Slate: Mueller found a conspiracy between the Trump campaign and Russia but declined to charge it.

[triron]

Link to tweet

[Dennis Donovan]

1. I tried to post all of Seth's tweets in my OP:

...but had to stop due to time constraints:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212319948

[Celerity]

4. here

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1154793167960629251.html


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Profile picture
Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
an hour ago, 46 tweets, 28 min read Read on Twitter

(BREAKING NEWS THREAD) A historic legal analysis published by @Slate confirms what this feed asserts—the Mueller Report FOUND a criminal conspiracy between Trump's campaign and the Kremlin but declined to charge it. Please RETWEET this thread explaining this explosive revelation.



mentions 1/ As law professor @jedshug explains on @Slate, federal law doesn't require an explicit agreement between parties for the criminal statute prohibiting coordination between campaigns and foreign nationals to be violated. Paul Manafort committed this crime.

Slate's Trumpcast
@realTrumpcast
Reflecting on the inspirational @RepAdamSchiff and what Mueller is really saying in his volumes, @page88 and @jedshug do a testimony debrief. https://megaphone.link/SLT9531042070

Megaphone (formerly Panoply Media) ‎@MegaphonePods

72
7:00 AM - Jul 26, 2019

28 people are talking about this
mentions 2/ The Mueller Report erroneously proceeded under an interpretation of federal law that no independent legal experts have agreed with: that a criminal conspiracy to violate election law requires an explicit agreement. But whether this "error" was indeed an *accident* is in doubt.
mentions 3/ The evidence of the Mueller Report, criminal investigative SOPs, and major-media reporting establishes that the original intent of the special counsel's office was to charge Paul Manafort with conspiracy with Russia—and that Trump knew this and sought to obstruct this finding.
mentions 4/ NBC News reported in January 2018 that Donald Trump privately believed Paul Manafort could incriminate him in a federal crime—but that by January 2018, information had reached him (privately) that had convinced him that Manafort would not in fact do so.
Trump is convinced he'll beat Mueller, confidants say
Ahead of his first State of the Union address, Donald Trump is telling friends and aides that things are going great — for him.
https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2018-state-of-the-union-address/state-donald-trump-he-thinks-it-couldn-t-be-better-n842501
mentions 5/ The Mueller Report clearly establishes that Trump received the private intelligence that Paul Manafort would not incriminate him in a conspiracy—by refusing to cooperate with federal law enforcement, *not* because Manafort *couldn't* incriminate him—from Manafort's legal team.
mentions 6/ Criminal investigative SOPs (standard operating procedures) establish why Trump believed federal law enforcement would seek to have Manafort incriminate him: because investigators do not cut deals with a national campaign manager *without* seeking to indict someone higher up.
mentions 7/ When the special counsel's office charged Manafort with offenses that could put him in federal prison for 20 years—and then entered into a cooperation deal with him—the only person above him in the campaign hierarchy for him to "flip" on was the presidential candidate himself.
mentions 8/ The legal analysis published digitally by @Slate confirms the uncharged offense on Manafort would have been a federal criminal—election—conspiracy with individuals he knew from his work on behalf of the Kremlin were Kremlin agents. This is the "flip" Trump was terrified about.
mentions 9/ The Mueller Report establishes that Manafort had been a paid Kremlin agent, via Oleg Deripaska—who says he "does not separate himself" or his interests from those of the Kremlin—since the year Manafort moved into Trump Tower (2006), and that he remained so during the campaign.
mentions 10/ Manafort's work for the Kremlin—once thought to have ended in the early 2010s—in fact continued in and past his work as Trump's campaign manager. Mueller's report and testimony establishes that Manafort anticipated both loan forgiveness and cash from the Kremlin for his work.
mentions 11/ Mueller's report and testimony establishes Manafort as a Kremlin agent in 2016 and after—federal law establishes he was in a criminal conspiracy with the Kremlin based upon his agreement to coordinate with and provide proprietary data/intelligence to the Kremlin mid-campaign.
mentions 12/ That Donald Trump thought Mueller would indict him if Manafort flipped means that Trump had knowledge of the criminal conspiracy Mueller opted not to charge Manafort with—a decision Mueller made so Manafort would flip on Trump. Trump's criminal obstruction prevented any flip.
mentions 13/ The Mueller Report outlines how Trump—through a joint defense agreement with Manafort and his lawyers acting as intermediaries—made it absolutely clear to Manafort that he would be "taken care of" if he refused to "flip" on his former boss. The obstruction hid the conspiracy.


mentions 14/ For those who haven't read Vol. 1 of the Mueller Report, I'll now briefly summarize the federal criminal election conspiracy Mueller chose not to indict Manafort for because of a) him thinking Manafort would flip on Trump, b) an "error" of law by the special counsel's office.
mentions 15/ I put "error" in quotes advisedly. Mueller cut a cooperation deal with Manafort because his office *knew* the federal criminal statutes governing US election law do not require "explicit" coordination; that Manafort had violated these laws; and that he could "flip" on Trump.
mentions 16/ There was no reason for Mueller to cut a deal with Manafort—or for his office to represent to federal courts that the lies Manafort told the SCO that mattered were the lies hiding this conspiracy—if the feds did not believe Manafort had committed an election conspiracy crime.
mentions 17/ Here's what Trump's campaign manager did: within days of his hire by Trump he contacted a known Kremlin agent—Kilimnik, who Manafort knew to be a Kremlin agent both through direct contact with him and his (Manafort's) other deputy, Gates—to seek compensation from the Kremlin.
mentions 18/ That compensation—Mueller's report and testimony confirms—was in the form of both loan forgiveness and direct payment from Kremlin agents. In recompense, as a quid pro quo that was either implicit or explicit (federal law criminalizes either), Manafort would aid the Kremlin.
mentions 19/ Manafort thereafter—almost immediately—did at least 3 things:

1. He directed his deputy Gates to *regularly* provide proprietary internal polling data to the Kremlin that would allow the Kremlin to better direct its domestic disinformation campaign (a crime) against America.
mentions 20/

2. Paul Manafort offered Kremlin agents internal campaign intelligence assessments about Trump's campaign tactics and strategy, the better to convince the Kremlin that Trump had a chance of winning and that its pro-Trump hacking and disinformation campaigns should continue.
mentions 21/

3. Paul Manafort initiated an 18-month negotiation with Kremlin agents (beginning August 2, 2016 and continuing into '18) with the goal of the negotiations being to promise Putin sanctions relief in exchange for pre-election assistance to—and post-election comity with—Trump.
mentions 22/ The Mueller Report and major-media reporting establishes that Trump was in regular contact with Manafort about his campaign from the day he was hired and about *sanctions* both before and after his fake "firing" in August 2016. And we know that the "firing" was indeed fake.
mentions 23/ The Mueller Report and major-media reporting establishes that Trump remained in regular contact with Manafort on the subject of sanctions after his "firing" in mid-August 2016; indeed, eyewitnesses say Manafort basically continued advising Trump exactly as he had done before.
mentions 24/ Immediately upon his "firing," Manafort went on a cruise with one of Trump's two best friends, Thomas Barrack (the other is Howard Lorber) during which cruise Barrack orchestrated payment to Manafort of millions and millions of dollars via sources tied to the Trump campaign.
mentions 25/ This cruise remains under federal probe—and Gates remains a federal cooperating witness despite the filing of the Mueller Report because Gates is now the lone witness who can testify to what Manafort and Trump did, who knew of it, and Trump's efforts to sway him via Manafort.
mentions 26/ Mueller's testimony indicates the question of collusion (whether a person is compromised by a foreign power due to implicit or express coordination) is now in the hands of the FBI's counterintel division, which—with Manafort's prison sentence—explains the lack of new charges.
mentions 27/ Mueller testified he wanted to move quickly to file a report; the implication is he didn't want to interfere with the 2020 election—given that he'd been investigating the many insidious ways the Russians had done just that in '16. He knew counterintelligence work was ongoing.
mentions 28/ Mueller knew Trump had successfully obstructed justice to keep Manafort from cooperating; Manafort was in prison and going nowhere; Gates remained a cooperating witness; counterintelligence investigators were looking more explicitly at collusion and are continuing their work.
mentions 29/

There is no legal or factual basis to say Manafort was *not* in a criminal election conspiracy with the Kremlin.

There is no legal or factual basis to say Trump did *not* know Manafort could incriminate him or that he did *not* take steps to obstruct/tamper with Manafort.
mentions 30/ Given Mueller's testimony, his report, major-media reports, and investigative SOPs, there are *no facts* and is *no law* on the other side of what this thread explains: a conspiracy occurred; Mueller wanted to charge it; he knew Trump knew of it; Trump obstructed that charge.
mentions 31/ The only question that remains is why the special counsel's office misstated federal election law and withheld charging Manafort with the conspiracy they believed he'd engaged in—and whose revelation they knew Trump had obstructed. But the fact of ongoing CI work explains it.
mentions 32/ To explain: we learned yesterday a shocking fact—that Mueller didn't subpoena Trump *though he knew he could* because he felt he had enough evidence of corrupt intent *and* needed to bring *his* part of the Trump-Russia case to an expeditious end. He testified to all of this.
mentions 33/ The Manafort situation was identical: Mueller's work confirms he knew a crime had occurred—hence the Manafort cooperation deal—and Manafort could flip on the only man higher than him (Trump). But charging a crime in light of Trump's obstruction would've taken months—or years.
mentions 34/ With Vol. 2 (obstruction), Mueller relented on actions he knew he could take because he felt he had enough evidence. With Vol. 1 (conspiracy), Mueller relented on actions he knew he could take because an ongoing counterintelligence investigation would achieve the same result.
mentions 35/ Legal experts should feel free to check the legal analysis of @jedshug and the investigative, factual, and Mueller Report analyses I've provided here and elsewhere. They are correct: a conspiracy occurred; the evidence indicates Trump knew of it and obstructed its disclosure.
mentions 36/ Moreover, additional evidence comes from the mouths of the men themselves: Trump told friends Manafort could incriminate him; Manafort told Gates Trump was tampering with him; Kilimnik and other witnesses confirm Manafort committed election conspiracy crimes with the Kremlin.
mentions 37/ Still other witnesses—including one Manafort family member and Trump's best friend Barrack—confirm how close Manafort and Trump were, what the men discussed and how frequently and when, and the fact that work was indeed being done to compensate Manafort even post-"firing."
mentions 38/ If you wonder why this legal and investigative analysis didn't come together until Mueller's testimony, it's because many of us were waiting for several revelations that came during his testimony which are *central* to this thread. 15 of them are here:
Unroll available on Thread Reader

Seth Abramson
✔
@SethAbramson
(THREAD) Far and away the worst take on Mueller's testimony is that we learned nothing new from it. In fact, the *new* facts we learned were jaw-dropping. This thread focuses *only* on 10 new things we now know. I hope you'll RETWEET this for anyone you think might be interested.

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13K people are talking about this
mentions 39/ One other thing we learned by Mueller's testimony—though I've been saying it here for 2 years—is that this is the most complicated federal criminal investigation of our lifetimes. No one person can have full mastery over its contours. So it's no surprise no one in media does.
mentions 40/ We often ignore legal/investigative experts to listen to what media tells us. Media didn't follow the facts or law laid out here so it has reported—and will keep reporting—no conspiracy occurred. But lawyers and investigators should feel free to check the work done here. /end
mentions PS/ Many reading this may now say, "What now? Manafort committed a federal election crime and conspiracy with Kremlin agents, all the evidence says Trump knew of it, Mueller knew Trump knew of it, and Trump committed crimes to block Manafort from revealing it"—so what comes next?
mentions PS2/ First, the fight to get Congressional (and eventually partial public) access to the FBI counterintelligence case file, findings, and report began only *yesterday*. The Congresspeople *leading* that fight know federal law, and do not disagree with the analysis in this thread.
mentions PS3/ Second, now that Mueller's testimony—see my link to my prior tweet earlier in this thread—has revealed at least five new pieces of information that allow the understanding I've laid out here to crystallize, a public information campaign must begin in D.C. *and* social media.
mentions PS4/ Anyone on social media can now—in good faith—say the following:

1. Manafort criminally conspired with the Kremlin during the '16 presidential election.

2. The special counsel's office believed this and it acted accordingly.

3. Trump believed this and he acted accordingly.
mentions PS5/ And one can then add this addendum:

4. The FBI Counterintelligence Division is now conducting an investigation into collusion between Trump and foreign powers—including Russia—that is far larger in scope than Mueller's work and has Rick Gates as a key witness on conspiracy.

[triron]

7. Awesome!

[spanone]

2. WTF??????????

[littlemissmartypants]

9. Last paragraph reads, quote

4. The FBI Counterintelligence Division is now conducting an investigation into collusion between Trump and foreign powers—including Russia—that is far larger in scope than Mueller's work and has Rick Gates as a key witness on conspiracy.

End quote.

[Celerity]

12. will they also bow to that damn OLC 'no indictment of a sitting POTUS' memo?

[littlemissmartypants]

16. I trust

That "they" are WAY more knowledgeable and prepared to respond in logical and thoughtful ways than you or I are.

And I'm sure that either of us holding our breath until we turn blue is going to have little effect on their knowledge and execution of the law in the process.

There are better ways to expend energy. Like consider calling or visiting your local Board of Elections and offer your help.

ETA Deleted post for context:

Celerity
12. will they also bow to that damn OLC 'no indictment of a sitting POTUS' memo?

[SergeStorms]

26. Why are they using the term 'collusion'?

As I understand it there is no crime of 'collusion'. 'Conspiracy' should be the correct term. Every time someone utters 'collusion' they coincide with the Trump narrative, which is complete and utter bullshit.

[littlemissmartypants]

28. Because it's a crime?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collusion

"Collusion is illegal in the United States,..."

Maybe this article will help you answer your question.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/07/24/mueller-tdoug-collins-definition-collusion-conspiracy/1812662001/

I am not a split hairs kind of person. I am happy with the Gestalt view in this case. I hope you find the answer you are looking for.

[SergeStorms]

29. From everything I've seen...

by the talking heads on TV, especially the constitutional attorneys, collusion isn't the correct term to use. I'm just going by what these people have said. I'm not an attorney, and won't even deign to play one on TV.

[littlemissmartypants]

10. Last paragraph reads, quote

4. The FBI Counterintelligence Division is now conducting an investigation into collusion between Trump and foreign powers—including Russia—that is far larger in scope than Mueller's work and has Rick Gates as a key witness on conspiracy.

End quote.

[Celerity]

14. I deleted it after pondering it, it perhaps was too harsh on Mueller, I am just at wits end with

what I see coming down the train tunnel

[emmaverybo]

17. I have suspected that the FBI was carrying on a more extensive investigation, but isn't the FBI

answerable to AG Barr and won’t he put the kabosh (sic) on ?

[kentuck]

5. Wow!

Link to tweet

<13/ The Mueller Report outlines how Trump—through a joint defense agreement with Manafort and his lawyers acting as intermediaries—made it absolutely clear to Manafort that he would be "taken care of" if he refused to "flip" on his former boss. The obstruction hid the conspiracy.>

[triron]

6. Seth later adds this:

Link to tweet

[RANDYWILDMAN]

18. Wow, so complex....

I wonder if you checked out the Trump finances this house of cards could actually fall ??????

Mueller
Mueller

Yeah, if Pelosi and Congress get a look at his finances and still hold their powder dry then you know how @#$%ed we really are.

[Moostache]

20. Trying to get my head around this...

1. Manafort criminally conspired with the Kremlin during the '16 presidential election.

So, this appears to be factually supported through actions and evidence, Manafort was CLEARLY a very, very dirty player and in it up to his eyeballs...

2. The special counsel's office believed this and it acted accordingly.

Here I get a little hazy...is the implication that they KNEW the conspiracy and KNEW they would not charge it, therefore giving Trump a virtual pass? OR... They knew this was beyond the scope of the SCO and therefore would have to be referred to a more robust inquiry, such as the FBI's counterintel division?

3. Trump believed this and he acted accordingly.

I also struggle here a little bit because this implies a kind of discipline and cold-blood calculation that Trump's persona, behavior and lack of impulse control belie...he can't be an evil genius on one hand AND a total buffoon on the other at the same time...I refuse to believe that man is THAT capable and THAT good at ANYTHING...nor are the clowns around him...I tend to frown upon conspiracies that require the assistance of real genius level conspirators because they simply start to feel contrived...

mentions PS5/ And one can then add this addendum:

4. The FBI Counterintelligence Division is now conducting an investigation into collusion between Trump and foreign powers—including Russia—that is far larger in scope than Mueller's work and has Rick Gates as a key witness on conspiracy.

Can we get confirmation of this? Is this really happening or is it more like a bad subplot for "National Treasure 3"?

I believe that Trump is a criminal. I am actually 100% certain of that. But is it really possible that he is ALSO a savant-criminal mastermind capable of actually understanding all of this? How is that possible for a man who sometimes can't string together a coherent thought or string of statements without sounding like English is his second or third language???

[triron]

21. I think Mueller confirmed this during the hearing.

Many were caught by surprise.

[dalton99a]

8. Thread:

Link to tweet

(BREAKING NEWS THREAD) A historic legal analysis published by @Slate confirms what this feed asserts—the Mueller Report FOUND a criminal conspiracy between Trump's campaign and the Kremlin but declined to charge it. Please RETWEET this thread explaining this explosive revelation.

1/ As law professor @jedshug explains on @Slate, federal law doesn't require an explicit agreement between parties for the criminal statute prohibiting coordination between campaigns and foreign nationals to be violated. Paul Manafort committed this crime.

2/ The Mueller Report erroneously proceeded under an interpretation of federal law that no independent legal experts have agreed with: that a criminal conspiracy to violate election law requires an explicit agreement. But whether this "error" was indeed an *accident* is in doubt.

3/ The evidence of the Mueller Report, criminal investigative SOPs, and major-media reporting establishes that the original intent of the special counsel's office was to charge Paul Manafort with conspiracy with Russia—and that Trump knew this and sought to obstruct this finding.

4/ NBC News reported in January 2018 that Donald Trump privately believed Paul Manafort could incriminate him in a federal crime—but that by January 2018, information had reached him (privately) that had convinced him that Manafort would not in fact do so.

5/ The Mueller Report clearly establishes that Trump received the private intelligence that Paul Manafort would not incriminate him in a conspiracy—by refusing to cooperate with federal law enforcement, *not* because Manafort *couldn't* incriminate him—from Manafort's legal team.

6/ Criminal investigative SOPs (standard operating procedures) establish why Trump believed federal law enforcement would seek to have Manafort incriminate him: because investigators do not cut deals with a national campaign manager *without* seeking to indict someone higher up.

7/ When the special counsel's office charged Manafort with offenses that could put him in federal prison for 20 years—and then entered into a cooperation deal with him—the only person above him in the campaign hierarchy for him to "flip" on was the presidential candidate himself.

8/ The legal analysis published digitally by @Slate confirms the uncharged offense on Manafort would have been a federal criminal—election—conspiracy with individuals he knew from his work on behalf of the Kremlin were Kremlin agents. This is the "flip" Trump was terrified about.

9/ The Mueller Report establishes that Manafort had been a paid Kremlin agent, via Oleg Deripaska—who says he "does not separate himself" or his interests from those of the Kremlin—since the year Manafort moved into Trump Tower (2006), and that he remained so during the campaign.

10/ Manafort's work for the Kremlin—once thought to have ended in the early 2010s—in fact continued in and past his work as Trump's campaign manager. Mueller's report and testimony establishes that Manafort anticipated both loan forgiveness and cash from the Kremlin for his work.

11/ Mueller's report and testimony establishes Manafort as a Kremlin agent in 2016 and after—federal law establishes he was in a criminal conspiracy with the Kremlin based upon his agreement to coordinate with and provide proprietary data/intelligence to the Kremlin mid-campaign.

12/ That Donald Trump thought Mueller would indict him if Manafort flipped means that Trump had knowledge of the criminal conspiracy Mueller opted not to charge Manafort with—a decision Mueller made so Manafort would flip on Trump. Trump's criminal obstruction prevented any flip.

13/ The Mueller Report outlines how Trump—through a joint defense agreement with Manafort and his lawyers acting as intermediaries—made it absolutely clear to Manafort that he would be "taken care of" if he refused to "flip" on his former boss. The obstruction hid the conspiracy.

14/ For those who haven't read Vol. 1 of the Mueller Report, I'll now briefly summarize the federal criminal election conspiracy Mueller chose not to indict Manafort for because of a) him thinking Manafort would flip on Trump, b) an "error" of law by the special counsel's office.

15/ I put "error" in quotes advisedly. Mueller cut a cooperation deal with Manafort because his office *knew* the federal criminal statutes governing US election law do not require "explicit" coordination; that Manafort had violated these laws; and that he could "flip" on Trump.

16/ There was no reason for Mueller to cut a deal with Manafort—or for his office to represent to federal courts that the lies Manafort told the SCO that mattered were the lies hiding this conspiracy—if the feds did not believe Manafort had committed an election conspiracy crime.

17/ Here's what Trump's campaign manager did: within days of his hire by Trump he contacted a known Kremlin agent—Kilimnik, who Manafort knew to be a Kremlin agent both through direct contact with him and his (Manafort's) other deputy, Gates—to seek compensation from the Kremlin.

18/ That compensation—Mueller's report and testimony confirms—was in the form of both loan forgiveness and direct payment from Kremlin agents. In recompense, as a quid pro quo that was either implicit or explicit (federal law criminalizes either), Manafort would aid the Kremlin.

19/ Manafort thereafter—almost immediately—did at least 3 things:

1. He directed his deputy Gates to *regularly* provide proprietary internal polling data to the Kremlin that would allow the Kremlin to better direct its domestic disinformation campaign (a crime) against America.

20/

2. Paul Manafort offered Kremlin agents internal campaign intelligence assessments about Trump's campaign tactics and strategy, the better to convince the Kremlin that Trump had a chance of winning and that its pro-Trump hacking and disinformation campaigns should continue.

21/

3. Paul Manafort initiated an 18-month negotiation with Kremlin agents (beginning August 2, 2016 and continuing into '18) with the goal of the negotiations being to promise Putin sanctions relief in exchange for pre-election assistance to—and post-election comity with—Trump.

22/ The Mueller Report and major-media reporting establishes that Trump was in regular contact with Manafort about his campaign from the day he was hired and about *sanctions* both before and after his fake "firing" in August 2016. And we know that the "firing" was indeed fake.

23/ The Mueller Report and major-media reporting establishes that Trump remained in regular contact with Manafort on the subject of sanctions after his "firing" in mid-August 2016; indeed, eyewitnesses say Manafort basically continued advising Trump exactly as he had done before.

24/ Immediately upon his "firing," Manafort went on a cruise with one of Trump's two best friends, Thomas Barrack (the other is Howard Lorber) during which cruise Barrack orchestrated payment to Manafort of millions and millions of dollars via sources tied to the Trump campaign.

25/ This cruise remains under federal probe—and Gates remains a federal cooperating witness despite the filing of the Mueller Report because Gates is now the lone witness who can testify to what Manafort and Trump did, who knew of it, and Trump's efforts to sway him via Manafort.

26/ Mueller's testimony indicates the question of collusion (whether a person is compromised by a foreign power due to implicit or express coordination) is now in the hands of the FBI's counterintel division, which—with Manafort's prison sentence—explains the lack of new charges.

27/ Mueller testified he wanted to move quickly to file a report; the implication is he didn't want to interfere with the 2020 election—given that he'd been investigating the many insidious ways the Russians had done just that in '16. He knew counterintelligence work was ongoing.

28/ Mueller knew Trump had successfully obstructed justice to keep Manafort from cooperating; Manafort was in prison and going nowhere; Gates remained a cooperating witness; counterintelligence investigators were looking more explicitly at collusion and are continuing their work.

29/

There is no legal or factual basis to say Manafort was *not* in a criminal election conspiracy with the Kremlin.

There is no legal or factual basis to say Trump did *not* know Manafort could incriminate him or that he did *not* take steps to obstruct/tamper with Manafort.

30/ Given Mueller's testimony, his report, major-media reports, and investigative SOPs, there are *no facts* and is *no law* on the other side of what this thread explains: a conspiracy occurred; Mueller wanted to charge it; he knew Trump knew of it; Trump obstructed that charge.

31/ The only question that remains is why the special counsel's office misstated federal election law and withheld charging Manafort with the conspiracy they believed he'd engaged in—and whose revelation they knew Trump had obstructed. But the fact of ongoing CI work explains it.

32/ To explain: we learned yesterday a shocking fact—that Mueller didn't subpoena Trump *though he knew he could* because he felt he had enough evidence of corrupt intent *and* needed to bring *his* part of the Trump-Russia case to an expeditious end. He testified to all of this.

33/ The Manafort situation was identical: Mueller's work confirms he knew a crime had occurred—hence the Manafort cooperation deal—and Manafort could flip on the only man higher than him (Trump). But charging a crime in light of Trump's obstruction would've taken months—or years.

34/ With Vol. 2 (obstruction), Mueller relented on actions he knew he could take because he felt he had enough evidence. With Vol. 1 (conspiracy), Mueller relented on actions he knew he could take because an ongoing counterintelligence investigation would achieve the same result.

35/ Legal experts should feel free to check the legal analysis of @jedshug and the investigative, factual, and Mueller Report analyses I've provided here and elsewhere. They are correct: a conspiracy occurred; the evidence indicates Trump knew of it and obstructed its disclosure.

36/ Moreover, additional evidence comes from the mouths of the men themselves: Trump told friends Manafort could incriminate him; Manafort told Gates Trump was tampering with him; Kilimnik and other witnesses confirm Manafort committed election conspiracy crimes with the Kremlin.

37/ Still other witnesses—including one Manafort family member and Trump's best friend Barrack—confirm how close Manafort and Trump were, what the men discussed and how frequently and when, and the fact that work was indeed being done to compensate Manafort even post-"firing."

38/ If you wonder why this legal and investigative analysis didn't come together until Mueller's testimony, it's because many of us were waiting for several revelations that came during his testimony which are *central* to this thread. 15 of them are here:

39/ One other thing we learned by Mueller's testimony—though I've been saying it here for 2 years—is that this is the most complicated federal criminal investigation of our lifetimes. No one person can have full mastery over its contours. So it's no surprise no one in media does.

40/ We often ignore legal/investigative experts to listen to what media tells us. Media didn't follow the facts or law laid out here so it has reported—and will keep reporting—no conspiracy occurred. But lawyers and investigators should feel free to check the work done here. /end

PS/ Many reading this may now say, "What now? Manafort committed a federal election crime and conspiracy with Kremlin agents, all the evidence says Trump knew of it, Mueller knew Trump knew of it, and Trump committed crimes to block Manafort from revealing it"—so what comes next?

PS2/ First, the fight to get Congressional (and eventually partial public) access to the FBI counterintelligence case file, findings, and report began only *yesterday*. The Congresspeople *leading* that fight know federal law, and do not disagree with the analysis in this thread.

PS3/ Second, now that Mueller's testimony—see my link to my prior tweet earlier in this thread—has revealed at least five new pieces of information that allow the understanding I've laid out here to crystallize, a public information campaign must begin in D.C. *and* social media.

PS4/ Anyone on social media can now—in good faith—say the following:

1. Manafort criminally conspired with the Kremlin during the '16 presidential election.

2. The special counsel's office believed this and it acted accordingly.

3. Trump believed this and he acted accordingly.

PS5/ And one can then add this addendum:

4. The FBI Counterintelligence Division is now conducting an investigation into collusion between Trump and foreign powers—including Russia—that is far larger in scope than Mueller's work and has Rick Gates as a key witness on conspiracy.

[Celerity]

15. what thread app did you use? mine made a goddamn mess as Twitter formatting changed yesterday

TIA

[littlemissmartypants]

11. Kicked and recommended. Nt

[Roland99]

13. What's that smell? Smells like a lot of smoke. Must be a burn nearby!

[shanti]

19. Blown away at this analysis

Seth lays it OUT!

[triron]

22. knr

[triron]

23. kick for visibility

[ecstatic]

24. But is a counterintel investigation safe with Barr as AG?

Is it a different agency conducting the investigation?

[triron]

25. Definitely no.

[democratisphere]

27. Yes, there is collusion. Yes, there is conspiracy.

Mueller did not do his job thoroughly. It is up to Nancy Pelosi and the House to get it done! They will!