Manafort will be pardoned.

[garybeck]

that is my personal prediction but I would bet more than a few pennies on it.

He showed his loyalty. He lied for Trump. he lied again for Trump. His sentence was longer because he continued to lie. For Trump.

Trump will use this as an example to anyone else who is willing to lie and cover for him. Cover my ass, lie for me, and you'll go free.

it won't be long till Manafort is a free man.

Thankfully there are some state charges in front of him now.

[Lindsay]

1. Don't forget that Manafort has now been indicted

by the state of NY. Not eligible for a presidential pardon if that one goes to trial and he's found guilty.

[garybeck]

3. yes, that is in the last line of my post. thankfully there are new state charges. yay!

n/t

[hlthe2b]

4. Not by NYState (yet)... NYC attorney Cyrus Vance filed 15 felony charges today.

[FarPoint]

21. Let think here....

Question...Does the Pardon get him released now from Federal Prison wherein he can get Bail for the New Your Indictments? Essentially, be out on the streets pending a trial, which can be delayed...???

[hlthe2b]

2. Why? Before NYC Attorney Cy Vance filed 15 felony charges today, there might have been some benefit

to a pardon. Now? I don't see it. Unless NYC and likely NYState eventually are so incompetent they can't get a conviction, the guy is going to speed considerable time in jail, regardless of his Federal convictions.

[garybeck]

8. read my post

he will be pardoned as an example to other witnesses

the fact that he is still facing state charges is besides the point. he will still lose the 9+ years he is facing in jail from this pardon. that alone is his reward for lying. the state charges, we don't know what will happen and are out of Trump's hands. maybe he'll start telling the truth on those.

[shanti]

9. He's going to find

state prison MUCH different then club fed!

[hlthe2b]

12. His own "advisors" are telling him NO to a pardon as it won't help him in 2020.

He's not subject to predictions, frankly as he's ridiculously erratic, but I don't really see a lot of upside to him doing so. Maybe if he pardons Roger Stone (if the only point is symbolic)....

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

14. The fact that he would no longer have 5th Amendment cover is the problem

for Trump. He hasn’t been cooperating with prosecutors so far, but he’d have to if he was pardoned, at least as far as his cooperation didn’t relate to the new state charges (which don’t seem to relate to Trump anyhow). Manafort probably knows things about Trump and Russia that he hasn’t told prosecutors. Yet.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

5. Why would Trump bother now that Manafort has been indicted

for state crimes? Manafort’s only hope for less prison time now is cooperation with prosecutors. And if he’s pardoned for the federal crimes he no longer can plead the 5th - he has to tell everything.

[berksdem]

7. +1

[apnu]

22. Why would Trump do this at all?

He's gone to war with Cohen, who of all people should get a pardon, but something soured there and I don't see Cohen ever getting one now. How do we know Manafort also has a sour relationship with Trump. Didn't Trump, early on, try to gaslight us about how he hardly knew Manafort? Or was it someone else... who can keep track these days.

[berksdem]

6. as long as

NY can make the new charges against him stick it wont matter if the orange maggot pardons him.

[manor321]

10. Then the NY judge can put him in jail until his trial. I'm sure NY prosecutors will ask for that.

[AlexSFCA]

11. Double Jeopardy

the state charges will be dismissed.

[jberryhill]

17. They are not on the same things

[roamer65]

13. Nope. NYS isn't fucking around.

They are going to take down Manafort and the whole Dump crime family.

Dump fucked over New Yorkers on the SALT limitation, now NYS is going to fuck back.

[DinahMoeHum]

20. Especially not this woman. . .

Letitia (Tish) James, AG of NY state

[gratuitous]

15. I disagree

Pardoning Manafort would be pointless. Trump won't derive a direct benefit, particularly since state charges (which Trump can't pardon) have now been filed against Manafort. Giving him a pardon on his federal crimes would stir up the opposition (not that we need it), wouldn't save Manafort, and would cause the Sensible Centrists to doubt their Sensible Centrist position on Trump ("Let's wait another six months to see if Trump makes The Pivot and grows into the office" ). The crude cost/benefit analysis Trump applies to everything doesn't pay off for him soon enough. Manafort is Manafucked.

[atreides1]

16. What loyalty?

Manafort was charged with, conspiracy against the United States, conspiracy to launder money, unregistered agent of a foreign principal, false and misleading FARA statements, false statements, and seven counts of failure to file reports of foreign bank and financial accounts.

Nothing there is deserving of a pardon, besides Manafort didn't lie to protect Trump, he was covering his own ass and sending the message to his former Ukrainian bosses, that he didn't give THEM up!!!

If New York has indicted him, and Trump does pardon him...he won't be free...NY will issue a warrant for his arrest and extradite him...he'll remain in jail during an extradition hearing. And since he already has a history of witness tampering and lying to investigators, he'll go from his cell in Alexandria, Va to another cell somewhere in NYC!

Do not pass go, do not collect $200!!!

[zaj]

18. There is no motive to pardon him right now.

Manafort is in limbo...

-- Trump is not loyal.
-- Manafort already helped Trump.
-- Trump won't act without a benefit to himself.
-- There is no future benefit to Trump for a pardon.
-- The negatives of a pardon are all that's left for Trump.

Thus, I don't expect a pardon for manafort until the last hours of a Trump administration, at best.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

19. My take is that he won't pardon Manafort.

I'm sure he thinks that Manafort is simply a disloyal fool who deserves what he gets. Notice that Trump shows zero loyalty to anyone other than himself. I suspect he'd cheerfully throw Ivanka and Jared and his two idiot sons under the bus in a heartbeat.