Carpocalypse now: Lyft's founders are right -- we're in the endgame for cars

[littlemissmartypants]

Carpocalypse now: Lyft's founders are right — we're in the endgame for cars
Jim Edwards Mar 3, 2019, 4:44 AM

The founders of the ride-sharing app Lyft filed their IPO papers last week, and their vision for the company is dramatic. Lyft (which works a bit like Uber) is not just about getting you from A to B, they say. Rather, founders Logan Green and John Zimmer believe that car ownership is in permanent decline and they want to help it die, they write in their S-1 filing.

"We believe that the world is at the beginning of a shift away from car ownership to Transportation-as-a-Service, or TaaS. Lyft is at the forefront of this massive societal change," they told investors. "Car ownership has ... economically burdened consumers. US households spend more on transportation than on any expenditure other than housing. ... On a per household basis, the average annual spend on transportation is over $9,500, with the substantial majority spent on car ownership and operation."

Cars create "inequality," they argue. "The average cost of a new vehicle in the United States has increased to over $33,000, which most American households cannot afford," the IPO says. "We estimate over 300,000 Lyft riders have given up their personal cars because of Lyft."

They may be right.

Snip.

Much more at the link.

http://www.businessinsider.com/carpocalypse-cars-automobile-sales-data-us-europe-2019-3

[Ferrets are Cool]

1. That may be true in big metropolitan cities

but will never be true in smaller cities and towns of America.

[SharonClark]

2. Agree

[efhmc]

3. It will never be true in Texas. I drove from Houston airport yesterday evening

to my home (3,5 hrs.). Took my grandson to NASA yesterday (45 minutes) and to TAM the day before (1.5) hrs. I cannot imagine not having a vehicle to do those things.

[Voltaire2]

59. What if the vehicle showed up when you needed it and went away when you didn't?

That is the Taas future they are talking about.

[Arazi]

62. Those 3 trips would have cost a couple hundred dollars w Lyft. Personal car cost was a fraction

Even factoring in wear and tear, insurance, and gas.

Plus those who live in less urban or rural areas can wait a long time for a ride, and yes there are actually some areas have no ride service available for any cost

[Voltaire2]

66. So imagine Lyft doesn't have driver costs anymore.

The point isn't what the cost might be today, it is what it will be in the relative near future. As soon as autonomous vehicles are a reality the cost of private car ownership is higher than on-demand transportation. Current per mile operating costs are between 0.70 and 0.75.

[Arazi]

82. Maybe but we can't even get internet to these places now

Truly, zero internet

If even Comcast has abandoned them, they're fucked on Lyft (or Uber)

[littlemissmartypants]

88. Excellent point. This is an issue that hasn't been dealt with, full of empty promises

Providers have focused more population density and technology upgrades than on actually providing service. Really great point, Arazi.

[Voltaire2]

92. As noted this only applies to the 80%

of the population living in urban areas.

[efhmc]

95. Talking to my daughter in Austin yesterday and we agree that this concept is great for the inner

city/urban areas but not so good for the rest of us who are in small towns and need to go to even smaller towns for business. Tomorrow I am driving to our family ranch which is 1.5 hours from my house. I cannot even imagine having someone else drive me. I need to take items there and bring items back for which I need a truck. How is that suppose to work?

[RichardRay]

68. Nor in Wyoming, eastern Oregon, northeastern California

Or in any of the other less populated parts of the country, those are just the parts of the country where I’ve lived. I think a less auto intensive future is inevitable, and it shouldn’t be driven by internal combustion vehicles, but there are a lot of us who would be housebound without POV’s.

[efhmc]

96. Exactly. There are too many areas of the country that are still very far

apart and the best way to get there is by ones own personal vehicle. It is the fastest, least expensive and most economical way to go.

[marylandblue]

4. The end of car ownership will go hand in hand with the redesign of cities and work

More people will work from home or live closer to work, and cities will become more compact, more like what they were before cars.

[kcr]

8. If this happens, it won't be because of Lyft.

The gig economy model destroys labor, which in turn destroys cities.

[lapfog_1]

35. Urbmon

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World_Inside

1971 Robert Silverburg

[littlemissmartypants]

42. Very interesting! Thanks for sharing this, lapfog_1.

War, starvation, crime and birth control have been eliminated. Life is now totally fulfilled and sustained within Urban Monads (Urbmons), mammoth thousand-floor skyscrapers arranged in "constellations", where the shadow of one building does not fall upon another. An Urbmon is divided into 25 self-contained "cities" of 40 floors each, in ascending order of status, with administrators occupying the highest level. Each building can hold approximately 800,000 people, with excess population totalling three billion a year transferred to new Urbmons, which are continually under construction.

Looks like a really good read. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World_Inside

[Liberal In Texas]

57. One of my favorite books! n/t

[Bettie]

5. Just what I was going to say

but then, some people think 30 minutes is a long drive.

Out here in the hinterlands, 30 minutes is to the grocery store.

[littlemissmartypants]

10. It's already true in my little town.

I give rides frequently. A percentage of my friends can't afford to buy cars. I have one friend that all she can afford is cheap cars. Unfortunately, they keep blowing up, because they are pieces of crap to begin with. But she has to get to work, somehow and she needs one in case she has to make an emergency trip for herself or her children. She can only pay so much.

Everything is a crisis if you are poor and most single mothers are poor. Car ownership is not a big priority with the younger generation either. There are many variables at play when it comes to car ownership.

[Ferrets are Cool]

18. You post is so sad in THIS America. nt

[littlemissmartypants]

21. It is sad. Women are always holding the short end of the stick if they

Don't have financial stability. The next best thing is family and friends.

[Ferrets are Cool]

22. My wife's daughter is

in this position. She lives paycheck to paycheck, with us having to help quite often. And she is depressed most of the time. It is saddening and maddening that "working hard" isn't enough. I get so tired of that old cliche..."pull yourself up by your own bootstraps". It just doesn't work that way.

[littlemissmartypants]

24. It really doesn't. I understand. More people are just barely making it and

Those people are often women with children. I worry about the next generation. What in the world will it be like for them?

[Adrahil]

81. Exactly.

I could not function where I live without at least one car. And one would be damned inconvenient.

[NBachers]

6. So it's car owners, not the clogging infestation of Lyft and Uber drivers, who are the problem?

I'll remember that on the multiple times every day when one of these Transportation-as-Service futurists stops in the middle of traffic, puts on their flashers, and sits there poking their phone; often when there's a parking space right beside them or right down the block.

[DontBooVote]

40. Wow. That's what you got out of the OP and the discussion of it? Again, wow.

[littlemissmartypants]

43. This is a wild thread/OP.

There's almost something for everyone here.

Fear not, DontBooVote.

[Voltaire2]

60. The drivers are going to disappear too.

Which is a different but related crisis. The robot cars will be much better at on demand availability and will never disobey the driving rules.

[lame54]

7. Then they jack up the prices

[littlemissmartypants]

45. Yep. That too. nt

[Devil Child]

64. Bingo! n/t

[exboyfil]

9. If it was just me

I could easily see giving up my car when I retire. If I could get back into shape, I might even now with my work 4 mile away. Rideshare in the winter.

[safeinOhio]

11. There are lots of horses around today.

100years from now there will be lots of cars around too.

[littlemissmartypants]

12. Funny you should mention that.

I have a friend that rides her horse to church. She'll soon be passing by on her way home.

[CrispyQ]

20. They should have to pick up after their horse like I pick up after my dog.

There is a horse rider in our neighborhood. I've never actually seen them, just what their horse leaves behind. It's never landed on my property but my neighbor behind me has had to clean horse manure from her sidewalk.

[littlemissmartypants]

23. She cleans up just as much crap

As she gets from people. It's all farmland except for the church land where the parking lot was poured. She ties him up on the fence that separates the church from the adjacent farm. He hasn't crapped on the preacher, yet. So I'm guessing, it's all good. To bad you don't have a garden.

Or a garden of your mind... that might actually be helpful.

[CrispyQ]

25. I live in a metro area, with paved streets & sidewalks.

When there's a big pile of dung on the tiny pedestrian island by the highway where cars are passing at 60+ MPH, it's annoying.

[littlemissmartypants]

26. I understand. That's totally inappropriate.

Do you have cops on horseback?

[CrispyQ]

27. No, but we have cops on bicycles.

[littlemissmartypants]

34. That's cool. We only have four traffic lights so either

Probably wouldn't be necessary here. At least the bikes don't poop!

[CrispyQ]

52. I live near one of those stupid high-speed highways that has traffic lights every mile.

I've seen so many drivers run red lights at these intersections. You know, cuz they just got up to speed from the last stupid light. They don't seem able to time them so you can hit all green.

Maybe the horse was scared. It seems to be a favored pooping spot.

[littlemissmartypants]

89. Sounds like s/he had a right to be scared. Sounds extremely dangerous. nt

[Voltaire2]

71. Around 20 million horses for about 100 million people - 1915

Around 10 million horses for about 300 million people - 2015

Cars are indeed not going to disappear, they just will become hobbies.

[anarch]

13. combined with more locally sourced goods (i.e. less need for shipping things like produce, etc.)

and maybe increased use of smaller electric or hydrogen vehicles for local/regional personal transportation (and better public transportation options in general), sensible rail systems, etc., you could seriously cut down on carbon emissions with an approach like this.

I wonder if Lyft is working on AI themselves? Well, I know a bunch of companies are...we could end up with mostly driverless cars someday, and fewer of them, and mostly electric.

Well it's a thought anyway....

[littlemissmartypants]

46. I'm ready for robots.

But then, I expected to have a flying car by now and we see how that worked out.

[littlemissmartypants]

14. If only someone would invent high speed rail...

Oh, wait...

[Midwestern Democrat]

15. You don't fully appreciate the freedom of having a car until you spend a few days without it.

I spent a few days in New York City and when I got back home and got back in my car and drove out of the airport, I felt a sudden rush of freedom - I wasn't reliant on scheduled transportation for the first time in several days - I could drive wherever and whenever I felt like it.

[littlemissmartypants]

16. There's nothing like the feeling of the wind in your hair. nt

[exboyfil]

30. Rush - Red Barchetta

[Verse 1]
My uncle has a country place
That no one knows about
He says it used to be a farm
Before the Motor Law
And on Sundays I elude the eyes
And hop the turbine freight
To far outside the wire
Where my white-haired uncle waits

[Verse 2]
Jump to the ground
As the Turbo slows to cross the borderline
Run like the wind
As excitement shivers up and down my spine
Down in his barn
My uncle preserved for me an old machine
For fifty-odd years
To keep it as new has been his dearest dream

[Verse 3]
I strip away the old debris
That hides a shining car
A brilliant red Barchetta
From a better, vanished time
We fire up the willing engine
Responding with a roar
Tires spitting gravel
I commit my weekly crime

[Bridge]
Wind in my hair
Shifting and drifting
Mechanical music
Adrenaline surge

[littlemissmartypants]

39. Excellent.

I haven't heard this in so long, but I have loved it for a long time. I was way overdue for a listen. Thank you for sharing this, exboyfil! ❤

[exboyfil]

41. Your welcome

I love Rush. Next to The Who they are my favorite band.

Also check out the story that inspired the song.

http://www.2112.net/powerwindows/transcripts/19731100roadandtrack.htm

[littlemissmartypants]

48. Cool! Awesome share!

I learned to drive on a Datsun 240z and my first car was a Triumph Spitfire. My favorite car was my silver TransAm. I had a whip style CB antenna as these were the days before mobile phones. I loved that car. Only one speeding ticket, but I had a radar detector, too. I was a lucky girl.

[hunter]

55. The "freedom" of cars an illusion.

You're only free to go where you're allowed to go within the time constraints that bind you.

How often are you more than a few hundred yards from your car?

What do you see of the world beyond that?

Home, work, shopping, over and over and over again. It's hell.

When I was young and irresponsible I used to be an avid trespasser, walking, running, climbing places no one burdened by a car could go.

My own children and a good number of my nephews and nieces live in big cities. It's a joy to see them get around without their cars.

Cars allowed people who could afford cars to separate themselves from people who could not.

When the "wrong sort" of people were able to afford cars they were terrorized and harassed when they traveled.

How many relationships have become non-consensual because one of the parties couldn't get a ride home?

How many people have been killed and maimed by cars.

I hate cars.

It pisses me off every day that I have to own one to function as an "adult" in this society.

The car culture needs to end. It's killing us and the natural environment of our planet.

[SoCalDem]

65. I may actually go car-less soon

I am by myself now and with insurance & registration only getting more expensive, Uber/Lyft seems more interesting to me now.

I'll be 70 next month, and I do not go to many places and I do not enjoy driving anymore.

Don't know how much it costs to use their services, but it's something to consider

[Adrahil]

83. Well! You certainly told us!

Don't own a car then. I like cars. I enjoy driving them. I just want them to become more environmentally friendly.

[hunter]

93. My wife and I were Los Angeles commuters when we met.

One to two hours every work day on the freeway, much of it in stop-and-go traffic.

By some planning and greater good fortune we've been able to avoid that lifestyle since the mid 'eighties.

I work at home mostly. We can see my wife's work down the hill from our house.

But everything in our small city is still built for the convenience of car owners.

People who don't own cars are expected to suck it up by selfish car culture even when public transportation options are scarce or non-existent.

The planet simply can't handle billions of car owners. Something is going to give.

Ideally we will create pleasant urban areas having excellent public transportation where most of the world's people will live quite happily without cars.

I'm not saying you'd have to live there.

[Mr. Smith]

86. You're blaming cars for rape? Lighten up, man.

"How many relationships have become non-consensual because one of the parties couldn't get a ride home?

[hunter]

94. I once exited a relationship that had become non-consensual by jumping out of a moving car.

I left quite a lot of skin, blood, and tears on the street. The bus ride home was most uncomfortable. Good thing there was a bus.

This was before cell phones, and my nearest friends and family were a few hundred miles away.

Like it or not, cars are like guns in some respects. For some people cars are not utilitarian tools, they're a power trip.

[3Hotdogs]

17. Three seniors in my house. We gave up one of three cars because of Lyft.

[dixiegrrrrl]

19. Gonna be a hell of a fight from Big Oil, car makers, ancillary services

Which is probably why a lot of creative effort is going into a different kind of car..electric, etc. so that the auto-mobile factor continues.

OTOH, can't think of a better time to be pushing for an end to gas/oil using based transportation.

[littlemissmartypants]

31. I'm shopping for my electric car now.

I may post in the auto group to get feedback. I've totally divested fossil fuels and what I drive now gets 45 mpg with conservative driving. I plan all my trips for efficency and don't go anywhere I don't have to go.

I'm a homebody though. Not everyone can stay home and off the road. In many ways it's like mini Texas here. It takes a long way to get places. Lots of time is wasted getting to and fro.

You used to be able to take the train all the way to the beach from here, but they dug up the tracks which ended the train. Now they are talking about building it back.

[Voltaire2]

67. The big car makers are seeing it as an opportunity.

[muntrv]

28. Stagnant wages, more than car ownership, has burdened consumers.

[littlemissmartypants]

49. Excellent point. nt

[snowybirdie]

29. Are they thinking

of all the folks with kids, errands, sports practices, vacations, shopping? They are focused on one demographic. People with wealth, much like themselves Dumb!

[littlemissmartypants]

90. That's what it made me think, snowybirdie.

The whole concept smacks of privilege.

[D_Master81]

32. In cities maybe

But where i live in rural Indiana there's no way cars will become obsolete. I know no one thats ever used Uber except when they go to Chicago or on a trip.

[trev]

38. My friends who use Uber

do so to get around town in the suburbs when they don't feel like driving, or are going to be drinking. When they want to go longer distances, they drive themselves. They don't use Uber or Lyft to go between neighboring towns.

[Adrahil]

84. I use Uber when I travel.

Often in place of renting a car. But not always. Uber is fine when I can plan my trip and I have time to wait for the car. But that is not always the case.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

33. We already have "transportation as a service." It's called public transportation.

Public transportation is definitely ripe for a redesign, no matter where you live. Investing in public transportation with the resources and zeal investors will lavish on these kinds of "disrupters" would be a game-changer.

[trev]

36. So what wil the Lyft drivers drive?

I used to drive for Lyft. They require a well-maintained, somewhat late-model sedan in order to participate. This is not a particularly inexpensive car. Lyft cannot exist without cars.


Even if they're right (which I doubt), it's going to take decades to wean Americans off our personal vehicles. I live in the PNW, where there are not a lot of big cities, little to poor public transportation, and trucks and SUVs are legion. I don't see people giving these up anytime soon. A lot of car manufacturers recognize this, and are in the process of discontinuing cars in favor of these larger vehicles.

At the moment, the rage is for self-driving cars. Even Lyft is in on this venture. https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/lyft-files-for-ipo-sec/

[aikoaiko]

37. Math doesn't work for me.

My normal place of business is just a few miles away with a year lyft/uber cost of:
$7500 - $30 to and from work with tip 5 days/week for 50 weeks

But I've been transferred for a temporary work assignment (for 2 years) to a place 65 miles away with a yearly cost of:
$56,000 - $225 to and from work with a tip 5 days/week for 50 weeks.

Having a car is still "freedom" in many ways.

But if you lived in a city where you walked to work and had a grocery store nearby your residence, you could get rid of a car. Many already did long before uber or lyft.

[Lucid Dreamer]

44. I don't trust Lyft drivers or...

I don't trust Lyft drivers or Uber drivers or cab drivers.

I'll drive myself for as long as I can.

[Sherman A1]

63. Agreed

No way in H*ll I am getting in the car of a complete stranger. I will certainly use a cab from time to time, but their vehicles are well marked, regulated and it has much more history of getting the job done correctly.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

47. If you can't afford an inexpensive car

and surprise, surprise, there are a lot of them out there that cost significantly less than 33k (35k is what I've been seeing lately), then using Lyft or Uber or any such service is going to likewise be out of the question.

If I ever move to another city, I intend it to be one where there is good public transportation, and then I'd probably give up owning a car, and just rent one as needed.

Oh, and to use Lyft or Uber you need a smart phone. Not everyone has one.

300,000 Lyft riders giving up personal cars seems like a lot, but how many millions of Americans own cars they use every day? A quick on-line look shows that some 90% of households own at least one car. So no, cars aren't going to disappear any time soon.

[littlemissmartypants]

51. Thank you for the analysis. I appreciate it.

Last edited Mon Mar 4, 2019, 06:11 AM - Edit history (1)

This turned out to be a fairly interesting post.

ETA:excellent point about the smart phone!

[Hermit-The-Prog]

50. most travelling fits within electric vehicle range

Most commutes are within the range of electric vehicles, even with old, flooded lead-acid batteries. The only reason EVs are still not ubiquitous is because an EV eliminates too many revenue streams to manufacturers and suppliers.

We should've had EVs readily available for the past 60 years, at least.

[NutmegYankee]

78. EV is still a car.

And often a high performing one with the torque curves of electric motors. I personally laugh at OPs like this - I live in a more rural area and I know too many people who’d rather die than have their car taken from them. I have neighbors with plugin hybrids and they love them. What no one would love is not having a car.

These posts are wishful thing at best, naïveté at worst.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

79. lyft indulges in wishful thinking

People love independence; they do not want to depend upon someone else to transport them if they can do it themselves, conveniently.

EVs can maintain that independence, greatly reduce pollution, free up money for other things, and lower the cost of petroleum for real needs (such as heavy equipment and long haul trucks).

[enid602]

53. LA

Los Angeles is encouraging the construction of Transportation Oriented Developments. If apartments are built within .2 miles of a heavy rail station (there are 200 in Southern California), developers do not have to include parking spaces or garages. More and more, there are rail stations alongside cultural, sports and entertainment venues. The millennials love this.

[beachbum bob]

54. they are full of themselves. Not all of america lives in huge metro areas...simple error in

judgement that has huge ramifications. We are not all New York City OR LA

[littlemissmartypants]

58. Great points.

If we look too far into the future LA and NYC will be floating cities anyway.

[Yavin4]

61. But will that always be the case going forward?

More people will be living in huge metro areas than outside of them. The suburban/exurban culture itself is in decline.

[Voltaire2]

69. 80% of the population lives in urban areas.

Nobody claimed it was "all". The point is that people living in those areas are experiencing a transformation in transportation.

[TexasBushwhacker]

75. And not all metro areas have good public transportation

If I lived in Chicago, San Francisco or NYC, having a car would be optional. I'm sure there are other cities as well. They all have great public transit systems. In Houston, riding the bus for most folks will double or triple the time it takes them to get from point A to point B. Park and Ride is an option for folks who work downtown or in the medical center, but otherwise you really need a car.

[gyroscope]

85. "We are not New York City or LA"

and LA is NOT New York City.

The former is almost totally car dependent. It is almost impossible to live in LA without a car.

[moondust]

70. Still a lot of cars in Europe.

Despite public transportation going almost everywhere.

[Xolodno]

73. True...however...

When we were in Italy, their "freeways" were only two lanes each way. I live in So Cal, four lanes one way isn't even near enough. While in Paris, there were curb side car rentals...and the cars there...are all sub compact or compact. And not once did I experience a traffic jam like we do here.

And while we were there, I didn't rent a car, all the sites we wanted to see were near public transportation. A relative of ours went to Italy and did rent a car....for one day. Because one of the sites they wanted to see wasn't near public transportation...well that's not true, they didn't want to wait for the bus and wanted to tour the countryside.

[moondust]

74. Lots and lots of bikes, too.

Even older men and women, some probably in their 70s or 80s, riding bikes to the grocery, etc.

Of course much European infrastructure was designed and built before the car culture came along so a lot of the streets are narrow and some even cobblestone. That makes it much easier to get around without a car. Still, some cities like Paris have had to use taxes and laws to restrict car traffic to try to reduce pollution.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

72. Kick

[TheBlackAdder]

76. It won't kill off cars, but could for seniors, and reduce cars in multi-driver households.

.

I live in the suburbs, in NJ. You need a car to go everywhere.

Seniors, who only drive a couple of times a week might save the expense of maintaining a car.

I have four drivers in my household. One car is 2-years old, the others are 7 or more years old. I pay $9600 a year just in car insurance. No accidents, three kids are 24, 20 and 19. My insurance is $1600 for full coverage on the newer car. The oldest car onlt has liability.

The gas, maintenance, and insurance amount to around $15K a year! I don't drive often, so if I reduce one vehicle, I could either use one of the others, when they are around, or Lyft/Uber to the store and back. My son took Uber to school, which is 20 minutes away, and with tip it was a sawbuck!

Two vehicle homes might be able to reduce to a single vehicle, for the long trips and utility purposes.

.

[Eko]

77. It would have to cost less than $10 for a trip

to work and the same back to be less than my car payment. It doesn't.

[CrossingTheRubicon]

80. The future is driverless pods. Most summoned by apps. Some privately owned.

Crazy teenagers in the near future will get busted for taking old "gas cars" on roadways where they've been banned.

[Demovictory9]

87. not true in Los angeles / southern Cali

[littlemissmartypants]

91. What a fun and interesting thread this turned out to be!

Thanks, everyone for your opinions and input. ❤