Huge Turnout Is Expected in 2020. So Which Party Would Benefit?
Huge Turnout Is Expected in 2020. So Which Party Would Benefit?
Democrats typically gain from a broader electorate in presidential races, but that pattern is not assured in the Trump era.
By Nate Cohn at the NY Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/15/upshot/2020-election-turnout-analysis.html
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It is commonly assumed that Democrats benefit from higher turnout because young and nonwhite and low-income voters are overrepresented among nonvoters. And for decades, polls have shown that Democrats do better among all adults than among all registered voters, and better among all registered voters than among all actual voters.
But this longstanding pattern has become more complicated in the Trump years. The president is strong among less educated white voters, who are also overrepresented among nonvoters. And Democrats already banked many of the rewards of higher turnout in the midterm elections, when the party out of power typically enjoys a turnout advantage and did so yet again, according to 2018 Times/Siena data.
Nationwide, the longstanding Republican edge in the gap between registered and actual voters all but vanished in 2018, even though young and nonwhite voters continued to vote at lower rates than older and white voters.
At the same time, the president’s white working-class supporters from 2016 were relatively likely to stay home. Voters like these are likeliest to return to the electorate in 2020, and it could set back Democrats in crucial battleground states.
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