Forget the national polls. Only 5 states matter in 2020.

[Cattledog]

FL
PA
MI
WI
AZ

[DENVERPOPS]

1. And it will take a miracle

to swing anyone of those states.

Not that it matters. I'm telling you the fix is in like never before in History. Trumpies have castrated the Federal Election commission, (check it out) and McConnell defunded all three government investigations that were underway into Election Fraud...........( check this out too!)

[brooklynite]

5. The only thing worse than conspiracy theories are lazy ones...

You presume that the Elections in 2020 will be rigged, even though they couldn't be (in WI, MI and PA) in 2018.

[DENVERPOPS]

10. I don't understand

are lazy ones?????? Not sure I understand what you mean, or tried to mean......

[brooklynite]

12. A conspiracy theory based solely on "we know they would....." is lazy in my opinion

[Unclephil]

2. I beg to differ

He is not winning PA or MN. The big question is WI.

[Baltimike]

3. bullshit. nt

[struggle4progress]

4. Election day is almost 350 days away. I'm not forgetting anything yet

[roamer65]

6. He won't win MI.

You can take that to the bank.

[Greybnk48]

7. I don't think he'll take Wisconsin either.

But I have no solid proof. Just anecdotal.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

8. As someone who lives in Central WI, I'm not so confidant.

I think it all comes down to voter turnout in Madison and Milwaukee.

[LakeArenal]

11. Many don't understand the choke hold Pukes have on WI

Central WI is alive with evangelical trumpers. They are everywhere.

If they fail, Koch’s will buy votes.

[Celerity]

9. IF we win WI, MI, and PA, there are only 3 possible paths (and they almost identical with

only NE-2 and ME-2 switching) for Trump to win, and two involve a 269-269 tie with the House (the Rethgs will have 26 state delegation at worst, so he will win with the smallest possible margin) putting Rump in (and CRAZY civil unrest happening in that event).

here are the 3 scenarios (and they involve him sweeping every other remotely possible swing state, NV, NH, FL, NC, AK, TX (not really a chance we can win it, but I include it anyway), AZ, IA, OH, MO, and BOTH (for 270 EC votes) ME-2 and NE-2 (or one of those for the 269-269-tie scenarios, IF he loses BOTH NE-2 and ME-2, we win with 270 on the nose)

I am putting the only other sorta bluish states (CO and VA, where Rump is MASSIVELY underwater) firmly in our column, as there is basically zero chance that we in MI, PA, and WI, yet lose those 2 states, less that one in a thousand chance of that happening. No other states are remotely in play.



OR (we flip ME-2 yet lose NE-2)



OR (we flip NE-2 yet lose ME-2)

That is it, he has ONLY those 3 paths IF we win WI, MI, and PA, and only one path to 270, the other 2 are the nightmare 269-269 House installs him scenarios that will rip apart the nation to a huge degree as we will control the House by a large margin, BUT the Rethugs will have the exact number of delegations to put Rump in (each state gets 1 vote, 26 needed to win) due to gerrymandering and their overwhelming number of the small states where they are the majority or even the only member, such as MT, WY, SD, ND, AK.

[rainbow4321]

13. Interestingly...he's made SEVEN trips to TX this year alone

And Pence recently went to Austin.

IMHO, they are worried about TX. He only took TX by *10 points* in 2016. Prior winning repukes running for POTUS have averaged a 20 point TX win. Throw in the numbers from Beto/Cruz race...that had Cruz campaigning/begging for votes in bright red Pampa, TX (clearly he knew the metro areas and border cities/towns were not going his way). One Pampa voter was interviewed and even he was shocked Cruz went there. Even once very red Tarrant County (Ft. Worth, etc) went PURPLE during Beto/Cruz race. No doubt that left TX repukes shaken.
Then throw in how Houston’s Russian consulate workers asked in 2016 if they could “monitor” local polling sites (per Texas Tribune newspaper, right around Election Day). Request was denied by local officials. Trump/Russia knew that they had a TX problem in 2016.

I really wonder if their internal polls about TX have them shook up.

He goes to TX *7* times, Pence once...and not to the historically known “swing states”? Media never took time to point out the weak 10 point spread in 2016. All they ever do is assume TX is red.

They sure as hell are not gonna publicly say they’re concerned but actions speak louder than words!

[pnwmom]

14. I doubt that. Florida was key one year. Ohio another.

Last time it was Florida and two other states.

And none of these situations were predicted ahead of time.