Recession fears are rising. Here's the status of economic bellwether Elkhart, Indiana.

[JoeOtterbein]

Alexandria Burris, Indianapolis Star Published 12:11 a.m. ET Aug. 18, 2019 | Updated 7:55 a.m. ET Aug. 19, 2019

[link:https://www.indystar.com/story/money/2019/08/18/recession-elkhart-indiana-rv-recreational-vehicle-shipments-economy/2021354001/|

Elkhart County, Indiana, proudly calls itself "the RV Capital of the World." But there's a belief that where Elkhart County goes, Indiana — and the rest of the nation — is sure to follow.

Economists like to use the RV industry, which dominates the manufacturing city on the very northern edge of Indiana, as a barometer for the health of the U.S. economy. And the news coming out of Elkhart is giving some plenty of reason to be worried.

Total wholesale shipments of recreation vehicles are down 20.3 percent, year to date, across the industry, signaling to some Indiana economists that a recession is on the way. Companies such as Elkhart-based Thor Industries Inc. have slashed production and cut back the work week to slow the pace of production.

Economists reading the tea leaves for signs of a recession have typically held declining RV shipments as a strong warning of a contracting U.S. economy.

[elleng]

1. VERY interesting.

shipments of recreation vehicles are down 20.3 percent

[dawg day]

2. Elkhart County either has the lowest unemployment rate in the state....

or the highest.

Depending on the RV industry-- which is quite dependent on consumers having a lot of disposable $.

[Grasswire2]

3. another indicator mentioned on MSNBC is sale of wooden pallets...

...because that predicts shipments of goods sold.

[roamer65]

4. The best thing for this planet would be a massive economic depression.

Idle industry does not generate CO2.

Disagree all you want, but if the planet dies there won’t be an economy nor a human race.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

5. Okay, so I'm going to be a bit contrary here.

Why the fuck would the RV industry, of all things, be considered a bellweather for the economy???? What percentage of people (good citizens all, I'm sure) actually own RVs?

Wouldn't a much better bellweather be something like fast food sales? Or how much people are spending at Walmart?

[Cosmocat]

6. Disposable income

A robust economy there are more people w the excess of money to put into bigger "luxery" items. A slowing econony, less people have the money to buy items like this.

Early indicator.

[genxlib]

7. I'd go a step further

Disposable income AND the confidence to spend it.

Even people with money typically slow their discretionary spending if they see dark clouds on the horizon.