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We are nowhere near a recession.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPNOW2.2% quarterly growth is right in line with the last 10 years. Just a continuation of the good economy created by President Obama.
The Dow is stable.
Economy is stil creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs each month.
Dotard won't let a trade war with China happen. He just wants to build supense so he can pretend to have a big 2020 victory when him and Xi sign a deal that they probably have in mind now.
It's all smoke and mirrors. He wants us to focus on this strength of his and not his manifest unfitness and criminality.
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And I sure wouldn't bet against one, either. I'm no expert in these things, but I think it's really difficult even for the experts to predict. This guy might argue with you.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc190805/
The chart below shows our economic composite drawn from standardized regional and national Federal Reserve and Purchasing Managers survey data.
You’ll notice that new orders (green) have experienced the strongest plunge in recent data, with the employment line (blue) slightly lagging that decline. That’s how the sequence of economic data typically evolves. New orders and backlogs, though volatile, generally lead. Production measures, not surprisingly, tend to coincide with broad movements in economic output. Finally, employment measures lag, sometimes considerably, because decisions surrounding job creation and layoffs tend to be careful and time-consuming.
You’ll notice that new orders (green) have experienced the strongest plunge in recent data, with the employment line (blue) slightly lagging that decline. That’s how the sequence of economic data typically evolves. New orders and backlogs, though volatile, generally lead. Production measures, not surprisingly, tend to coincide with broad movements in economic output. Finally, employment measures lag, sometimes considerably, because decisions surrounding job creation and layoffs tend to be careful and time-consuming.
As a result, if we think in terms of a 12 month year, we find that the 10-month change in our economic activity composite tends to be well-correlated with the employment “surprise” over the next two months – defined here as the difference between the actual change in non-farm payrolls and the average change over the previous 10 months.
The collapse we’ve observed in leading economic measures over the past 10 months is now consistent with monthly job creation falling nearly -350,000 jobs short of its 10-month average of 186,000, implying potential losses of as much as -164,000 jobs per month in upcoming reports. You’ll notice in the chart below that recent non-farm payroll data has clearly bucked these progressively deteriorating expectations. The last time we saw this sort of deviation was in October 2000, a month before the U.S. economy rolled into recession. Again, employment data lags, and month-to-month data can be noisy.
The collapse we’ve observed in leading economic measures over the past 10 months is now consistent with monthly job creation falling nearly -350,000 jobs short of its 10-month average of 186,000, implying potential losses of as much as -164,000 jobs per month in upcoming reports. You’ll notice in the chart below that recent non-farm payroll data has clearly bucked these progressively deteriorating expectations. The last time we saw this sort of deviation was in October 2000, a month before the U.S. economy rolled into recession. Again, employment data lags, and month-to-month data can be noisy.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/20/a-recession-dashboard-from-credit-suisse-indicates-the-economy-is-nowhere-near-a-recession.html
Credit Suisse created a “recession dashboard” in which the firm tracked the state of certain economic indicators at the start of each recession dating back to 1973. Currently, the yield curve is the only economic indicator pointing to a recession. In past recessions, indicators like inflation trends, job creation, credit performance, ISM manufacturing, earnings quality and the housing market were all recessionary or neutral, while the current state of the economy is telling a different story.
Economic data looks nothing like that of a recession, according to Credit Suisse.
The firm created a “recession dashboard” in which the firm tracked the state of seven main economic indicators at the start of each recession dating back to 1973. In past recessions, most of the indicators were “recessionary” or “neutral,” while the current state of the economy is telling a different story.
“Key signals such as labor and credit trends remain quite healthy,” said Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, Jonathan Golub, in a note to clients Tuesday.
Last week, the U.S. bond yield curve inverted, a phenomenon that historically presages a recession. That was the only one of the seven major indicators Credit Suisse tracks to signal a downturn. In past recessions, indicators like inflation trends, job creation, credit performance, ISM manufacturing, earnings quality and the housing market were all showing weakness.
The labor market is strong with the total labor force hitting a record high of 163.4 million, according to the Labor Department’s July jobs report. And credit conditions have not deteriorated to recession levels.
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IF one is coming may it soon hit, and NOT hit within months of our new POTUS being sworn in.
Yup. Because the greatest indicator of a robust economy is one in which a significant market indicator has been basically stagnant for the last 5 quarters.
"Dotard won't let a trade war with China happen."
Too late.
