To Impeach or Not to Impeach? - That Is the Question
It's a complicated question, though. There are issues with it that need to be carefully considered:
1. The Senate Will Not Remove Trump - That's the big issue, really. The Republican-controlled Senate absolutely will not deliver 67 votes to remove Trump, even if the House impeaches him. Removal will not occur. That creates a dilemma, and that dilemma will impinge on the 2020 election very heavily. It could lead to a massive Republican turnout next November as a protest. And that could lead to a second term for Donald J. Trump. Politically, this absolutely has to be weighed carefully. No President has ever been impeached and removed by Congress. Not a single one.
2. Impeachment Will NOT Cause Trump to Resign - That will simply not happen. It worked with Nixon, who resigned even before a vote to impeach was taken in the House. But, Trump, the President Who Would Be King, will not do that, because he has no shame whatsoever. Instead, he will campaign on an impeachment and will use that to attack Democrats. What the result of that might be is unpredictable, really. It could cause him to lose massively, or it could help him win re-election.
3. Impeachment Proceedings Are An Ideal Way to Lay out the Facts - The investigation and hearings associated with the impeachment process will allow Democrats to show the American public exactly what the charges are against Trump. An official impeachment process will make it much more difficult for Trump to forbid people from testifying, and the courts recognize the Constitutional seriousness of such hearings. That makes an official impeachment process an attractive opportunity. That process could be extended well into 2020, with a vote on impeachment delayed as long as necessary to get the truth out.
4. Actual Impeachment Proceedings Will Sent Trump through the Roof - As the saying goes, "You ain't seen nuthin' yet!" A major investment of time by the House in impeachment hearings and other actions in the process of impeachment will inflame Donald J. Trump. How much? That's a little hard to predict, but it could actually put him over the edge and demonstrate his fundamental mental issues. The unpredictability of it, though, also has a risk involved. Trump might use his Presidential powers to do something really, really stupid and dangerous, like nuking Iran. He can do that. He just might if he feels cornered.
5. Deciding What Course to Take Will Be Difficult - We're going to have to be patient, because it's not clear what the best course will be. We're not patient, though. so, there's going to be name-calling, warnings of dire consequences, and trolling attached to the controversy. Who ends up deciding? Well, the House leadership, mostly, although the most likely Democratic presidential nominee candidates will also weigh in. Who doesn't get to decide? DUers, quite frankly, don't. Nobody is going to pay attention to us, either way. Firebrand Democrats, too, aren't going to be deciding, either. They'll try to force the issue, but won't succeed.
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I counsel patience and watchfulness. I suggest sending your opinion to your district's representative in the House, as well, if you have a strong opinion on which way things should go. That's the only person you can probably influence, really.
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