How an impeached Trump wins

[brooklynite]

Axios

President Trump is showing how he could be impeached, survive and still win re-election, something never done before in American history.

Between the lines: Trump officials think two things must unfold for this to happen: Republicans must stay unified, in votes and voice, and the economy must be strong, in jobs and market returns. The trends are strong on both fronts.
- Every single House Republican voted against a formal impeachment proceeding, a powerful show of unity. In the Senate, there are very few public signs of the Great Red Wall cracking.
- Importantly, Senate Republicans are discussing how they will defend Trump even if Democrats prove beyond a shadow of a doubt Trump offered Ukraine a quid pro quo to investigate Joe Biden.
- Sources close to Republican leadership told us they expect many GOP senators to ultimately settle on a talking point that Trump's actions were "inappropriate but not impeachable."
- The economy is humming, too. Markets are rising; growth continues, albeit more slowly; and more jobs are materializing. It's hard to argue that the Trump economy is anything but consistently strong one year out from the presidential election.

The big picture: "The worst-case scenario" — that the Senate convicts Trump — "only presents itself if there's a material change in fact pattern," said a source close to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. "If we know what we know right now, there is no problem."

Behind the scenes: McConnell has privately told Trump that Senate Republicans aren't as susceptible to his pressure as House Republicans are.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

1. Plus the whole Ukraine deal is out there already. And

It's 49-49. People have already heard it and with each passing day, becomes less of a big deal.
Why? By the sheer fact we are all functioning. There were no repercussions from Trump's crime

Our best course may be to expedite and move beyond. Start acting like we are running against trump and not each other

[Kingofalldems]

3. Ah, no it isn't 'all out there'.

[brush]

5. Not quite. This is all still unfolding. And impeachment, if you haven't heard, is...

quite a repercussion as more and more damaging info will come out with the release of the House committee hearings transcripts and the upcoming public testimony.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

7. No haven't heard Impeachment is a repercussion

Of course it is and was months if not at least a year ago. Reacting to OP. It's point was that at this exact point in time there is no sea change in Trump's status or his electability chances.

IF that does not change ..best we impeach and move on to actually running against him. There are probably a zillion bad things he's done that a go-getter candidate could uncover.

[brush]

9. So why say there are no repercussions?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

11. Favorabilty hasn't changed that much

[Orrex]

2. If an entrenched, cancerous power eliminates all legal forms of accountability...

the people will enact another form of accountability.

[brush]

4. An impeached president has never run for re-election. This is all speculation.

IMO the adjective "impeached" in front of an incumbent's name will lose him/her votes.

[beachbumbob]

6. with no "Stein" effect, trump has ZERO chance to be voted in 2020

[Laura PourMeADrink]

8. Like that!!

[exboyfil]

10. Tulsi?

Besides the three firewall states what other states are available to be picked up? Let's say Philadelphia and Pittsburgh's power grid is shut down by a virus on election day?

I think it is 50/50 at best right now.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

12. Tulsi deal an enigma to me. I know the right is pushing

Her...but not as much to Dems but to repukes. Two repukes I know both say she's the only Dem they'd consider. So why would they be trying to lose their own voters? Makes zero sense. Granted she has gained on our side but on their side too. This would be a wash?..

[beachbumbob]

13. I don't go down the "what ifs" and IF something like a grid goes down, the local people

can make adjustments on voting, it will not stop voting from happening.

No, without a "Stein" effect, trump is hapless and GOP knows it and why ANY 3rd party push for Warren or Sanders must be stopped.

[exboyfil]

14. If they don't get the nomination

I hope they both do the right thing and support the candidate. History will remember any failure on their part.

[beachbumbob]

15. If WE ARE NOT smarter than that , we DESERVE what happens to us

remember 2016? If the "smart people" do the not support the lesser of 2 evils crap again, the blood is on their hands just like nader voters in 2000 and stein voters in 2016.

Trump voters didn't elect trump, it was the Stein voters that did it