I don't like the look of this one coming up behind Isaac.

[dipsydoodle]

Not Kirk which will likely fizzle out mid Atalntic. The one with 100% chance noted is yet unnamed but would be Joyce.

[malaise]

1. This is even more troubling

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE INITIATED
LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Note 100% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone

[ejpoeta]

2. how can anything be 100% chance. i could see 99% but not 100%

[Mariana]

4. The calculations probably have it at higher than 100%.

Weather forecasting numbers can be weird.

[Gabby Hayes]

3. Looks determined with some clear sailing for a while

Good eyes. This already looks lke a blustery one tumbling along at will. The wind reports from the Windwards and Leewards will be of great interest over the next couple of days

Have to double check, but I think Tropical Storm Joyce fell apart about 1,200 miles eash of the Leewards on August 24. The next named storm will ne will be namd Leslie - -- the 12th storm this season, and we're not even into Septemertember yet..

[dipsydoodle]

7. hadn't realised Joyce didn't materialise

so yes - Leslie then. If its Leslie Nielsen we'll all be saying "don't call me Shirley."

[malaise]

9. True but in 2005 Katrina was the major August hurricane n/t

[SoCalDem]

5. Kirk will head north..no trouble/.. but the low circled is a concern

The ones that start low and duck in under Cuba are trouble..But that one is days away from turning ugly.

[Blues Heron]

6. Current models for Invest 98L

http://classic.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201298_model.html

looks like they think it will recurve before encountering land. Let's hope.

[Lex]

8. Thanks. I was hoping someone would post that exact information.