UNC researcher has good news for Democrats

[G_j]

https://www.newsobserver.com/opinion/article232317082.html


Democrats worry that they’ll nominate a presidential candidate who’s too liberal to win a general election, but liberal policies are what the majority of Americans want now.

That’s the intriguing finding of an analysis by UNC professor emeritus James Stimson, a leading figure in American public opinion research. In 1989, Stimson created a statistical interpretation of the nation’s views on such government policies as taxation, government spending and environmental regulation by using data from all available national and academic surveys. The measure, called Public Policy Mood, is updated every two years.

In announcing his most recent analysis, Stimson wrote: “The annual estimate for 2018 is the most liberal ever recorded in the 67-year history of Mood, just slightly higher than the previous high point of 1961.”

In an interview last week, Stimson, a retired professor of political science who lives in Chapel Hill, said the liberal shift resembles the public mood on the cusp of the 1960s, “That’s where the electorate is. It’s like the time of Kennedy and Johnson. They are going to respond more warmly to policies from the left.”

Read more here: https://www.newsobserver.com/opinion/article232317082.html#storylink=cpy

[DeminPennswoods]

1. That is my sense as well

although obviously not backed up by years of statistics and analysis like Stimson's.

I think the Warren quote to Maddow that runs alot on MSNBC ads for themselves sums this mood up quite well: "How do we think government should work? And who do we think it should work for?".

My sense is most Americans would answer those questions that their government isn't working and when it does, it's not working in the interest of "average" Americans.

[mnhtnbb]

2. There's an interesting article about demographics of 2020 election here

https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/

There is expected to be a dramatic increase in the number of eligible very young voters (age 18-23), and they would tend to be more liberal. They certainly would be very future focused in terms of climate change, health care, jobs, education.

[luvtheGWN]

7. Something else to consider re: young voters.

These are people who have had the worry of school shootings hanging over them every time they leave home and enter their schools. It's a very, very real fear, unlike the rather "nebulous" fear of the Cold War and the possibility of nuclear warfare in the 60's.

They know full well which political party to hold accountable for that fear. They also see that their president is morally corrupt.

Seems to me that the Democratic Party has an obligation to pay very special attention to these young folks of voting age. They are the ones i would be concentrating on......

[Drunken Irishman]

14. I'm worried young voters, especially young white voters, are more conservative than a decade ago...

They've full-on embraced Trump and in some ways have been openly racist.

In 2016, 47% of high school students (13 to 19) polled supported Trump, while only 32.6% backed Hillary.

I don't know how much has changed the last three years but the vibe I get from social media, and what I've heard from family still in high school, is that Trump still remains fairly popular. We've also seen stories of Nazi salutes, racist chants and other deplorable bullshit.

[barbtries]

3. this doesn't surprise me in the least.

now, to get the "establishment" dems to believe it.

yes we can elect a woman president!!!

[wasupaloopa]

4. We just need a little peace, love and rock and roll.

I was a freshman in high school in 1960.

My friends and I had a garage band. Life was good except for the fact that we may end up in Vietnam after graduation.

Dr King was killed, John Kennedy was killed. I was drafted and went to Vietnam.

The sixties did not end well. The country came apart over war and civil rights.

We may have wanted liberalism but the backlash started with Goldwater and hasn’t ended.

[G_j]

5. 50 years after Woodstock

big wheel keeps on turning

[spanone]

6. K&R...

[NewJeffCT]

8. One big difference between 1960/61 and now

the media conglomerates now mostly support the right and/or the status quo. Back then, the media was less partisan and more balanced.

[JudyM]

9. K&R.

(Happy dance)

[Recursion]

10. Voters don't vote based on policies, though

This is a category error we keep making. The policies voters prefer and the candidate they vote for have never been strongly correlated at all.

[Takket]

15. Huh? What are basing that on?

[Recursion]

18. Oh, Lord. Political scientists have shown this over and over and over again

Here's a good start: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/1/15515820/donald-trump-democracy-brexit-2016-election-europe

Basically, if you ask people what policies they prefer, and give them two hypothetical candidates who take different views on those policies, over and over and over again the hypothetical candidate the person votes for has literally no statistical relationship to the policy preferences the voters stated. Voters vote for candidates based on whether or not they identify with those candidates. The result is robust in multiple countries and over multiple decades.

[certainot]

11. but a few hundred liars on 1500 radio stations still pushing that number way right and

the talk radio monopoly has even more effect on politicians and media who think that manufactured buzz is 'public opinion' merely because the left and dems ignore it

and when election time comes those stations remind fence sitters apathetic voters that illegal immigrants from congo bringing ebola will be putting their kids in school with you kids and that's why we need a wall, and so on

[zaj]

12. Winning candidates *follow* public opinion, they don't lead it.

Candidates who try to shape public opinion lose, but can become iconic activists. Because they take on the role of change agent. But that's not how you reliably win elections.

Bernie Sanders, for example, is an actvist. He's trying to shape public opinion more than win.

Which is powerful and exciting to other activists.

But activists don't have enough votes to win elections.

[Doctor Howard]

16. yes

[Pantagruel]

13. Lament!

" the liberal shift resembles the public mood on the cusp of the 1960s,"

Sadly, I've aged beyond the point where it's possible to let my hair grow long but somewhere in my closet is a pair of bell bottom jeans.

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

17. Democrats don't worry about having a liberal nominee. Old Guard Democrats worry about it.

Voters consider middle of the road Democrats as "Republican Lite," and given the choice between a real Republican who stands for something-- no matter how abhorrent -- and a Democrat who is not clearly enunciating liberal principles (healthcare for all, clean environment, strong relationships with our allies), they'll choose the Republican every time. I heard a voter -- a doctor -- say he didn't support what Dubya said he was going to do, but he liked that he said it with conviction.

I want to knock Trump out of office, and I think we do so by being who we are, and not who we think the voters would like

[MadLinguist]

19. yes, man! Tell it!!