I hate to say it, but I don't think impeachment is the Magic Bullet

[NewJeffCT]

Long post for me, but I don't think holding impeachment hearings right now is going to accomplish much.

Because impeachment hearings will not magically make all the witnesses refusing to testify suddenly appear before Congress to testify. All the people that ignored subpoenas will not suddenly want to testify once the impeachment magic wand is waved.

If they start impeachment today and they call (for example) Donald Trump Jr or Jared Kushner, they will ignore the subpoena. Congress then eventually issues a contempt citation, which can go one of three ways:

1) They make a criminal referral, which means it would be referred to the Billy Barr Department of Justice. What are the chances they will move forward with the prosecution? Zero, or less than zero? Not happening.

2) They file a civil lawsuit and try to get the courts to enforce contempt. Eric Holder was cited for civil contempt related to Fast & Furious – that lawsuit is still ongoing years later. Maybe impeachment proceedings speed up the process, but by how much? Even a 75% improvement on Holder’s speed means it will take two years or more.

3) They could also use Inherent Contempt to lock up people in the House Jail and/or issue direct fines. Since this has not been used since the 1930s, they will be hit with a lawsuit in response and chances are good that the Trump-friendly SCOTUS will eventually toss it out since it hasn’t been used in 80 or so years, citing it's lack of use.

I’m not saying don’t try impeachment, but impeachment generally brings us to the same place – the Trump tax return release is still going through the courts and the two remaining emoluments lawsuits are going through the courts. That will be joined by multiple Contempt citations going through the courts as well as anything additional that comes up with refusals to testify or to be subjected to meaningful oversight.

Then, let us say that Congress wins at the SCOTUS level by 9-0 or 8-1 and Kushner, Don Jr, Hicks, Bannon, Conway, McGahn, Donaldson, Nunes, Kelly, Miller, etc all must testify.

Each will then claim executive privilege and the mythical “blanket immunity” and refuse to testify again. Let’s then assume we get expedited SCOTUS review on this and even Brett Kavanaugh laughs those claims out of court, because they are laughable claims. 9-0 against Team Trump.

You know what happens after that? Jared Kushner, et al, testify before Congress and invoke their Fifth Amendment rights against self-incrimination. And, Fox News and the right wing media echo chamber try to build up everybody into the next Oliver North, who was shockingly popular after he took the Fifth during Iran Contra. And, that was before Fox News came along. Team Trump will claim they broke the laws to MAGA and wrap themselves in the flag again.

IranContra was more serious than Watergate, but Republicans stonewalling the investigations and Special Prosecutor Walsh worked whereas complying with Nixon's Special Prosecutor led to Nixon resigning. I think whoever is advising Trump (Barr, for one) knows that history and will stonewall for as long as possible.

[StarfishSaver]

1. +1000

Excellent analysis!

Are you a lawyer? You reason like one - playing out scenarios to their logical conclusion rather than assuming the next step will result only in the outcome we desire.

[NewJeffCT]

10. the options on Contempt

were from a few legal articles I had read.

[wryter2000]

2. Generally agree

Impeachment now is pointless. However, it seems to me having impeachment hearings next Summer could severely hurt his chances for re-election. The one thing impeachment hearings would win us is more media attention.

I honestly don't care if we ever hold an impeachment vote. I just want his crimes exposed right before the election.

[LiberalLovinLug]

16. The longer we wait, the more difficult it gets

We were all waiting with baited breath for Mueller to bring the hammer down. Hailing him as a hero before he even uttered one word.

Disappointment is an understatement. Not only with his non-conclusions, but his silence for a full month while Barr misconstrued his report.

It ended with a whimper. Now it's about 20 news cycles in the rear view mirror.

We should have leaped at the shot the very day that we learned of Barr's deception of the facts. Make a huge stink about it. Even if that would require a lot of Democrats to go out of their comfort zone. Even if they had to forcefully emote passion and anger against their nature.

Everything is being absorbed into this huge normalization blob that is getting larger by the day. Until the very thought of initiating impeachment is the thing that is abnormal.

[Catch2.2]

22. Thats the problem

Dems don't like going out of their comfort zone. Sometimes doing the right thing means you have to go out of your comfort zone. The Dems seem to be afraid that an Impeachment process would result in more votes/support for trump. The problem is that the Dems are bad at getting the message out. They expected people to read the Mueller report...they didn't and won't. They don't understand that the majority of people watch Fox News. If they had been exposing Trump's crimes to the people, impeachment would have overwhelming support from the people. You and I know what a PoS trump is, but the average person doesn't. It's prt of the Dems job to let them know what a disgusting person he is, a con man who's screwing them over.

[ElementaryPenguin]

3. Impeachment is the strongest message we can send that his conduct is intolerable!

And we need to do it ASAP!

[wryter2000]

4. Great for message-sending

Pointless for removing him from office. And if we can't even get an impeachment vote through the House, what message does that send?

[NewJeffCT]

9. And as I said above

if they hold impeachment hearings, they're going to need to fight through the courts just to get people to testify and then the hearings will likely be so disjointed that they lack the power of Watergate in terms of captivating the nation.

By disjointed, they'll have a witness testify one week and then maybe because of the various court battles going on, nobody else testifies for 2, 3 or 4 more weeks.

Unless you can guarantee me that Democrats can have several consecutive weeks of live testimony on TV, one person here and there testifying will just be forgotten about when Trump creates his next huge distraction - another racist tweet or statement, war with Iran, a new trade war, defunding Special Olympics again, etc

[Trumpocalypse]

17. To quote the great Humphrey Bogart

If you want to send a message, call western union.

[StarfishSaver]

30. When they sent a message yesterday, the impeachment now folks said, "Meh! It doesn't mean anything!"

[bdamomma]

26. Mueller and his team

did the report, and it was given to the Congress, which at that point everyone was second guessing that McConnell would stop it. Why assume that, just get on with it, and impeachment inquiry, but we have a very sick ass mental case in the WH, everyone of us would hear about it each day. Trump is whiny POS.

[Vinca]

5. There is no magic bullet with Mitch McConnell in charge of the Senate.

That said, do we want history to record the fact we DIDN'T impeach?

[dalton99a]

6. +1. It's like a D.A. saying no crime was ever committed, no charges filed, no case ever presented

Just a normal president - nothing impeachable

[Trumpocalypse]

19. No DA or prosecutor

would bring someone up for trial unless their was a fair chance of conviction.

[NewJeffCT]

7. I didn't even get to the vote in the Senate

I think it will be like pulling teeth just to get people to testify only to have them take the 5th

[Vinca]

8. That should be a secondary consideration.

If things were reversed and a Democratic POTUS was in office doing what Trump is doing and the House and Senate were in a similar state, would the GOP not impeach? Unlikely. They almost impeached when Obama put Dijon mustard on his hamburger.

[Trumpocalypse]

20. Just because Republicans do something

is not a good argument for Dems to do the same.

[Vinca]

21. That's true, but I hope decades from now, when our democracy has been lost because people followed

a cult, it won't be reported that Democrats did nothing. We have to try to get rid of this guy. It's so obvious where this is all heading. If he wins a second term, he will probably leave at the end of 8 years because he'll be so old, but waiting in the wings will be Ivanka. The cult will elect her next. And so it goes. Makes me glad I'm old.

[Catch2.2]

23. Exactly

something needs to be done now! If we are fortunate enough to win the Senate and the Presidency in 2020, I am afraid the Dems will say, "We are not going to go after any of Trump's crimes and that it is time to move on." This will send a message that it is ok to be as corrupt as you want because there will be no consequences. The next time a republican will get elected, he will push the corruption envelope even farther...because he/she can. Why? Because the Dems did nothing.

[Trumpocalypse]

31. Then we need to win in 20

by all supporting the Democratic Party nominee.

[stopdiggin]

14. we don't even have the House

People forget (or willfully ignore) that we have yet to get a plurality of DEMOCRATS on board in the House. And months of trumpeting "Impeach Now" have not moved that marker enough to make any difference. So you bring up Articles with the possibility that the vote might FAIL? In the one chamber in the one branch of government that we now hold? Now there's some strategy for you! Pelosi is holding off (for now) -- because at this point the action would hurt her own party.

[Scurrilous]

11. ...

[NewJeffCT]

12. Thanks

another kick

[Baltimike]

13. off to the greatest page with you. nt

[GeorgeGist]

15. Where is the Magic Bullet?

[uponit7771]

18. We agree, its not a magic bullet ... its all we got right now to expose KGOP enablers

[Catch2.2]

25. Agree 100%

[NewJeffCT]

33. As I mentioned above

it is going to bring us to the same place we are no - nobody testifying, and when they testify, they say nothing.

In the GOP eyes, testifying and telling the truth led to Nixon resigning. Nixon is a national pariah. With IranContra, Republicans took the 5th and/or stonewalled. Reagan and Bush both left office and Reagan is a GOP hero.

Iran Contra was worse, but the general public doesn't realize that because Republicans effectively stonewalled the investigation.

[kentuck]

24. No, but it is a helluva weapon to have in your arsenal...

...unless you tell your opponent you will never use it.

[NewJeffCT]

34. I'm not saying never use it, or tell them we're never using it

just that right now, I don't think it changes much.

[Faux pas]

27. We need to make

the statement (if for no other reason) that no one is above the law.

[Gothmog]

29. Even if this statement allows the GOP senate to acquit trump?

Link to tweet

[kentuck]

36. Could someone tell Mitch to "Go to hell!"

The Senate cannot determine what the House does.

What must he have been thinking?

[Gothmog]

28. Without 20 GOP senate votes impeachment is meaningless

Impeachment without 20 GOP votes for removal could help trump win re-election

[NewJeffCT]

35. I don't think Democrats would pursue impeachment

unless there was some explosive public testimony - Mueller and then others.

However, I think anybody even close to connected with Trump will stonewall and then take the 5th.

[Cetacea]

38. Plenty of collusion. Plenty of obstruction. And Mueller will say as much next week

But he's been scheduled two days before the six-week recess. Brilliant. Enter swift-boaters and death panels to negate the facts and any momentum.

A fine opportunity to educate the people, wasted.

Meanwhile, 4 Russian trolls to each voter on social media. But then again, most voters don't know what happened in '16.

Not to worry. We'll win in 2020. No way can Trump win...

[LanternWaste]

32. Impeachment proceedings would be the most effective tool in tRumps re-election toolbox

My guess is impeachment proceedings would be the most effective tool for Idiot trump's re-election.

I don't think there exists any better war-cry for his base of idiots to rally around during the 2020 campaign season than the Dems using impeachment as a fulcrum to moderate his idiocy.

[Cetacea]

37. Just GOTV

like we did in 2016. Trump can't win.