Biden's polling lead shaky ahead of 2020 decision

[DonViejo]

New surveys question whether the former vice president is a real front-runner or just has big name-recognition.

By STEVEN SHEPARD 02/18/2019 08:02 AM EST

Joe Biden’s big lead in early Democratic 2020 polling might be a bunch of malarkey.

While most polls show the former vice president hovering around 30 percent of the Democratic primary vote, well ahead of second-place Sen. Bernie Sanders, two recent surveys paint a starkly different picture — raising the question of whether Biden is a real front-runner or just has big name-recognition. Those polls show far more Democratic voters undecided about which candidate to support, and they pegged Biden’s backing at a much less intimidating 9 to 12 percent.

The results are so varied partly thanks to different methodological choices by the pollsters. But parsing the results is more than an academic exercise: While Biden weighs a third campaign for the presidency, he and his allies must consider whether polls a year before primary season really reflect Biden’s true strength — and his potential rivals have to calculate whether the former vice president could overwhelm lesser-known challengers in 2020.

“These polls are today’s reality,” said Democratic pollster John Anzalone. “And sometimes, today’s reality holds until tomorrow and all the way until next year. And other times, today’s reality changes. Primaries are like that.”

Today, the polling signs are that “it’s a very open field,” said Steen Kirby, a campaigns and data specialist with Bold Blue Campaigns, a Democratic firm. “People are weighing their options. I think the reason that so many people are getting in is because this is a 1-to-15 percent spread, not a 1-to-30 percent spread. It’s very different from 2016, when Hillary Clinton was at 40 or 50 percent.”

more
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/18/joe-biden-2020-polling-1173226

[BostonBlue]

1. An official announcement by Biden will bump his numbers

and shape the race. The rest of the field will battle to be the alternative to Biden. He would do well to hold off for a while.

[GeorgeGist]

2. Tiger Beat on the Potomac?

I'll pass on their judgment.

[shanny]

3. Biden shouldn't run.

VP again, Sec of State, happy warrior/surrogate--pick one...but don't run.

[Garrett78]

4. Pre-Obama Biden wasn't particularly popular. If he runs, people will be reminded why.