Brexit: Why the Irish backstop matters

[OnDoutside]

Jonathan Powell was the UK’s chief negotiator in the Belfast Agreement talks, and he knows what he's talking about.

Subsequently, he did an interview with the Irish Times

Boris Johnson will “abandon” the DUP if he wins an election, to secure a Canada-style free trade agreement for Britain, the UK’s chief negotiator in the Belfast Agreement talks has predicted. Jonathan Powell said he believes the British prime minister is building an “English national party” and is in a strong position to win a snap general election which will mean he no longer needs DUP support. The Conservatives are in government in Westminster with a razor-thin majority through a confidence-and-supply deal with the Democratic Unionists’ 10 MPs.

Mr Powell, former chief of staff to ex-prime minister Tony Blair, told RTÉ’s Marian Finucane show that he believes Mr Johnson is pursuing a Canada-style free trade agreement with the European Union after leaving the bloc which will mean Britain being outside the Single Market and the Custom’s Union. “That means Northern Ireland would have to go back to the original backstop [guarantee against a hard border],” he said. “There would definitely have to be special measures for Northern Ireland in that case and there would definitely be a border down the Irish Sea.” Mr Johnson has only two options – for the EU to back down on his demand for the backstop to be scrapped, or to call a general election to shore up his own mandate, said Mr Powell.

SNIP

“He is turning the Tory party into an English national party. “They are not interested in Scotland, they are abandoning the Tory party in Scotland which has a very different position and they are focusing entirely on trying to win seats in England. If they get that, those are the interests they will protect.” Mr Powell, who helped to broker peace in the North, said Mr Johnson was pursuing a “clever strategy” and the DUP have a “problem politically”.

“The DUP has a relatively weak leadership under Arlene Foster,” he said. “It is at least two parties. It is the party in Westminster and the party in Northern Ireland – they have two rather different interests. “Someone like [DUP East Antrim MP and the party’s Brexit spokesman] Sammy Wilson likes hanging out in the bars with the ERG [European Research Group], the right wing of the Tory party, and they are very much signed up for Brexit,” he said. “Those who have to contest local Assembly elections in Northern Ireland.. their support is more dubious about the virtues of a no-deal or hard Brexit.

“I think the DUP have a problem politically and they are very unlikely to back down on anything that undermines the union, but if it gets past that, they are in a more complicated position.”

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/johnson-will-abandon-dup-for-free-trade-deal-jonathan-powell-predicts-1.3976861

[hunter]

1. This shit gets real there.

[OnDoutside]

2. Yep. The problem that Powell didn't mention though is that if Johnson cuts the DUP loose, and offers

a customs border down the Irish Sea, it's not beyond the bounds of possibilities that the DUP (and even nuttier elements, yes there are) will stir the shit in the Unionist community, to stoke violence on their side.

That said, if you wanted to see England leave the EU, the easiest solution for the Conservative & Unionist Party is to double deal on the DUP, by calling a snap election and hope to win a majority without the need for the DUP's votes. But for Corbyn, Labour would romp home in a General Election....it's such a mess.

[Myrddin]

3. And this scenario was pointed out...

repeatedly, pre-referendum.

The leave camp just parroted 'it won't be a problem - it's project fear'

Johnson's irresponsibility is going to destroy UK.

[OnDoutside]

4. Absolutely true. If the DUP weren't holding the balance of power, a deal would have already been

done to put the Customs Border in the Irish Sea. For Brexit to happen, it has always been the most logical solution. The Conservative and Unionist Party have always paid lip service to the Ulster Unionists, because of political expediency. I think all this is hastening the day of the breakup of the UK, if not this time, then soon enough. This has dropped the mask of English Nationalism, which will make it impossible to repair.