How I project how Dorian will play out, based on my observation of land development in
Last edited Fri Aug 30, 2019, 12:52 PM - Edit history (2)
Central Florida.
First point to make is that this is a slow moving hurricane, which means that it will be worse than the Charlie and Francis hurricane that blew over quickly. And they did cause a great deal of damage with high winds.
For Dorian, my heart goes out to those on the east coast that will take the brunt of this storm. No way to soft pedal this, they need all the help they can get - including prayers. From West Palm to Kissimmee it will be bad if it comes in as a Cat 4. I trust that De Santis and the stormwater experts are on it, looking for the driest areas to house people that need high ground. I believe this is the first 24 hours of the storm, from Monday to Tuesday.
From Kissimmee it will go North through Central Florida. By this time, Dorian will be a Cat 1, so very few concerns about wind damage, but huge worries with flooding. The part that caught my eye is that it will take 24 hours to get through Central Florida. If so, I know that every Stormwater expert that has ever worked in a local or state government is shitting their pants. People, local government has cut corners on wetland development for so long that they all feared heavy rains over a short period of time. They know what the projections looked like on paper, and we didn't have strong government to toe the line on sensible growth. Instead, we had anti-government, anti-regulation control of state law for several decades and now we are about to see if their strategies will hold.
I do remember speaking to one community developer who I had little respect for, but even he was alarmed when he said that they were pushing the 100 year flood zone levels to reach your door step. That means, your front yard, play ground and swimming pool can be under water, and it would still meet standards.
The natural progression of bad community development came to a hilt last year when there was a quiet announcement that everyone in Florida should get flooding insurance. Though they might not refer to it as flooding. Something like backwater flow.
It's a little late, but I hope that Dorian reopens the door to revisiting the stupid roll backs on community development that we had to endure in the 90s.
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I haul US Mail, so it is possible I'll get a trip out of town tomorrow, but my older brother lives with me and he'll be here to look after things.
The first place I rented when I moved here 7 years ago (wow! Time flies) was on a tributary of the St. Johns about a mile north of where I sit. It definitely floods and during the last big one to affect this area, it came 2/3s of the way up the back yard which is a good 100 yards and a 10' or more rise from the the normal waters edge to the back door of that house. So the highest I ever saw it was about 6 or 8' above the normal height.
We have been fortunate that there have been no electrical failures here during the last 3 that affected us, so I hope that stays the case.
My oldest brother lives in Lake Placid, south of Sebring and that area could get it real bad.
Not much we can do other than be as prepared as possible.
Hunker down and stay safe.
Thanks, hon. Hope you're well!
?w=800&h=469This one is nothing to mess around with, its getting more organized by the hour, think Andrew
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I knew none of this - appreciate your expertise -
Thank you so much!
