Consumers are 'starting to see the pain' from the trade war

[Mike 03]

Source: Yahoo Finance

Now more than a year into the U.S.-China trade war, American consumers have so far been largely shielded from the negative impact of tariffs. But one major Wall Street investment bank says that’s all about to change and it has the data to prove it.

“I think you're starting to see the pain,” Bank of America Securities Senior U.S. Economist Joseph Song told Yahoo Finance’s The Final Round. “We have a proprietary consumer confidence index, and it actually dipped on the trade headlines in the latest reading.”

The Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. Consumer Confidence Indicator for consumer sentiment dropped since mid-July by 1.7 points to 53.9. In a note to clients, the bank’s Global Research team writes that “the ebb and flow in consumer confidence seems squarely tied to the U.S.-China trade war via negative headlines and financial market reaction to said trade war.”

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What does this mean for consumers?

“I think when those consumer tariffs go into effect September 1st, that's when you can actually start to see consumers pull back,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Joseph Song told The Final Round. “And our expectation is that growth is going to start to slow below trend at the turn of the year. ”

The Global Research team at BofAML found that only 26% of consumers surveyed affirmed that they favored the trade war against China.

More at link plus a useful chart: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumers-are-starting-to-see-the-pain-from-the-trade-war-163555724.html

[Newest Reality]

1. Well, well, welly, well, well.

The Trump Recession is going to rear its petulant, bloated head for the Holidays.

That 26% can enjoy their little bubble until they feel the lightness in the wallet, the emptiness in the bank account and when the Grinch pays a visit for their Holidays. I can almost hear the bubbles of denial popping.

[True Blue American]

5. Trump said

He was going to not impose tariffs until after the Holiday season but has he considered the payments that comes due in January? Just like those who over spend on the Christmas season.

[dchill]

2. There is something drastically wrong with 26% of consumers.

[House of Roberts]

4. I've been paying higher prices for lumber

since almost the beginning of the Trump maladministration. He slapped tariffs on Canadian softwood first.

[True Blue American]

8. The layoffs are getting

Worse in Wisconsin, Pa. and Michigan. Same goes for Ohio but they have not gotten around to that yet. The GM Lordstown plant, steel mills, coal mines in West Virginia.

Farmers hurting

I am even glad I stocked up on coffee when it was on sale. That is going way up. Should we stock up on toilet paper, too?

I am being sarcastic but could it be true?

[3Hotdogs]

10. China don't grow coffee. I hear they grow tea but I don't know for sure.

[True Blue American]

11. They announced there would

Be a tariff on coffee early in the week. I thought Brazil and Columbia were the big coffee growers.

[Danascot]

6. There's a piece of crap for that.

[customerserviceguy]

7. I doubt that

Who's really feeling the pain are the retailers who built their business on selling Chinese-made crap instead of US made quality products. People who had manufacturing jobs in this country have already dealt with the pain, now it's time for the CEO's of major retailers to reap the harvest of what they have sown for decades.

And the same for their shareholders who cheered it on while American workers were losing their jobs.

[True Blue American]

9. I do not

Feel sorry for them. They bought crap, then wonder why no one would buy. Designers, all of them, cheap junk today. No quality at all.

[smirkymonkey]

12. It's not just Chinese made crap, it's raw materials as well.

Even for products made in the US, the manufacturers are hurting. I know, as I work for a large consumer products company and they have issued a notice to managers about how tariffs are hurting our bottom line. Trump is starting to alienate the business people who once supported him and that is going to hurt him bigly in the next election.

[customerserviceguy]

15. Yes

I've heard the whining from auto workers over tariffs on steel and aluminum, who don't seem to think that American steel and aluminum workers need a job, too.

The answer is to source raw materials from places that are not being tariffed. Like maybe the USA.

[cagefreesoylentgreen]

13. I noticed this at IKEA this weekend

An model of cart in one color that had been out for awhile was one price, but the same model in a recently introduced color was $5 more.

[dalton99a]

14. 'China is not paying for it': Trump tariff hike hits everyone from beer brewers to book publishers

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/24/china-is-not-paying-for-it-trumps-tariffs-hit-beer-brewers-and-book-publishers.html

‘China is not paying for it’: Trump tariff hike hits everyone from beer brewers to book publishers
Published Sat, Aug 24 2019 9:00 AM EDT Updated Sat, Aug 24 2019 9:13 AM EDT
Spencer Kimball

The trade war between the U.S. and China started more than a year ago, but past rounds of duties have mostly impacted parts and components that are not obvious to the average consumer.

It’s this latest round that could impact everything from the craft beer you drink on the weekend to the musical instrument you play or the book your kid reads.

Trump raised the tariff rate that begins to go into effect on Sept. 1 from 10% to 15% in response to China imposing tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S. goods Friday.

Small and medium-sized businesses are scrambling to make plans — from delaying store openings, to implementing hiring freezes to even considering price increases.

[smirkymonkey]

16. I heard Trump at the G7 say that China was paying some astronomical amount due to his

tariffs. He is such a raging idiot. He really has no idea how this works at all.

[roamer65]

17. Let inflation roll!