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Recession coming? (Original Post) Kingofalldems Mar 2019 OP
Right now it's all of 1100 points below PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2019 #1
That's actually not a huge drop, percentage-wise... Wounded Bear Mar 2019 #2
Inverted Yield Curve Johnny2X2X Mar 2019 #3
Just one leg ot the three legged stool. Wellstone ruled Mar 2019 #6
we get a recession every time a republican is in the WH demigoddess Mar 2019 #4
A lot of economists believe that. leftyladyfrommo Mar 2019 #5
Maybe ck4829 Mar 2019 #7
Yes Arazi Mar 2019 #8

Wounded Bear

(58,654 posts)
2. That's actually not a huge drop, percentage-wise...
Fri Mar 22, 2019, 01:52 PM
Mar 2019

we'll see. If it continues into next week, we might have a trend. The market has been basically flat over the last year or so, as the Obama economy slowly winds down. I'm almost kind of surprised that the Trump Slump has been this slow in coming, but the PTB have been trying to prop it up as much as possible. I doubt they can sustain it much longer, though.

I'm reminded of 2008, as BushCo and the Fed tried their hardest to stave off the crash as long as possible, hoping to delay it until after the election so they could blame it on Obama. They couldn't, and I suspect there is no way they can push this out until after Nov 2020.

Instead, we'll get another crash next year. Then, we'll get a Dem President, and once again they'll be saddled with an economic catastrophe that will prevent them from doing anything other than trying to dig out of the hole the Repubs have driven us into.

Johnny2X2X

(19,066 posts)
3. Inverted Yield Curve
Fri Mar 22, 2019, 01:54 PM
Mar 2019

Short term 3 month bonds yield is higher than 10 year bond yield right now. This is considered the most accurate and reliable predictor of a recession, with the average being 12 months from this point when a recession is upon us.

So yes, we're very very likely entering a recession in early 2020. But remember, recessions are upon us often well before economic indicators start making headlines.

So basically, since this is a political website, what this means is that Trump will not be able to run on the economy as much as he would like to. Depending on how severe the recession is, it could be the biggest negative against him by the election.



 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
6. Just one leg ot the three legged stool.
Fri Mar 22, 2019, 02:28 PM
Mar 2019

The other legs are,Tariff's and massive trade negative balances,and today's potenial appointment of Moore as Fed Chair.

Today it is the Later as per our Broker. Lot's of Cussing in his Office this morning over that news. Something the Koch's,Walton's and the Libertarian Billionaire's wanted for backing Trump. Watch for the name Peter Thiel to pop.

leftyladyfrommo

(18,868 posts)
5. A lot of economists believe that.
Fri Mar 22, 2019, 02:19 PM
Mar 2019

I don't think our economy is all that strong. Maybe looks that way but it is rotten underneath.

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