Heather Cox Richardson

[applegrove]

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com

Letters from an American - January 12, 2020

"SNIP......

The Senate is currently controlled by Republicans, but this is a bad cycle for them: they have 23 vulnerable seats while the Democrats have only 12. (Historical tidbit here: Senate terms are each six years but are staggered—one third of the Senate turns over every two years—and the original terms were determined by drawing straws. Because… the Founders were just regular people, and how else would they do it? And yes, some senators were accused of cheating to get the long straws.)

A standoff between a House and Senate controlled by different parties is not at all unique. But what’s unusual now about the struggle between the parties for control of the nation is that today’s Republican president is a wild card who cannot be trusted to help his own party. Indeed, the chances are good he will hurt it. That puts McConnell in a tight—and to this political historian, fascinating—spot.

Trump’s erratic behavior means that McConnell does not want Senators to be on record either for or against him if he can help it. If senators vote to convict him of the impeachment charges he certainly has committed, they will have to answer to angry base voters, who will turn to farther right Trump loyalists who will lose in a general election to virtually anyone who can fog a mirror. But if they vote to acquit Trump, they will be at the mercy of the news cycle, and it seems pretty clear that the next few months are going to bring bombshells.

Here’s what’s happening on that front. In the short term, Rudy Giuliani’s associate Lev Parnas, who spread around Russian money to GOP leaders, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, has offered the contents of his cell phone to the House Intelligence Committee. We do not yet know what is on that cell phone, but if he is offering it up in hopes of cutting a cooperation deal, it should be something significant. There are rumors out there—still rumors—that what is on his phone is a game changer and that it involves Trump. We’ll see.

....SNIP"

[sprinkleeninow]

1. This phrasing--heh heh.

"..puts McConnell in a tight—and to this political historian, fascinating—spot."

A treat to visualize a twister-upper getting a taste of his own motif.