If the 2020 election were today, Trump would lose - by Chris Cillizza andLauren Dezenski

[applegrove]

The Point

If the 2020 election were today, Trump would lose

Chris Cillizza CNN email

"SNIP.....

The data paints a simple but ominous picture for Trump: If the presidential election were held today, he would almost certainly lose. Here's the key insight from the Gallup data:

"Although much can change between now and Election Day 2020, a job approval rating of 50% or higher would presumably put Trump in good position to win a state in the presidential election. The 17 states with 50%+ approval ratings account for a combined total of 102 electoral votes. In contrast, the states in which Trump has an approval rating below 40% account for 201 electoral votes.

"In order to get to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, Trump would have to win all but one or two of the states in which his 2018 approval rating was between 41% and 49%."

Which puts a pretty fine point on the challenge facing Trump and his 2020 campaign team between now and November 3. But to put an even FINER point on it -- here are just a sampling of the states where Trump's approval rating is currently below 49%: Texas (41%), Pennsylvania (42%), Michigan (42%) and Florida (43%). Those four states have 103 electoral votes between them. And Trump won ALL of them in 2016.

.....SNIP"

[Wellstone ruled]

1. Hate to keep harping about Polls.

Something smells to high hell with these and other polls showing the Orange Turd with these numbers.

[No Vested Interest]

2. Wouldn't it depend on who he was running against? Just like it did in 2016?

I'd give anything to see him exit the White House for good tonight, and would never give him the time of day, let alone my vote.

However, we do know that there were those, particularly in some Mid-Western states, that voted against the Democratic candidate, based on dislike or greater of that Dem. candidate's personality and/or past actions, etc.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. No question about it

Trump is more popular now than on election day 2016, when his exit poll number was 38% favorable and 60% unfavorable. Hillary was 43-55.

We lost largely because Trump had a big edge among voters who viewed both unfavorably. That was 47%-30%, and 23% not wanting to respond.

I have no idea how likability can be discounted toward our 2020 nominee. We've already had an example of our nominee with 5% higher favorable rating, yet a loss in the electoral column. IMO, we don't want to get into a barking contest with Donald Trump. That is the same mindset who annually wants someone to shout, "You lie!" during the State of the Union address. We need someone who can fend off the unfair crap from all sources and directions and maintain a 50ish or above approval number.

[No Vested Interest]

5. I'm concerned about our candidates beating up on each other. We're already seeing some of that.

There seems to be a concerted effort to knock down Amy Klobuchar, whom I like very much.
I'm not sure I want her to be the Presidential nominee, - I'm still open to others not yet announced- but I like her ideas and her approach and style.

But some one(s) are avidly putting out memes against her - this early in the game.
It could be Republicans, or it could be rival Dems. - I don't know, but I sure don't like it at this phase of the race.

[Garrett78]

4. It's safe to say we won't be nominating someone who has been vilified for the last 25 years.

Last edited Fri Feb 22, 2019, 11:52 PM - Edit history (2)

We won PA and MI (by a very good margin on average) in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections. We won WI (by a very good margin on average) in 7 of the last 8 presidential elections.

It's not just that Trump is unpopular. His "strongly disapprove" number is around 50%, which is really high (though still 50 percentage points lower than it ought to be).

I like our chances.