Another Blue Wave Is Brewing As Trump's Numbers Collapse In 10 Swing States

[babylonsister]

https://www.politicususa.com/2019/08/13/blue-wave-brewing-trump-numbers-collapse-swing-states.html

Posted on Tue, Aug 13th, 2019 by Sean Colarossi
Another Blue Wave Is Brewing As Trump’s Numbers Collapse In 10 Swing States


Donald Trump has done nothing to reach out to swing voters during his presidency, and he appears to be suffering in key battleground states as a result.

As MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow pointed out on Tuesday, Trump is underwater in 10 swing states – including Utah (!) – ahead of next year’s election, and it should have his reelection team deeply concerned.

Rachel Maddow MSNBC
@maddow
Trump underwater in...
- Wisconsin (by 10)
- North Carolina (by 9)
- Virginia (by 17)
- Utah (by 3)
- Pennsylvania (by 12)
- Texas (by 1)
- New Hampshire (by 26) (not a typo)
- Michigan (by 11)
- Iowa (by 4)
- Arizona (by 9)

Wait... Utah?

snip//

The suburbs are abandoning Trump

Donald Trump is banking on his enthusiastic base to give him another four years in the White House, but suburban voters are abandoning him. It might not matter if the MAGA base is riled up come 2020.

As The Hill noted on Tuesday, Trump is “performing poorly with some of the key voting blocs that populate the nation’s suburbs, notably white women and white college graduates.”

His unpopularity among these groups could be enough to push the swing states he barely won in 2016 back into the blue column.

As The Hill added, “The margins were so narrow that any shift in the suburbs could swing those states back into the Democratic column, even if Trump were to retain the enthusiasm of his base.”

With the help of Russian interference, former FBI director James Comey’s ill-timed letter and an unpopular Democratic nominee, Donald Trump was able to thread the needle in 2016.

As of today, the numbers indicate that he will have a difficult time replicating his 2016 victory next year.

[Hekate]

1. Hope to God

[Demovictory9]

36. Plus 1000

[struggle4progress]

2. Up next: "The Russian back-channel and the GOP's 2020 vision"

[Butterflylady]

54. Please, I for one have had enough

Of threads about Russian interference, if we can get out the vote and I truly believe this time around with what this anal idiot has done to our nation, we will we have a blue wave. If we keep up being so negative we will lose. I for one will not bow to negativity.

[struggle4progress]

63. Yes: we have an obligation to work as hard as we can for 2020

But the GOP-Russian issue is real, and we should not ignore it

That doesn't mean 2020 is hopeless, if we do our work

[Ace Rothstein]

3. We really need the suburbs to abandon the Republican Party.

Abandoning Trump is not enough.

[Liberal In Texas]

4. Makes for an interesting map:

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/trumps-state-by-state-approval-ratings-should-scare-him.html

[NCLefty]

6. I'll be voting for our nominee in TX, but that map is a fantasy. :P

He's only down by 1 point in TX in that poll.

I'm super worried about all the non-voters. 92 million last time. Are they mostly checked out still? Probably. Eek!

[crazytown]

19. The DNC does not agree with you

They are holding the third debate in Houston. There have been three polls showing Biden / and or Beto 7 points in front of Trump in TX

[napi21]

32. I don't think there will be so many non-voters in 2020.

1. Hillary was VERY unpopular with Repubs & a lot of Dems.
2. The media had hammered the "Hillary will win" for many months, and some non-voters felt why bother!
3. A lot of people who voted for "The Liar" regret doing so. They're upset by so many things he's done.
4. Russian tactics have been exposed so they won't be nearly as effective again.

I believe he'll keep his 35%-40% base, but that won't be enough to win again.

[Alpeduez21]

78. With regards to 4.Russian tactics have been exposed

so they won't be nearly as effective again.

Perhaps the trolling of social media will not be as effective but it will still have an effect.
More importantly, they have access to voting polling. Hell, some repukes gave it to them. Imagine showing up to vote but democratic voters have had their polling location moved. Russians have had this information for years. 2016 was practice. With the complete lack of concern by repukes I think Russia could be poised to be VERY disruptive

[JCMach1]

68. I know enough Republicans here in TX to know he's not particularly popular even among them...

If Biden and/or Beto is on the ticket, TX is at least in play (though I still say a very purple reach).

[xmas74]

34. Look at some of the red states

In 2016 Missouri was deep red, like a sunburn. 2018 midterm showed it getting lighter. I believe I read a few others were the same.

Will our nominee win Missouri? Not unless the DNC gets boots on the ground and reminds the farmers whose trade war is preventing them from making a profit. It could possibly help with congressional and gubernatorial races.

[pstokely]

59. MO isn't worth it, if it's even in play, tRump will be doomed in PA, WI, MI

geographically too big for too few electoral votes, the biggest media markets overlap into states that the definitely won't be in play other than maybe IA

[xmas74]

64. For president,no

But our other races need some backing. I don't know how many candidates Ive heard in the last two cycles state that they received little support. The governor's race will be big. People don't like Parsons while Galloway polls well. Just a few stops and fundraising by a couple of big ticket members could help a few campaigns.

They'd be smart to put money in Galloway and Gross. Gross is totally grass roots. I saw people at the GOP tent listen to him and were very interested in exactly how much power the AG has to influence their lives. They're interested in his promise to attack dark money and they're interested in Galloway and her audit discoveries.

[kurtcagle]

50. I'd even color AK (very light) blue

Alaska's GOP governor Mike Dunleavy has slashed the State ferry system, cutting off many coastal rural communities altogether from access except by seaplane. This is leaving a very sour taste in the mouth of even die-hard Republicans there. Couple that with the tariffs (China was a big consumer of Alaskan seafood) and the picture looks fairly bleak for the GOP in 2020 there.

[Norbert]

52. Much as I'd like to see it, Ohio probably won't turn blue

We have yet to learn our Brownbackenstein lesson. Maybe in about 7-9 years.

[NCLefty]

5. Nice, but the polls always tighten up at the end. Take nothing for granted.

Trump is the greasiest pig the GOP has produced in our lifetimes.

[Wounded Bear]

7. So much this...nt

[Ace Rothstein]

9. You also have to take into account that just because someone doesn't approve of Trump...

...that doesn't mean they won't vote for him.

[not fooled]

16. +++

we know the kochs and their ilk will pour billions into the campaign in order to grease the skids for red don.

They will pay any price in order to get another 4 years to drive the nation over the cliff.

We need our numbers to overwhelm their anti-democratic aims.

[Progressive Jones]

42. A pig, for certain. And, for much of his base, pork gravy is a beverage. nt

[ProudMNDemocrat]

8. If these states turn , Trump is done.

The candidate who gets to 270 first, is the next president of the United States.

Trump may try to contest the results, but he must concede. Which we know he will not do.

[Thekaspervote]

13. He may not concede, but come 1/20/21 when the clock chimes noon security will escort him away

[ProudMNDemocrat]

18. And Trump gets served with an Indictment for crimes while President.

That is the icing on the cake.

[Quixote1818]

10. This site has him down 11 in Iowa and 1 in Nebraska

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

[Quixote1818]

11. Winning Texas sure would be a shocker for the GOP

Won't that be the day when it happens!

[crazytown]

21. I hope GWB doesn't campaign against trump.

I couldn't stand it.

[Meadowoak]

29. If Texas flips, the Republican party is done.

[onetexan]

55. +1 -K&R

[Thekaspervote]

12. More good news tonight!

[House of Roberts]

14. It would be nice if he could lose by a bigger margin than John McCain

lost to Obama in 2008.

[sarisataka]

15. That's nice,

But can we at least nominate a candidate before planning the victory party?

I recall in the week prior to the election in 2016 when I questioned if some people were overconfident about states that appeared shaky, being "guaranteed" a Democratic victory and that I could "take it to the bank".

[Vdizzle]

27. I agree.

We can’t underestimate their treachery. I hold no illusions that this will be a fair election. I bet they sit comfortably and don’t worry about swing states because they know they have already rigged it. I’m sure Putin has put the orange thing in the White House at ease by assuring him that “they got this”.

We have to overwhelm them at the polls. We have to overcome their cheating.

[Midnight Writer]

17. Whew! Looks like my State is safe. Guess I don't have to worry about it.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

39. What state?

[Sogo]

20. Underwater Trump....

....may he drown in a blue tsunami in November, 2020....

[crazytown]

22. I'd settle for an accident in a bathtub.

[uponit7771]

23. Russia will help him in 2020 ... ALSO

[kairos12]

24. They switched votes.

They will do it again.

[uponit7771]

28. +1, or added votes or registration shaved since we don't have provisional ballot audits we'll

... never know

[Laura PourMeADrink]

38. So what's the magic #? I would think there's some

threshold where they realize if we exceed X% no one will believe u "won" Donald. Wasn't Hillary leading in ,MI WI &,PA last time he stole it,?

[IronLionZion]

25. That is encouraging, but we can't get complacent

our side has gotten positive airtime recently with many great candidates and ideas shared in the debates while Trump spews garbage.

The polls were all wrong in 2016 too when we all thought Hillary would win big.

[OliverQ]

26. Why isn't Florida on that list?

And I wonder if Republicans will see this and decide they better ditch him before they lose everything.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

40. Yes. And NV

[rocktivity]

30. This news dovetails perfectly into the -10.1 average of Real Clear Politics' approval polls

as of today. And Real Clear Politics is about as GOP as you can get:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

But we're still close to a year away, and we mustn't put anything past them. For instance, don't be surprised if we don't have have a functional Internet at this time next year:

Leaked Draft of Trump Executive Order to 'Censor the Internet' Denounced as Dangerous, Unconstitutional Edict

Josh Hawley’s bill to limit your Twitter time to 30 minutes a day

And you certainly shouldn't be surprised that Trump's base seems to be shrinking. They were a minority group to begin with -- there wasn't enough of them for him to win on the popular vote alone the first time around, remember?


rocktivity

[xmas74]

35. Hawley is a pos.

Unfortunately, he's my senator in what was predicted to be a tight race. It was so odd how he managed to beat Claire by such a large margin when nothing showed it being a runaway race.

[SWBTATTReg]

76. I disagree...Claire's numbers were low to begin with and she didn't gen the excitement that...

Hawley did. She was my senator and I was too, disappointed at her standings. We need to get someone to face Hawley next time around who a younger more dynamic candidate in MO and take him out. He's a religious nut imposing his will and desires on Missourian's rights to be on the internet for however long that they might want to be, etc.

[Lucid Dreamer]

46. Every body STOP getting encouraged by these good news polls.

And you certainly shouldn't be surprised that Trump's base seems to be shrinking. They were a minority group to begin with -- there wasn't enough of them for him to win on the popular vote alone the first time around, remember? -- rocktivity

People that support trump don't say so in polls. That's a big reason why everybody is so surprised when they don't match with reality.

Favorable poll data should be banned on DU. Does nothing but get us in trouble.

--I am kidding of course. But not much.

[nitpicker]

51. +1

Again, my general rule is to add (at least) 5 percentage points to Repug candidates.

By that rule, don't expect UT, TX or IA to be in the D column.

-

[calimary]

31. She was NOT "an unpopular Democratic nominee"!

“Unpopular Democratic nominees” don’t get a popular vote that’s roughly THREE MILLION MORE votes than the GOP opponent got.

FUCK YOU, whoever wrote that story!!!

[Thekaspervote]

41. This! Thank you

[Laura PourMeADrink]

44. And despite it all, winning more votes. And despite it

All having to live with a literal criminal charading as a bad president, she bites her tongue. I'd be on TV every day!

[MadDAsHell]

72. Wow, an incredibly encouraging article and THAT'S what you took away?

That's the problem with cult of personality politics.

We've got incredibly encouraging signs but a ton of work yet to do for 2020 and you're still handwringing over perceptions of the nominee from 3 years ago...

[littlemissmartypants]

33. Polls are as dependable as the sand on the ocean's shore, every time a wave breaks.

And as varied as the wind. We don't need false hope. We need boots on the ground. I signed up today to help on the first campaign of many I plan to support this time around.

The only way we win is by making connections, facing reality without the fantasy of polls, one person at a time.

GOTV is the answer to every question.

It is really the only answer that I trust.

[klook]

66. + 3 million. (nt)

[TeamPooka]

37. Keep talking and tweeting Donnie.

[Hoyt]

43. Trying to hold my breath until 11/3/2020.

[Dave in VA]

53. Flush the turd on November 3rd!

Saw this somewhere and thought it was worth repeating!

[Hoyt]

61. +1. I saw an ad for a tshirt this morning.

[Lucid Dreamer]

45. Oh, goody-goody, the map is SO BLUE. We're going to win, win, win...

said everybody here in 2016.

Hell, even I was saying that all the way till 2am.

As MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow pointed out on Tuesday, Trump is underwater in 10 swing states – including Utah (!) – ahead of next year’s election, and it should have his reelection team deeply concerned.

Sure, Rachel. That sounds real familiar. You were still believing that even after the networks called the 2016 election.

I have stopped believing any BLUE MAP polls. Such complacency is perilous.

We need every vote in the center and right/center that we can get and not get all giddy with Big Blue Map news.

Wake up and remain fearful. Campaign like you are losing, not winning!

[smirkymonkey]

47. I am only optimistic as long as I know that they aren't going to cheat their way

to victory again. And I can't say I am sure of that.

I really hate these cheating motherfuckers and there has got to be a way to shut them down before the election. Our next election must be fair and free from tampering by both foreign and domestic hijackers. We cannot let this happen again! Especially since we know that they will try it again. Forewarned is forearmed.

[Lucid Dreamer]

48. If elections are won by campaigning, we need to campaign better.

If elections are won by cheating, we need to cheat better.

[smirkymonkey]

49. You know something? I am all for cheating this time around, as long as we win.

I will do anything to win. I don't care what it takes. We need to be absolutely ruthless this time. Fuck them. We need to beat them at their own game.

[calimary]

79. Unfortunately, seems to me that if they're going to cheat, and that's a GIVEN by now,

then in order to level the playing field, we have to cheat, too. If we play the rules and the other side doesn't, that tilts the playing field against us no matter what we do. Besides, the Russians are still in the game, too, and they're even more highly motivated to keep their "asset" in power for as long as possible.

By now, I'm like you, smirkymonkey. Until the other side stops cheating and plays by the rules, I don't see why we still have to. All that means is we get our asses handed to us, every election cycle.

Better yet, we might have the element of surprise on our side. I suspect the opposition assumes we're just chumps and we won't cheat because values or principles or whatever. So then maybe we should do the unexpected. If that's the way the game is played, by now (and it IS), then we have no hopes of winning unless we can rig the game our way to some extent. At this point, there's no other way to level the playing field.

I've said for a long time by now that we need to be sneakier, and fight dirtier, because THAT is the playing field now. Otherwise, we're just a bunch of sitting ducks who play by the rules, win the popular vote, and then get rolled by weasels playing dirty and pulling whatever sneaky shit they think they need to pull, to win. We need some modern Machiavellis on our team.

The only game in town is WINNING. By hook or by crook. I believe it was Vince Lombardi who once said "there's only room for one place, and that's FIRST place."

[colsohlibgal]

56. Encouraging

Nice to seeing Ohio at least light blue. If he loses Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, let alone Ohio our long National Nightmare will be over and that evil dumb vain Orange Freak will be chargeable as a private citizen.

[GoCubsGo]

57. That "unpopular" candidate got the second-most number of votes

in the history of US Presidential elections Only Barack Obama got more votes than her. She beat The Asshole by over 3 million votes. This "unpopular" narrative needs to stop. It's bullshit.

Looks like the republicans are going to have to up their cheating game next year, if they want to keep that shitstain in office.

[LanternWaste]

58. I think that after the general election campaign begins in earnest...

...(and all other things being equal) Idiot Trump's numbers will collapse and a lot of conservatives, tired of rationalizing the irrational will simply not show up on voting day.

[Jarqui]

60. I have felt for some time that Trump is not sustainable as a candidate

5 of the world's biggest economies are at risk of recession
https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/14/economy/recession-risk-economies/index.html

T-bills inverted again yesterday - as they did at the start of the year ... a sign of a coming recession.

The only thing propping Trump up has been the false sense of a good economy ... that's only really been good for those at the top of the income chart.

Between the steady impeachment bad press, his ongoing incompetence and an economy that is about to tank, the GOP will throw him under the bus and present a shinny new candidate with minimal time to vet. If Biden is picked, they will present a candidate who represents change in Washington.

We need to keep pounding away at pinning Trump on the GOP. They've enabled him and deserve the consequences in the next election.

[sacto95834]

62. In the words of Captain Picard...

"Make it so"

[Kid Berwyn]

65. No time to let up.

Double down the pressure on Cheatolini.

[ooky]

67. We could pick up a big senate seat in North Carolina where he is down by 9.

We need to blanket NC with our ground game, pick up the electoral votes and throw out Tillis at the same time.

Obviously Michigan, Wisconsin and PA are huge, but NC looks to be a big opportunity as well.

[JCMach1]

69. Snapshot of possibilities, nothing more

I see this poll as the full Summer reaction to Trumps now openly racist policies and rhetoric.

[Catherine Vincent]

70. Come on Texas!!

[we can do it]

71. Bring the blue tsunami.

[TlalocW]

73. Utah is considered a swing state?

Huh.

TlalocW

[CapnSteve]

74. Greetings from one of the "Texas Blueberries "!!

...aka Houston, Austin, El Paso, Dallas, and San Antonio! Harris County (Houston) went for Hillary in 2016, and is in the vanguard to flip Texas back blue. Most people don’t remember - Texas was blue 30 years ago (the heady days of Gov. Anne, Barbara Jordan, Molly Ivins...) and will be again!!

Tick tick tick...

[SpankMe]

75. Um, we ain't takin' Utah n/t

[Bernardo de La Paz]

77. Hillary wasn't unpopular. She won the POPULAR election by about 3,000,000 votes. . . . nt