Trump is extremely vulnerable - but we can't take him lightly.

[Drunken Irishman]

...and it's not even necessarily him. It's the dynamics of the country.

By all accounts, Trump should be above 50% approval. With this economy, as we saw with Obama's approval as he left office, his approval shouldn't be as low as it is.

Thing is, Trump *is* being aided by a strong economy. Conversely, with all that has gone on the last few months with the Mueller Report, his numbers are still relatively okay for an incumbent being dinged by scandal. Okay in a reasonable sense - as it's likely the economy is helping mask a great deal of the disapproval many Americans may have with Trump.

As of today, according to RCP, Trump's average is 52-44 disapproval over approval. This has been remarkably steady for Trump.

Look at the trend (disapproval to approval):

5/5/19: 52-44
4/5/19: 52-44
3/5/19: 53-44
2/5/19: 56-41
1/5/19: 54-42
12/5/18: 53-43
11/5/18: 53-44
10/5/18: 53-44
9/5/18: 54-41
8/5/18: 53-43
7/5/18: 52-43
6/5/18: 54-43
5/5/18: 52-44

Trump's average approval today is exactly where it was at this point last year. 44% approved and 52% disapproved. That is remarkably steady approval figures. They typically don't deviate terribly over the course of a month.

These numbers are not awful - but they're not great, either. They're not great because, for the economy being in the state it is, his numbers should be reversed - maybe 52% approval, 44% disapproval. That's typically what Obama saw the last couple years of his second term.

But Trump is operating under a different reality and that reality is toxic. Had he come in, kept off twitter, shut his mouth and just sat there like, say, Reagan did for a bulk of his presidency, he would have been very difficult to beat. But Trump is Trump and the division and hate he's brought to the table absolutely is killing him.

Still, it appears there's a constant here: Trump's ceiling the past year, has generally been 44% - give or take. In fact, over the past year, Trump has only eclipsed 44% approval in the average just a handful of times and it's by way of rounding up (so, say, 44.7 rounded to 45). In fact, I can't find one day from 5/5/18 to 5/5/19 where Trump was at 45% without rounding.

Trump won 45.93 of the popular vote in 2016 - or, rounded, 46%. So, it's not like he's winning over many new supporters. Thing is, he's not far off his 2016 totals and that still may be enough to win him, say, the electoral college.

Which is why it's important to see his numbers in states - not necessarily nationally.

So, according to Morning Consult, Trump's approval in their last batch of polls (March) in the following states he won in 2016 Obama won in 2012 is:

PA: 52-45 disapprove
OH: 51-45 disapprove
MI: 53-42 disapprove
WI: 54-42 disapprove
FL: 49-47 disapprove
IA: 53-43 disapprove

Michigan and Wisconsin are teetering toward being out of reach for the president ... beyond something drastic. Pennsylvania is close, as is Ohio. Iowa, surprisingly, is looking bad for Trump.

This is where Trump is vulnerable. He had to run the table in three states Democrats have traditionally won. Credit his team, and the Russians, for allowing him to do that. But it took a near-perfect storm for him to and to hold those states, plus, say, Iowa and Ohio and Florida, into 2020 is going to be a task.

If the Dem nominee wins PA, MI and WI, this election is over.

That's not even counting Iowa and Florida.

But we must be vigilant and understand that, despite his relative stable polling, 2016 proved that the right circumstances can throw the election.

The one positive is that the economy can only hurt Trump from here on out. I don't see how opinions are going to change that dramatically over the next year and a half on his handling and how that correlates to his support. As I showed, his approval today is exactly as it was a year ago. If they're not supporting him now, after the economy has been relatively the same in its growth the last year, I don't see how that'll change.

If the economy, however, starts going off the deep end, then Trump will have nothing and he will be very, very vulnerable.

[TwilightZone]

1. We also have to remember that disapproval does not equate to not voting for him.

Plenty of people who disapproved of him voted for him in 2016.

There's also roughly 4% undecided in the national numbers. Split the difference and he's at 46%, about what he had in 2016.

It is kind of interesting that his numbers, on average, remain so stable. But then, nearly everyone made up their minds about Trump years ago, which is why I caution people to not put a lot of confidence in further revelations from the various investigations, including impeachment, making a significant difference.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. Yes. You're right. But I will say this...

Obama's approval rating on election day, 2012, was 50% approval, 47% disapproval.

He won the popular vote 51-47 over Romney. Surprisingly very close to those numbers.

I agree with your last point. I don't think many peoples' minds are going to be changed. It's the 4% who will decide this election - not the other two groups. Trump won't win that four-percent outright but he can win 'em if they decide to vote third party.

[TwilightZone]

4. Agreed on the close result-to-poll numbers.

I sometimes forget how close that 2012 race was - and how nerve-wracking. Though nothing like 2016 on both counts.

As you noted, it's going to come down to basically the same few states. Win those and it won't matter. The good news is that Trump's numbers are below his actual results in those states in 2016, but as you also noted, it's not enough that we can go into it with too much confidence or complacency. The Electoral College is still the final say.

[Rizen]

3. The most important thing is getting people to vote, not changing people's minds.

Republicans will stick with Trump through ANYTHING. We need to encourage people who disapprove to vote and voice their opinions.

[stuffmatters]

5. Democrats must combat this "Trump economy" fantasy with 2 screaming realities:

1) Trump was gifted a near bullet proof Obama Economic Expansion, eight years of unstoppable economic gains under Obama out of the ashes of the Bush/Republican Crash of 2008. Obama's stock market was set for unstoppable, continued gains, he laid the foundation. The current stock market is a result of Obama the economic foundation by Obama not Trump. It is also not any indicator of national prosperity; the top 10% own 84% od stock.

2) Any economic changes Trump and his band of economic clowns have passed have only hurt the general population of Americans:
His tax cut inflated the stock market with buyback hundreds of billions,to multinational corps and the 1%. Average taxpayers
benefits were negative to negligible, yet put a trillion and a half on the taxpayers national debt. His trade wars have already bankrupted family farmers, closed plants. forced those jobs overseas and raised out consumer costs (eg washing machines). He has destabilized our int'l alliances (like NATO &Nuclear Arms Agreement) inevitably forcing the American taxpayer to pour trillions more into unnecessary military spending. The immigration separation & incarceration nightmare he's created is not just a moral debasement of America; it costs taxpayers $750/day per immigrant. Trump is determined to deprive Americans of heathcare, environmental protections and he's even lowered their wages when possible (n.b. the repeal of the Obama overtime ceiling)
Any actual Trump actions within the still expanding Obama economy have been nothing more than giveaways to the .0001%, while impoverishing regular Americans in hundreds of ways.

[abqtommy]

6. If by "the right circumstances throwing the election",

you mean a corrupted process then I agree with you. But I wouldn't use the words "right circumstances"!

[MySideOfTown]

7. All we have to do is GOTV

and select a candidate who inspires us and doesn't take any sh*t from Repubs. It'll be a landslide.

[Locrian]

8. so what happens?

What if the gop pull a switch and "let" trump be taken down by investigations - then replaced him with a "sane" (at least compared to trump) candidate?

All they'd have to run on is the "continuation" of the "economy" and less tweets

Do the numbers filp?
Does the new person look like a saint compared to the clown of trump?
Could the trump maga crowd be turned to the new one?

Of course - the economy bubble is false and could pop - which would render all this moot.