A Majority of Economists Think the Next Recession Will Come by the 2020 Election

[Quixote1818]

Erik Sherman Fortune
June 4, 2019

How’s the economy doing?

Better than you might expect, and worse than you might have hoped, according to the National Association of Business Economics.

According to the organization’s latest survey of 53 professional economic forecasters, the consensus is that the economy will continue to grow at a 2.6% pace in 2019, down from last year’s 2.8% rate, and will slow to 2.1% in 2020. However, as the outlook for this year still seems good, a majority think a recession is possible before the next presidential inauguration.

Personal spending remains a bright spot. “The consumer continues to be the driver in the U.S. economy,” said Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist for the National Retail Federation and one of the analysts of the report. “Real personal consumption expenditures for 2019 is 2.4% year-over-year growth. It was 2.6% in 2018.”

More:
https://fortune.com/2019/06/04/next-recession-2020-predictions/

[Kablooie]

1. If it hits right after the election the new president will be blamed.

So if it's going to happen I sure hope it becomes noticable before the election.

[global1]

2. Trump Will Do Everything To Prop It Up....

so it doesn't hit before the election. I wondering if he had anything to do with the latest Fed decision?

[jmowreader]

4. He had EVERYTHING to do with it!

Remember how Trump was screaming about wanting a major interest rate cut? And when he got it, he was pissed it wasn't big enough?

Trump needed a rate cut for one and probably two reasons: he's trying to delay the inevitable major recession until 2021 (definite) and (probably) the orange fuck is going to build something and needs cheaper money.

[DetlefK]

5. In spring 2009, Fox News tried to sell the "Obama-Recession" and the "Bush-Recovery".

See, the major down-turn came after Obama was elected, but the first programs to combat the recession had been passed by George W. Bush. Therefore it's Obama's recession and Bush's recovery.

[BigmanPigman]

3. Did you watch Bill Maher last night?

Two things...
1. A guest said that a recession isn't coming and it doesn't come in cycles as most people believe. He said that the economic indicators are pretty strong regarding this.

2. Bill was surprised to hear this (so was I since I listen to Robert Reich) and said he sort of hoped that there would be a recession since it would likely keep tRump from getting reelected and it was a high price to pay but worth it by saving the country in the long run.

[DetlefK]

6. I watched an interview from 2017 that said a small recession would naturally occur in 2020-2024.

In 2018 I read an interview that said 2021.

Now we're reading late 2020.

[Hoyt]

7. Majority thinks a recession is POSSIBLE. To me, that means don't count on it.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

8. External factors could come into play and be a trigger.

* No-deal Brexit.
* War in Middle East.
* China plays real hardball with tariffs.
* Severe natural disasters.
* Russia turns against tRump........

For example......

[TreasonousBastard]

9. When was the last time a "majority" of economists was right?

[duforsure]

10. I suspect that's putin's goal

And what's behind red Donnie's tariffs and policies, and why he bullied the fed chairman not to raise rates, to make it worse when the economy goes to hell.

[GeorgeGist]

11. False headline. /nt

I