Here's my take on the Russia Investigation, using an educated guess

[louis c]

I have followed the whole Russia interference in the 2016 election and Trump treason investigation as closely as a person can. It is actually incorporated into my job, as I work in political research for a labor union.

So, here goes. I am optimistic that this investigation will result in more indictments and the resignation of Donald Trump. My analysis goes like this: When anyone looks at the facts and evidence, which are far more than what's made public, I believe it is overwhelming. Jeff Sessions knew what was going on. He was briefed. The information he was given was so overwhelming and pointed to Trump being a traitor, that he couldn't run interference for him. Sessions knew history would judge him harshly. And Jeff Sessions was a sycophant Trump supporter, yet let the investigation continue, even after he was humiliated, publicly and privately, by Trump. Enter Whittaker. Here is a fraudster. If anyone was placed into a position to do Trump's dirty work, it's Whittaker. Yet, after being briefed, it turns out that he did none of the president*s bidding. He, too, could not bring himself to side with a traitor. I suspect Barr will do the same. After Mueller shows him the facts, the tapes, the emails, the witness testimony, Barr will also fold.

The evidence is overwhelming, IMHO, and when people see the whole package, they abandon Trump and choose to not be on the side of history that will humiliate them, their families and their future heirs for all of recoded time.

[2naSalit]

1. I would add to that...

I think, after seeing a couple McCabe interviews, that those who were sent to obstruct were faced with a whack-a-mole situation designed by McCabe and others to ensure that the investigation would move forward regardless of interference in the most blatant forms.

I am sure there are numerous "kill switches" implanted throughout the whole web of investigations that they can't be stopped until they are completed.

There's lots of evidence out there, it needs to be arranged such that the legal battle will have nothing but weak, ineffective challenge. This is what Speaker Pelosi does when she goes after something, by the rules and laws, that way your argument is the most sound and likely to win in a challenge.

[onetexan]

10. agree with louis c & your post completely

even with what Barr wrote in the past prior to his appointment to AG, the evidence will be so overwhelming it's undeniable that this man has not only committed crimes against the US, he's attempted obstruction repeatedly and continues to do so.
If he doesn't resign, the Senate will have no choice but to tell him either you do or we will impeach you, as in Nixon's case. I believe the ending of the Idiot's fake POTUS stint will be the same as that of Watergate.
That, though, does not end Russiagate. The end will be when complete justice is done with the indictments of the Idiot's kids and others complicit in his deception and subversion - McConnell, Ryan, Nunes, Sarah Sanders, Graham, the 4 GOP Reps who wanted to impeach Rosen, and that hideous prematurely bald racist punk he calls a sr. advisor.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

13. I would add to your thoughts....

that the "end" is not complete until all foreign actors involved in attempting to affect our elections are exposed, severely sanctioned and brought into court where possible. If not punished, they will simply do it again.

[onetexan]

17. agree, problem is most of the foreign actors will probably not be extradited if they are in Russia

so not sure what can be done there

[EndGOPPropaganda]

27. The "end" isn't complete until the donors behind Citizens United are addressed

The root problem of TrumpGOPRussia is money in politics. American billionaires bought the GOP and bought SCOTUS and bought Citizens United, throwing the door open to huge unregulated money in our politics. Russian oligarchs entered through that door. Rightwing billionaires have more in common with Russian oligarchs than they do with average Americans. And rightwing billionaires fund or own Fox and rightwing radio and Daily Caller and Breitbart — without those lying outlets Trump would be gone by now.

The root problem is rightwing billionaires buying our politics and media. Until THAT is addressed we cannot fix the country.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

56. Yes, plutocracy has no nationality.

Unless we consider several yachts parked in a harbor to be a nation, LOL.

I would like to see our Democratic Party candidates pound the word "bought" into people's heads with regards to billionaires buying the most precious things in democracy, using money taken from us to do the buying.

Under the radar, they buy:
* Elections (outright, in some cases) via massive contributions and media purchases.
* Our media - virtually all of it in essence, both public and private.
* Our politicians - via lobbying, campaign contributions and media influence.

That does not include their immense purchase or control of things of the "commons" - things like land and water resources.

So, I think it's a combination of allowing economic inequality to rapidly grow and then as you say, allowing the wealthy free reign to spend all they wish to on elections and lobbying. Both must be stopped or at least brought under control.

[True Blue American]

24. CNN

Just said the investigation would not end with Mueller. Too much has been uncovered to sweep it under the rug

Barr did cover the Reagan/ Bush Iran / Contra as much a he could but there is no rug big enough to cover this steaming pile. It also goes directy to the Republican Congress, too. That is hy so many took off, left town.

[olegramps]

46. Despite my hatred of Trump, what is provable may be difficult.

I will await the results of the Mueller's investigation. However, I put more faith in those investigating his financial dealing since they can be proven with a paper trail.

While Trump's actions in regard to Russia are reprehensible, can it be proven he actually broken the law? It seems to me that this appears to Trump's most feared investigation. I confess that I don't know. Much is speculation at this point. I don't know what the revelations will be, but it appears that the Trump forces, including the AG are willing to suppress any information that is not clearly indictable. What will be the response if the summary report concludes that for lack of indictable charges that information that may be clearly indicative of improper, but not unlawful behavior by Trump and his associates will not be made public.

From what I have seen this appears to be the tactic that the AG is going to take. It all boils down to what are truly provable criminal actions and that is why I will continue at this point to rely on the financial investigations to take him down. Remember that Capone was responsible for the murder of numerous people, but what put him in jail that was provable was his tax returns. What ever happens, Trump is in for a tremulous ride. I hope that they succeed in bankrupting the immoral bastard who has destroyed so many people with his fraudulent business practices.

[DENVERPOPS]

57. Screw Trump

Re-direct your attention to the true cause of all this, the Republican Congress and especially the Republican Senators.

Without them, Trump wouldn't last ten minutes. They have been fooling the American people for almost two years, with Trump's daily antics and corruption, diverting attention from what the Republican Senators have been shoving thru every day with all attention on Trump, and not them. THEY ARE THE TRUE CORRUPT POLITICIANS, MUCH MORE THAN TRUMP, HE IS MERELY A PAWN.

[spanone]

2. K&R...👍🏼

[tableturner]

3. Agree 100%! I have been thinking about the same set of facts and came to the same conclusion.

Every single time a new Trump sycophant has seen the actual evidence, they have refused to attack or harm the investigation. Your conclusion is the only plausible one, because, absent overwhelming evidence, surely those goons would have gone after Mueller.

They didn't want to go to prison and they didn't want to be known forever for being disloyal (to say the least!) to their country.

[Skraxx]

4. The Whole Shitshow Has Been Under FISA Surveillance for Years Now, It's ALL on Surveillance Footage

They've all been caught red handed, on footage, committing multiple felonies and probably treason. That's Mueller's ace in the hole and the thing that makes every shitbag he meets with turn white as a ghost: "Oh, they have that on tape? Oh shit..."

[LW1977]

5. Get this t the front page!,

Whoot

[watoos]

6. I like the way you think louis c.

Union official here for 26 years until I retired.

[Lonestarblue]

7. Mueller's report may be coming soon.

I just saw a breaking news headline on The Guardian site saying that AG Barr expects Mueller to wrap up his report next week. Since I don’t trust any Republican these days, it could be that Barr is the one wrapping up the Mueller investigation. I want the investigation results ASAP but I also want it to be complete. This seems fishy, considering that Barr has been on the job for only a few days. So is he doing what Trump has been trying to accomplish for months and shutting down the probe?

[Bernardo de La Paz]

9. Mueller will issue a Sentencing Report in the Manafort case next week. . . . nt

[politicaljunkie41910]

38. During Barr's confirmation hearing he introduced his family and all his children are attorneys and

half of them work for the government and half are in private practice. Surely they are not fools. They know that Trump is a liar and I can't believe that Barr would put his children's careers at risk by sending them down a rabbit hole. Barr isn't stupid like Trump and Nunez are, and he and his children know that as an attorney, their credibility means everything especially when they are trying to get a job with that premier law firm in DC that their Daddy used to work for.

[subana]

8. you may be right

as we have seen from the indictments Mueller has already brought to court, in every one he seems to have very solid evidence. He doesn't rely only on witness statements, he backs it up with written documents & other proof that cannot be a question of someone's opinion. And even if you don't want to admit it, it would be hard to argue against all of that proof.

[True Blue American]

25. Several former Intelligence Officials

Said it would go on for at least a couple more months. Who really knows?

[KPN]

11. I like your take. Let's hope it is right or

at least right enough to lead to the Trump family’s demise in Washington DC.

[lunatica]

12. There is also the crime of accessory before and after the fact,

failure to report a crime and the ex post facto law, and aiding and abetting.

Knowledge of a crime being committed but not reporting it. Failure to report a crime after it has been committed or helping the criminal hide evidence after the crime is committed. Deliberately derailing a criminal investigation, which is relevant in the case of Whitaker and Barr, would lead to them being convicted of crimes.

It seems these are very persuasive reasons for them to back off!

It’s one thing to protect The Donald, but to actually go to jail for it? Nah!

[Takket]

31. Surely Nunes will be charged under such a law

Every time the House committee got some info on drumpf he would practically fly by jet pack to the White House to tell drumpf everything!!!

[Sancho]

14. I just hope they can take down the co-conspirators!!!

...all the repubs who enabled and protected MF45.

[tclambert]

15. Can the Republican Party be brought up on RICO charges?

The CO part of RICO stands for Corrupt Organizations. The entire Republican Party has enabled Trump. Can the court sanction the entire Party, or perhaps ban it?

[Cbarwitz]

16. A possible alternative take

I’ve been following this closely as well, and I dont like to set expectations too high, so offer this and hope I’m underestimating the evidence.

I think there will be substantiatial INDIRECT evidence implicating Trump in conspiring with Russia to interfere in elections and other Russia related matters, but DIRECT evidence of his personal involvement may not be as solid.

This for the fact he routinely uses third parties to do his dirty work (and so does Russia), and has been sued enough times to know how to avoid being directly implicated. I assume Russians would be savvy about concealing communications.

That said, Michael Cohen may have some tapes and other evidence that might prove me wrong. Trump exploded when Cohen’s office was raided. He taped that conversation with Trump (though you could hear Trump treading cautiously).

Regarding monetary crimes (money laundering, emoluments), there’s probably overwhelming evidence against Trump. He’s such a greedy fraud, and gotten away with so much, that’s probably where he’s least cautious. Maybe the best evidence, then, against Trump will be “follow the money” type transactions.

I don’t think Trump will resign unless he loses mass support from his base.

So the report may truly be a gut call for the GOP and how important following the rule of law is to them.

[MH1]

18. I don't see Trump resigning. I hope either I'm wrong, or he is removed by other means.

But I don't see the motivation that would be strong enough for him to resign.

[Takket]

32. He'll never resign

The presidency is the only reason Mueller hasn’t yet had him arrested. If he resigns the FBI will be waiting for him at the end of the White House driveway.

[True Blue American]

26. Cohen is testifying

In open House hearing next week and they have been warned about intimidation of Cohen or his family.

[Mazeltov Cocktail]

19. Pence must go also...

Manafort is responsible for Pence, hence Pence is also dirty.

Like Agnew, Pence must go first for the republicans to hold the White House 😞

Hoping your take is correct...

[Kitchari]

21. Yes, Pence must go first

Like Agnew had to go first--exactly what you said!

[Blue Owl]

20. I'm ready for a historic dose of justice

Bring. It. On.

[calimary]

22. Seems like a reasonable conclusion.

[GaYellowDawg]

23. One point of disagreement...

The evidence is overwhelming, IMHO, and when people see the whole package, they abandon Trump and choose to not be on the side of history that will humiliate them, their families and their future heirs for all of recorded time.

I don't think a sizable percentage of his supporters will abandon him. I think Fox News will call the Mueller report "fake news" - they've only been setting up for that for years - and blither on about Mueller being the head of the "deep state" and Trumpbots will just fall into line. And they'll lionize traitor Trump the same way they lionized traitors like Ollie North and G. Gordon Liddy. Independents will fall in with us and demand impeachment, and with 65-35 polls in favor of impeachment, Trump will get impeached and then most likely barely escape indictment.

[louis c]

33. I think it just might end like this

[onetexan]

49. keep in mind Nixon still has followers to this day who are convinced of his innocence

or rather, who are not convinced of his guilt. Not sure what can be done about those who have a cult-like worship of their crazy supreme leader.

[Achilleaze]

28. republican traitors deserve justice for betraying America

Indict, try, convict, then lock them up.

[sfwriter]

29. I hope Mueller has what he needs...

the SDNY has what they need... The New York AG has what he needs... ...so they don't need the cooperation of Jared, Eric, Junior or Ivanka. My bet is Eric is dumb enough to think they are innocent, Junior is dumb enough to think they can get away with it, and Javanka has already prepared a nice menu of testimonial offerings to save their asses.

[lancelyons]

35. Thats pure speculation. What happened to the Mueller case?

This was supposed to be the investigation that pulled it all together.

All the things we have heard over the 2 years related to trump russian and Mueller has less than that or nothing?

Was he told to stop investigating certain things?

I have a bad feeling here but either Mueller was limited and could not talk about it by force or he has started to tow the party line.

I cant imagine him towing the party line so I suspect he has been limited.


Why the hell didnt he subpoena the president? This seems to be a huge mistake.

[sfwriter]

37. That still leaves the NY case, and the SDNY case, and the Inauguration case...

Conspiracy is never made with a smoking gun. Even if he somehow had nothing, I think Mueller will be planting an obstruction flag on his way out. How could he not.

[lancelyons]

47. Possible but it seems like this is becoming a fizzle dud.

All of this time.. all of the information that we have seen from russia and trump campaign.

all ending with a report that says what we knew already and that trump tried to obstruct all heavily redacted....


all leaves the GOP proclaiming victory and no collusion and an emboldened president with enough time for people (independents) etc to come back to trump provided the economy doesnt collapse.


Im just not feeling like this is going to amount to much.

[Zoonart]

30. My guess... Mueller report is SUPER damning...no socking gun.

Republicans looking at their own election prospects in 2020 tanking in the polls... force him to resign.
Pence pardons MF45. Pence is the lamest of lame ducks. Democrats take everything in 2020.

The SDNY roasts MF45 and his kids kishkas on an open camp fire and take down the entire criminal enterprise.

[madville]

42. He will pardon everyone except Cohen before he leaves office

then he will resign for a day and Pence will pardon him. That will be pretty hard to reverse and insulate them.

[lancelyons]

34. Something does not see right with the Mueller probe.

They are saying this is almost over.

What is the outcome of the Flynn case, the gates case, what about the manafort case.

Why didnt Mueller subpoena the president to testify? This happened to Bill Clinton on a civil case.

Where are these other indictments?

What about all the sealed indictments or sealed filings in the court system we heard about?

Is this only down to a case of Obstruction and thats it?

What happened to the money laundering or the back and forth between Stone, Guccifer, Wikileaks and a high up trump senior campaign member?

what about the scenario of McCabe, Rosenstein being witnesses to obstruction? Where is the case?

How does this all wrap up about the same time as Barr takes over, Rosenstein leaves, Senator Burr says no direct evidence of collusion and the president leaves the country during this time. It all seems coordinated?

Something is not right here and I am getting Nervious that Mueller might be playing into the Party.

[INdemo]

41. No Mueller will not fold.

I think the Republicans are just wishing is was over. You are correct there are other sealed indictments that would not have been filed if it was near the end

[lancelyons]

45. I think he already has.

Just my guess but I believe that by not issuing a subpoena on the president to testify, he has already folded.

Perhaps not because he wanted too but because (rosenstein, Whitaker, etc ) have narrowed what he can do and talk about.

We will find out

To much work still outstanding in courts for a report to be issued next week.

[MaryMagdaline]

36. Good analysis

[INdemo]

39. Normaly I would agree. But we are dealing with Republicans here

that have been compromised by Putin. So if Trump goes down as in resignation, so does Graham, McConnell amd other Republicans like Nunes.

[demigal]

40. Hope

I will wait for your analysis to prove true.

[madville]

43. I think it is about played out myself, worst case scenario is

Mueller gets called before Congress and publicly says there was no direct collusion between Trump and the Russians. I think it will be somewhat politically dangerous to bring him into a public hearing to give testimony if the investigation concludes without any charges against the major players.

[wiggs]

44. People forget the world of trouble Flynn is in. The judge who has seen everything related to Flynn

was PO'd and threw the word treason out there right before Flynn was going to be sentenced. Flynn's attorneys asked that sentencing be delayed so that Flynn could ponder ways to be more helpful.

Was Flynn just operating on his own? Doesn't make sense...he'd already been cooperating for a long time and must think he has more to tell. So let's conclude Flynn was NOT operating on his own with treasonous behavior. There's a huge story there.

Daily outrages and constant shoe-dropping tends to bury what would otherwise be big stories. Almost impossible to keep all the far reaching threads alive in media...but almost nothing points to an innocent conclusion for Trump world.

[sellitman]

48. Please be right.

Signed

A Nervous Nelly.

[randr]

50. I have a similar optimistic take as well

First, we know the Russians committed a major attack on our democracy during the last election.
Second, we know our judicial enforcement agencies were alarmed and went into action.
Third, we know that the Republicans and Trump were informed as to the urgency and seriousness of the attack.
Forth, we know they have done nothing in response; in fact, did everything they could to stop the investigative process. And continue to this day to interfere.
Fifth, we know from McCabe that the concern was and still is wide spread throughout agencies that Trump will try to interfere.
Lastly, we know that Trump is easily manipulated with flattery and by anyone who agrees with him.
My suspicion is that the judicial agencies are totally engaged and are playing Trump. I further speculate that the infamous letter from Barr was a set up. Barr intended to flatter the fat one and succeeding in gaining access.
Ultimately, in my best world, Barr is on the side of our Constitution and aware of the serious nature of what is about to come down.
Trump will be crying "et tu Brute'" before long.

[ScratchCat]

52. I tend to agree

with this. I have wondered to if the Barr letter was a "set up".

Also, It seems that there would be only two possible reasons why Barr, a former AG, would accept the nomination from Trump. He is either a die hard Trump guy or can easily be controlled by Trump, or he took the job to stop Trump. I see no indication he is some trump fanatic. If he didn't want to get involved, he didn't have to accept the nomination. So absent any concrete information that he is part of the Trump cult, it looks like he took the job to stop Trump. Hope I don't turn out wrong, but I think everyone who has seen the real non-public evidence along the way has decided to not take Trump's side on this.

[MLAA]

51. Really good OP and excellent dialogue posts. Thanks for starting this meaty discussion.

[duforsure]

53. Is this coming from Mueller's office, or people trying to pressure him ?

We don't know yet if this is from trump and Barr or not, so I don't think its done yet until I see its out. Then if Barr refuses to put it all out , or issues that could hurt trump politically using National Security as a cover, they'll regret it when it actually is all exposed , and them too. It will all be exposed , and if trump has tried to pressure Barr he should then publicly announce to Congress what he's done, which is again try to obstruct justice. If he doesn't he also could be facing serious legal issues for what he's done and helped him cover up.

[cilla4progress]

54. Like so much in politics...

It will be both better and worse than we think.

IOW, we will get some of what we are hoping for, but not all. There will be both good and bad news in this for us.

[MFGsunny]

55. Thank you, louis c! It's a vital discussion. We are all on pins & needles. n/t