screwed having played credit card shell games to stay afloat. This week we are not only cancelling elder son's 21st bday dinner, but also grocery shopping, and we are now scrambling to figure out how to stave off bankruptcy until after he graduates, otherwise we can't cosign his loans and he will have taken on all that debt for nothing.

[Fuzzpope]

42. I can truly empathize

The annual sine curve of tattooing begins to steeply drop the day after Halloween (like a cesium atom, it's amazingly predictable), and stays low [now]almost five full months eventually getting a kick start via tax season that puts it back on the upswing most of the remaining year. That can start as early as the 15th of January, but never later than the second week of February.

We are still waiting, with no indication that things are going to improve. Since Trump took office, an entire demographic of our clientele has virtually vanished without a trace, the only answer for it is they are too broke to come in.

The reality is, tattooing is a highly seasonal trade, and even in "normal years", it's difficult to sock enough away to get through the attrition of the winter months. Compounding that with what I call the "Trump effect", I'm now fighting for base survival and it's a losing battle with the tax refunds disaster.

Best of luck to you, my friend.

[GreenPartyVoter]

51. Good luck to you, too!

[Ohioboy]

19. Just wait until people either don't get a tax refund, or they get less than usual

Tax season usually results in a lot of retail sales and paying off of debt. From what I hear Trump's little tax scam is resulting in people getting less in refunds, or even owing money they didn't expect to owe.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

24. I think some of it is that people changed their withholding

(lessened it) anticipating a cut at YE. So in reality they were getting more money each pay, instead of in the form of a refund. Overall taxes lower per IRS. That said, people won't be able to figure it out, which is a good thing

[uponit7771]

36. It was literally charged for them by IRS to make Red Don look good, 40 million people didn't adjust

40 million people didn't adjust W-2 all in one year

[Laura PourMeADrink]

40. Do you mean changed? Not charged? Oh, I totally

Agree that something fishy probably happened. It's just unclear. I distinctly remember someone here who had an IRS connection posting that IRS did NOT change withholding tables. By doing this, withholding more, refund checks would be higher (making trump look good) even If tax burden didn't really go down.

What I didn't get at the time was why you didn't hear a lot of people (I heard no one) talk about how they got a bit more in their paychecks. Strikes me that there would be a buzz of some kind.

So, the theory of them not changing withholding tables made sense.

Now, did every payroll office across the country get the new tables (with less withholding) who knows.

If they did, then people's paychecks would have risen, and refunds less.

Anectodally, I read about 50 or so comments people posted on a Yahoo story about taxes. Most all got lower refund than 2017. But some, who upped their withholding anticipating it might be safer to do that did. But no one bragged about getting bigger paychecks which doesn't make sense.

It's a mystery for sure. But does seem fishy you are right.

[uponit7771]

44. It clear what happened, withholding change affected nearly 40 million Americans returns

[Laura PourMeADrink]

45. Playing devil's advocate...isn't that ideal? Withholding

More closely matches actual tax burden? I was guessing that without mass itemization probably easier to match. Can't imagine repukes did much what if analysis.... testing various tax scenarios

[hatrack]

21. When the pie flies across the room, it's the clowns who tend to get hit with it . . .

And that is exactly what these people are - ass-kissing, apple-polishing, clueless clowns.

What the hell did they expect? When was the last time they spent more than five minutes in a town of less than 5,000 residents?

When was the last time any of them had to worry about whether they'd have enough money to make the mortgage, or whether they'd be able to retire, or whether they'd be able to afford a checkup or an MRI or a colonoscopy?

When was the last time they spent more than an hour in rural Wisconsin, or on a reservation in South Dakota, or in a poor neighborhood in Camden or Chicago or Jackson Mississippi? (Pro tip - having a camera along during your little jaunt beyond your usual circuit of TV studio-Nobu-Hamptons doesn't fucking count).

When was the last time time any of them had dinner with somebody who made less than $50,000/year? (Hint - doing so with your gardener or nanny or chef doesn't fucking count).

There's a whole lot of people in this country who don't have any more money to spend, and who don't have any more access to credit and now, after 40 years of GOP bullshit policies, the string has finally run out.

And these six- and seven-figure buffoons are just now getting a clue.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

25. YOU need to run for office ! Well said mate!

[Demsrule86]

22. We spent nothing compared to what we usually spend this year.

[Elwood P Dowd]

29. I spent nothing at all.

Told everyone on the list I was giving what little holiday money I could spend to the local food bank.

[Demsrule86]

47. What a lovely thing to do.

[LuvNewcastle]

39. I didn't either.

I got a couple of little treats for my parents, coffee and cashews, and that was it. It was all I could afford.

[Demsrule86]

46. My kids got a check...but no stockings...nice dinner and that was it.

And Christmas eve PJ's

[Hoyt]

31. Holiday sales were still up 2.9%, in spite of trump.

Car loan delinquencies are troubling, but apparently a lot of subprime loans were made in recent years. Kind of predictable.

[uponit7771]

38. Do you have a link for the 2.9%, I cannot find it anywhere on Google

[Hoyt]

41. Be glad to.

While less than expections -- or hopes -- here is where I got 2.9%:

Holiday sales were up just 2.9 percent in 2018, the National Retail Federation said on Thursday, on the heels of the Commerce Department announcing retail sales for December fell 1.2 percent, the largest decline since September of 2009 . . . . . .

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/14/holiday-sales-were-a-huge-disappointment-retail-report-says.html


From this article, it appears the 1.2% decline is December 2018 over November 2018. Well, maybe a few more people did their Christmas shopping in November that December.

"Retail and food services sales totalled $505.8 billion in December, falling 1.2% month from a revised $512.2 billion in November, but with an annual gain of 2.3%, the US Census Bureau reported."

https://english.mubasher.info/news/3415831/US-retail-sales-fall-1-2-in-December



Here's some other reports that make we wonder who is correct.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-holiday-retail-sales-are-strongest-in-6-years-by-this-measure-2018-12-26

https://www.apnews.com/8e1cddc5bf9c4ae9a624fb78d337da88

[uponit7771]

43. This is still very negative news relative to historical data, worse since 2009

...

Also

It makes no sense to use unfinished predictions from 2018 when the NRF hasn't finished accumulating data come the next year.

[Hoyt]

48. Doesn't sound near as bad as 1.2% drop -- which was just December vs November.

I get it will give trump a boost going into 2020 election if economy is decent, but I don't think this article proves it's all going to chit and unemployment will be 10% so trump won't get re-elected. I think he'll probably enter 2020 with things decent, he'll take credit for everything Obama did, and racists will vote for trump no matter what and some others will think the great "deal maker" is going to make the economy boom. All BS, but it was all BS in 2016.

[Cicada]

32. I don't think government economic stats are faked

I have never once heard of a whistle blower saying govt economic stats were rigged. And I think it would be impossible. There are filed payroll tax reports which require tax payments for all employees. If there are fake employees deposited payroll taxes would show up as too low. There would be billions of dollars missing which would be noticed. In addition there are private measures too. The giant private payroll firm ADP calculates unemployment and over time their figures always match government figures. Phony govt numbers would produce a discrepancy. Never happens. I think there is just a recent deterioration.

[radius777]

34. The economy is 'good' on paper,

not in reality for the middle class, who see wages declining and costs (healthcare, prescription drugs, housing, food, transportation, etc) rising.

Also, many homeowners are still underwater (or lost their homes to foreclosure), and haven't recovered from the housing bubble.

Many older workers lost their jobs and their homes, and are working at places like Walmart, without a retirement.

Then you have many Millenials saddled w/tuition debt, without job prospects to be able to pay it back.

Many families have kids with special needs (autism, etc) - with dwindling healthcare coverage, rising premiums, exorbitant prescription drug costs, etc.

The American Dream just doesn't exist anymore for many people.

[Initech]

35. That's what you get when advertisers expect you to spend...

The GDP of a small nation on Christmas gifts and people don't have the necessary income to meet your expectations. I think it's way past time we give the marketing and advertising industry in its' current state the heave ho. Not everything needs to be an advertising blitz, and I think people were sick of it last year.

[marlakay]

50. Well maybe if Trump had given

Us little people the tax cut we could have gone shopping. I bought the least I ever have this year.