So how in the hell does this criminal's poll numbers keep going up?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

NBC/WSJ up to 46% highest since October.

He's worse so only variable is what we are doing? Not saying we should stop, not at all. But what other explanation is there?
Proof last week he committed a felony and his numbers go up ?????

[2naSalit]

1. Purchased pollsters?

[Wellstone ruled]

15. You are getting close.

[lagomorph777]

19. Yup, WSJ is Rupert Murdoch

[Wellstone ruled]

25. Honestly,

it cost X number of dollars ,to first,set up the polling questions,second,establish the parameters of those questions,thirdly,this is the most important part,it is the what data base will be used. The last is the most important part of any poll.

Again,who is your customer,or like I say,who the hell is paying the freight.

Oh btw,if you work one of these polls,chances are you sign a NDA. Tough Sh*tski,mine expired several years ago.

[lagomorph777]

26. Expired NDA....hhhmmmm... do tell!

I'd love to hear some of the tricks these guys use!

[Wellstone ruled]

29. A couple,

Structure of the questions to be asked as well as your voice inflection of your voice. Key thing is when you are handed a Call Sheet,and of course you will be calling into different time zones and one has to be mindful of that. Suppertime calls will be the toughest to get responses and if you are doing Political,will the hard core will do the full response,those whom are fence sitters,they tend to hang up on you.

Figured out the first time what my call sheet target area was,and the Polling slant from the get go. When your Area Codes and Phone prefixes jive,hmmm.

[lagomorph777]

32. Interesting - they coach you on your inflections.

I could see that being pretty significant.

[Wellstone ruled]

37. If your team lead

thinks that you need it,yes. Worked a Boiler Room,so was used to the being "on" thing.

[democratisphere]

27. Anything Rupert Murdoch is involved in is a criminal enterprise in

support of the drumpf regime.

[VOX]

20. Would not be shocked. n/t

[maxsolomon]

2. People get numb.

He's turned chaos into normal and people just tune out.

However, April 15th is coming.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. But numbness wouldn't account for a rise. Nt

[Kaleva]

9. One doesn't know if there was an actual rise.

As the change is within the margin of error.

[former9thward]

35. Other polls have shown the same.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

It is traditional on DU to attack polls one doesn't like and tout polls that one does. Now we have posters claiming Trump has bought the WSJ and NBC to get his poll numbers up. And at the same time they also claim he is broke. I am trying to do the math on that one.

Polls are what they are. Snapshots at any given time.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

36. Thank you. I could not have said that better myself

All I can figure is that "he's way out there but my personal life ( don't follow politics) is fine. Me, my family, and my friends have jobs, boom done. "

"He hasn't done anything bad to affect me and they are saying the other side is a bunch of socialist. I don't know what that is but it sure sounds bad."

[Kaleva]

57. Are you saying the OP likes the poll he or she cited?

Looking at at the polls you provided a link to, Rasmussen shows a slight decline in approval numbers in the past 3 weeks. Overall, Trump's numbers in that poll have been pretty much stable over the past several months. Same with the Reuters/Ipsos poll.

My guess is that if one is mindful of the margin of error in the polls listed, one would see not much of a change in Trump's approval ratings over the past few weeks or even months.

[former9thward]

59. You didn't read the thread, did you?

Poster after poster claiming Trump bought the poll. A poll run by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal. If you want to believe that fantasy, go for it.

[Kaleva]

60. None of that refutes what I said in my post that you first responded to.

[lagomorph777]

17. April 15th, 2019 is a date which will ive in infamy.

When millions of Americans discover that the Reptilian Party hiked the taxes on most of us.

The Reptilians will pay for this.

[maxsolomon]

21. you think?

I hope so, but the GOP will muddy the waters with their noise machine, telling everyone the cut would have been perfect but for those meddling Libtards who want to take your guns and cows and incandescent bulbs.

That will fit in with the narrative Americans have heard since 1980, and they'll say "Gee, who knows?"

[MANative]

3. Selective demographics in polling?

IDK, can't explain (and really don't want to face the idea) that so many people are so f*cking stupid.

[NewJeffCT]

4. most people aren't paying that much attention

1) Trump crows about how the economy is better than ever and without a coordinated rebuttal, it passes.
2) Most people don't pay attention to the daily BS spewing from the White House as long as they are personally doing okay.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

39. Operative word "coordinated effort". Pisses

me off the most for the lack of a unified message. Everytime I suggest it everyone says ..we are not a bunch of cattle. But without a savvy media strategy we have no game. Even when it's clearly obvious that they are spreading the socialist word like it a swear word...we do nothing. Wish we had gotten that guy who was young and media savvy to lead DNC.

[Kaleva]

6. Can't tell if the poll numbers went up as it's in the margin of error.

Could just as well stayed the same.

[LonePirate]

7. Possible effect similar to that w/ B. Clinton. People rally around a President targeted by Congress.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

41. Yes ...run the risk of people seeing him as the victim

[underpants]

8. You can't have a horse race with only one horse

The networks (and their affiliates especially) NEED it

[tritsofme]

10. This isn't really evidence of his numbers going up, but staying stable.

The movement does not have statistical significance.

[Kaleva]

13. +1

[uponit7771]

30. +1, well withing MOE and still withing range for 538 and RCP

[athena]

11. 538 still has him at 42.1%. (n/t)

[lunatica]

12. If we believe everything these "pollsters"tell us

we’re as gullible as the MAGATs.

The Blue Wave says this poll is hogwash. Which one are we going to believe?

[lagomorph777]

33. Yeah, the Blue Wave overwhelmed even the punditry in real time.

As with any tsunami, as the ocean recedes from the shore again, don't get cocky and go beachcombing. Bad things will happen to you. The wave eventually returns.

[PeeJ52]

14. People don't care. Nothing is being done but talk. Nothing is even happening on Fox News.

It's all just jibber jabber. People are numb. It's the same stuff, different day. It doesn't matter.

[HopeAgain]

16. Because people

Americans are finally getting the wake-up call that has been long overdue. Even progressives bought into the "Manifest Destiny" and "American exceptional-ism" bullshit which includes the false belief that we as a people were somehow above the vulnerability to electing a tin horn dictator and living under a capitalist plutocracy.

Historical events such as the Great Depression, World War Two and the seemingly endless resources of a vast unexploited continent shaped us in a special way that lulled us into believing that we were just better. But now we are finding out that we are just as vulnerable as any country to democratic failure, bigotry and a class-based society.

Perhaps in the end this will be good. Americans will realize that enlightenment requires a focus on education, equality depends on a tireless crusade, and most of all, true democracy will require vigilance. Trump happened because we are no better than any population and we were lulled into complacency by believing we were.

[lagomorph777]

34. Maybe a bit like Europe:

They had Rome (a mixed bag), followed by the Dark Ages religious and political oppression, Renaissance and Enlightenment (better times), then Ottoman, Austro-Hungarian Napoleonic and German empires (bad times again), then WWI and WWII (even worse), and then the post-war Pax Americana (better, I'd like to think!), and again the rise of Fascism.

We are linked to some of the recent cycles; need a new Enlightenment like the one that (at least on paper) guided our founding. This time, we need to make those lofty words a reality.

[MagickMuffin]

18. FAKE Polls

I believe the polls are just internal amongst the Bigwigs to have a horserace.

[Act_of_Reparation]

22. I doubt that very much.

Don't ever underestimate the stupidity of the American public. That's what got us into this mess to begin with.

[MagickMuffin]

24. Russia and propaganda hand in hand

But I still think the network execs fudge the numbers. I certainly don't put anything pass them.

[Takket]

23. I'm absolutely dumbfounded.

[EveHammond13]

28. read George Lakoff to understand it

[frogmarch]

31. It's just trumpers stickin' it to the demoncrats.

That's all.

[spin]

38. People knew Trump was no saint when they voted for him. ...

However they will back impeachment if there is solid evidence that Putin illegally conspired with Trump to defeat Hillary. It is beginning to look like the Mueller investigation isn’t going to produce that evidence.

So now it appears the Democrats in the House plan to investigate all Trump’s business dealings and everything he has done while in office in hopes of finding something to impeach him for or to ruin his presidency. They don’t have any particular crime in mind but are willing to spend the next two years trying to find one.

The base of the Democratic Party supports this approach but other people just want the president and Congress to work together to find solutions for the problems our nation faces. They are sick of never ending investigations launched by both Republicans and Democrats. In fact they are on the verge of being sick of Republicans and Democrats period. Trump and Bernie were both seen as outsiders during the last presidential race and they both drew big crowds at their campaign events.

I feel it is fine to investigate but not to make it appear that it is all we are going to do until the next election. If we play that game and fail to find something serious that Trump has done we might find him re-elected in 2020 and the Republicans gaining back control of both the House and the Senate.

[shanny]

40. They don't.

He has a ceiling. He has a floor. And there is both statistical noise and on occasion a thumb on the scale.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

44. Agree. I follow Gallup weekly tracking. Comes in

Lower than these snapshot polls. But 43 is his ceiling. Maybe the Cohen accusations haven't had an affect yet.

[ooky]

42. Approval numbers going down?

M$M is on it! If its not a track meet ratings decline, "Progressive" and "GEICO" pay less for their insurance commercials.

[standingtall]

43. There is no way on earth he is at 46%

He only got 46% in the 2016 election. So any poll that has him basically losing 0 support sense then after 2 years of countless scandals plus trying to take healthcare away is total bs.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

45. Last Gallup weekly approve 44 disapprove 52 (2/10)

[standingtall]

47. I believe his true approval rating is 42% at the highest

and low as 35% and stays in that 7 point window. I don't really trust Gallup either. While not an overtly right leaning poll it does lean right. There are probably more polls now than ever and I expects many of them only exist for the purpose of driving up Trump and republicans polling averages.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

48. Here's the latest state by state. MI WI & PA at 42%

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211865035

[sarcasmo]

50. Landline polling.

[Locutusofborg]

46. Trump got 46% of the popular vote

At the same point in time, first week of March, 2011, President Obama was at 46% in the Gallup Poll.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx

[Laura PourMeADrink]

49. Makes sense since I read if he's got approval in

The mid 40s in a state he can win it.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211865035

[Botany]

51. The game is rigged

End of story

[Laura PourMeADrink]

55. Like trump will be elected end of story?

Nothing we do will matter?

[stopbush]

52. Please stop! Making a mountain out of a molehill, just like the media wants.

Forget these polls. I can’t believe people get upset about shit like this.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

56. Ya well if you look at our path it's not that simple babe

[Joe941]

53. Outlier.

[Awsi Dooger]

54. Incumbency

People don't like to admit they made a mistake. During the first term it is very normal and logical for the incumbent to suffer during the midterm and then rise in popularity as re-election approaches. I have been stating that all along but the Happy Adjusters are always trying to pretend Trump will be the exception.

We need some type of economic collapse to keep Trump's approval down and drop his re-election prospects. Otherwise the independent voters who shifted away in 2017 and 2018 are going to return in substantial number.

That's really the only number that matters anyway...how independents view Trump. We will not win based on motivation or turnout. Our fate is solely in the hands of swing independents. Hillary never had any chance to win big in 2016, not when the polling always indicated that independents either preferred narrowly Trump or were basically split.

A key group to watch is the so-called #NeverHillary Independents. They didn't like Trump in 2016 but voted for him anyway due to severe distaste for Hillary. That group shifted away from Trump last year but it wasn't severe...51% disapprove and 47% approve. We desperately need that group to remain under water on Trump's approval.

Trump did not expect to win in 2016 and Republicans generally did not expect him to win. The turnout and degree of preference among white voters was a surprise. Now they have four years to boost enthusiasm and turnout among that group. I've seen it in my suburban Miami neighborhood. Waves of Republican canvassers even at odd times of the year. That's one of the reasons Trump continues to cater to his base. The GOP believes there is still more out there, and also that the swing independents will eventually return to him.

As long as he stays at 42% range on 538, we are fine. We can't let that rise to 44% or thereabouts. It will mean the swing independents have returned.

[lindysalsagal]

58. Temporary bump from uninformed fools who think he "took on" n korea. Plus,

subjective buffering of their fear (they all live in fear 24/7) that Cohen will reveal what a criminal frump is.