Hasen acknowledges that the tax-return maneuver is more of a “gambit” than a surefire strategy. “The Supreme Court might, if faced with the issue, hold that state legislators cannot require tax returns of presidential candidates even given state legislatures’ much greater power over presidential elections,” he wrote. He also warned that Republican legislators would almost certainly retaliate in state legislatures that they controlled.
Existing legal precedents regarding states’ power (or lack thereof) to restrict federal candidates pertain mainly to congressional candidates rather than presidential aspirants. The most famous episode involved Adam Clayton Powell Jr., the legendary New York City congressman who represented Harlem during the civil rights era. House members who grew weary of scandalous reports turned on him after his 1966 re-election and voted to exclude him from the legislative body. After three years of legal battles, the Supreme Court sided with the congressman in Powell v. McCormack.
Chief Justice Earl Warren wrote for the court’s majority that “in judging the qualifications of its members, Congress is limited to the standing qualifications prescribed in the Constitution.” Since Powell met those qualifications, “the House was without power to exclude him from its membership,” he concluded.
https://newrepublic.com/article/147310/can-states-ban-trump-ballot-doesnt-release-tax-returns
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