3 out of 4 economists predict a U.S. recession by 2021, survey finds

[dalton99a]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/19/out-economists-predict-us-recession-by-survey-finds/

3 out of 4 economists predict a U.S. recession by 2021, survey finds
The findings reflect growing skepticism the U.S. economy can withstand a protracted trade war without serious harm amid a weakening global outlook
By Jonnelle Marte
August 19 at 3:33 PM

Most economists believe the United States will tip into recession by 2021, a new survey shows, despite White House insistence the economy is sound.

Nearly 3 out of 4 economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics expect a recession by 2021, according to results released Monday. The outlook reflects growing skepticism among economists and investors that the U.S. economy will be able to withstand a protracted trade war with China without serious harm amid the weakening global outlook.

Hedge fund manager Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, told CNBC last week that he now believes there’s a 40 percent chance of a recession before the 2020 election. In February, he had estimated that figure to be 35 percent.

Stock markets gyrated last week as investors grappled with continuing U.S.-China trade uncertainty and absorbed grim data showing Germany and eight other major economies are in a recession or on the verge of one. And Wednesday, the bond markets sounded their own warning when the yields on 10-year Treasury bonds briefly fell below those on two-year Treasury bonds. The scenario, known as an inverted yield curve, has preceded every recession since 1955 and offers a sign that investors are piling into safer assets.

[True Dough]

1. Yes, but do they also recommend

Trident gum? How about Crest toothpaste?




Seriously, I'm in the recession is coming camp. We're due and Trump's tariff folly and trade wars will exacerbate matters.

[Kurt V.]

2. dalio isn't an economist. but i see what they did there.

[Hoyt]

3. We are kind of overdue for one based on historical norms. trump just makes it worse.

[COLGATE4]

4. Just in time to fuck up the newly elected Democratic President

[maxsolomon]

5. Naw, it won't happen until 11/4/2020

So we'll get 4 years of Trump and Kudlow blaming anyone and everything but themselves.