Well, this REALLY isn't encouraging (Coronavirus) 👀

[Dennis Donovan]

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing

HOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating... #WuhanCoronovirus #CoronavirusOutbreak



2/ “We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing...

3/ ... We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan....

4/ we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Our model suggests that..

5/ travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. Our findings are...

6/ ...critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage. With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that...

7/ a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.”!!!! #wuhanvirus #CoronavirusOutbreak #ChinaCoronaVirus ...

11:06 PM - Jan 24, 2020

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Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing

I’ll be honest - as an epidemiologist, I’m really deeply worried about this new coronavirus outbreak. 1) the virus has an upward infection trajectory curve much steeper than SARS. 2) it can be transmitted person to person before symptoms appear — I.e. it is silently contagious!

9:10 AM - Jan 23, 2020

Source material for his assertations:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1.full.pdf

About Dr Feigl-Ding:

[Iliyah]

1. They say it's worst than SARS . . .

21st Century, with all the knowledgeable medical expertise at hand but mother nature can still kick our asses.

Side note: I hope this was not man made:

[maddiemom]

25. I keep thinking of King's "The Stand."

[AllyCat]

35. Me too. Gulp.

[tblue37]

36. I think of the pandemic movie "Contagion." nt

[Roland99]

51. Captain Tripps

[Moostache]

57. Would that make Trump the Walkin' Dude?

And maybe Oprah is Mother Abigail?

Trying to make light of what is rapidly looking VERY ominous...

[Roland99]

64. Hillary/Nancy as Mother Abigail

Twitler is Trash Can

[Hortensis]

65. Think Randall Flagg is still to appear. Pence is definitely a lieutenant.

Trump might be Trashcan Man before Flagg appears and he decompensates: "My life for you."

[BluNoMatterHu]

33. Pretty sure it was created.

Look at what’s in the area of outbreak. Think the worst of humans and they’ve either considered it or already done it. I’ve given up all hope of a decent world. Humans deserve to be taken out.

[meadowlander]

62. What's in the area of the outbreak?

[Kaleva]

2. What are you doing in preparation of a possible world-wide pandemic?

[Dennis Donovan]

3. Me?

How is that relevant?

[Kaleva]

4. Just curious as to how seriously you, and others, take this.

If you aren't doing anything or not making plans, then you might not think this is much of a deal. At least to the many of us who live in North America.

[Dennis Donovan]

5. Um... I posted about it on DU?

I'm not an epidemiologist, nor am I a health care worker. I plan on doing what I've been doing since retiring... staying the hell home.

Why the hostility?

[Kaleva]

10. I apologize if I'm coming across as hostile to you 'cause that is not my intent.

People generally expend great effort when faced with a serious situation and do little or nothing when the possible threat is considered to be very minor or of no consequence to themselves. It's human nature to behave this way.

Your lack of action or planning indicates to me that you personally don't think that this new virus presents any threat to you. At this time.

Again, nothing personal. I'm just curious as to how seriously people here at DU are taking this.

[Dennis Donovan]

11. I'm not panicking... yet.

That's something?

[Kaleva]

17. Neither am I

I'm already well prepared to live in isolation with my wife for about 45 days if it comes to that. Thankfully, we are on the downside of winter.

[MFM008]

59. There isnt

Much you can do with an airborne virus.
In the 1918 flu pandemic even isolated
pacific islanders got it.

[Kaleva]

60. The Spanish Flu was spread like any other flu. By humans.

"T H E S A M O A I S L A N D S.
A Commission appointed by the Governor-General of New Zealand to inquire into the circumstances and causes of the introduction of epidemic influenza into the Islands of Western Samoa reported that in their opinion there was no doubt whatever that epidemic pneumonic influenza was introduced into Western Samoa by the S.S. ” Talune” on the 7th November 1918. This ship left Auckland (where influenza was seriously prevalent) on the 30th October, and influenza broke out among the passengers and crew during the voyage to Samoa. Within seven days after her arrival, pneumonic influenza was epidemic in Upolu. It spread with great rapidity throughout this island and later throughout Savaii, the other island of Western Samoa."

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/oceania/h5n1-tracking-ai/20443-1918-influenza-pandemic-in-the-south-pacific

[smirkymonkey]

19. Strange reaction from some.

I see this as a serious matter. We are overdue for a worldwide pandemic. It it only sensible to be alarmed by this one. As of right now, there is no cure for it.

[DUgosh]

26. I appreciate your post

Thank you

[Dennis Donovan]

27. I posted it as information about something the public doesn't know much about, yet

I'm certainly not trying to fear-monger.

[paleotn]

40. Forewarned is forearmed...

Thanks for posting real information! No need to run to the hills. Its R_0 is high, but not near smallpox high. So, by doing the things we're supposed to do every flu season, the vast, vast majority of us will be fine. It's panic and craziness that's always the real threat, instead of logically processing factual information as it becomes available and making rational choices based on it.

[EndlessWire]

66. Sometimes

it helps to gather info to evaluate a situation properly. I don't think anyone posting info has done anything wrong.

They are showing on the news film footage where China is building the first emergency hospital. But, then they said there was yet another new hospital to boot. Things are happening overnight.

I believe in handwashing, covering your mouth and nose when necessary, and staying home. The immediate problem is always food.

Also, let's see how Trump et al use this situation to help themselves.




.

[rainin]

48. I'm attending to my immune system - the same thing I do to protect myself from the flu

[USALiberal]

24. What an odd question, read about "Discussion Boards". nt

[Kaleva]

50. Discussing preparing for a possible worlfd-wide pandemic is what discussion boards are for.

We discuss. You may wish to ignore the situation and hope it just goes away and you have the right to do that.

[ramen]

30. Not OP, but spreading awareness seems positive, given how little else I can do.

Other than that, washing my hands and not travelling. Why, what are you doing?

[Kaleva]

52. Nothing more then what I'm doing preparing for climate change.

As i mentioned in another post, my wife and I can go into isolation for about 45 days. We have enough LP gas, food, prescription medicene on hand to last that long .

[paleotn]

38. Best defense is what we're supposed to do every flu season....

Wash your hands often and correctly. Carry and use hand sanitizier. Though it may not be effective against this corona strain, it does help cut down on secondary infections. Don't sneeze or cough in the open. Use your damn elbow or a tissue. If you feel sick, stay home!! Thus reducing who you come in contact with. Be cognizant of how much you touch your mouth, nose or eyes. Other than health authorities isolating those with or suspected to have contracted the pathogen, that's all we can do. ....But on the positive side, those simply things are very effective.

[Aristus]

43. You forgot "Get your vaccinations".

AFAIK, no one has yet announced a vaccine for the coronavirus. I don't even know if there is one in development. But one of the best things we can do to prepare ourselves for possible exposure and infection by coronavirus is getting immunized against the diseases for which a vaccine exists.

One of the worst effects of viral illnesses is the way they leave us vulnerable to co-infection with other diseases because our immune system is too busy with the one infection to have resources to fight another.

So get your flu shot, and if you are of the age to get the pneumonia vaccine (under age two or over sixty-five, and at-risk patients in-between), get that, too.

All of the precautions you mentioned above are important, and should not be shirked. Add vaccination to them.

[paleotn]

47. Thanks! Exactly....

Reduce the chances of secondary infections. Give your immune system some added ammo.

[LiberalArkie]

58. It seems that most die from pneumonia. So that vaccine is a must have

[My Pet Orangutan]

6. Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding should know better

than make over the top alarmist statements to the press. Predictions like "thermonuclear pandemic level bad" are stupid beyond belief.

[Roy Rolling]

9. Right

Shoot the messenger, that’s the better response.

That’s like when the house is on fire, complaining the alarm is too loud.

This virus does have pandemic characteristics and capabilities. I’m “taking cover” now.

[My Pet Orangutan]

13. If you want to track the actual epidemiology of the Coronavirus, I've posted it here

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=12904180

[Dennis Donovan]

14. "never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in entire career. I'm not exaggerating

That sounds pretty qualifying to be considered "alarmist".

[My Pet Orangutan]

16. At this stage

these projections are highly sensitive to the assumptions made Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, some stated like the identification rate, some unstated, and all without evidence, anecdotal or otherwise.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

21. It's also unintelligible English. He's never seen a virality coefficient in a textbook or a paper?

Surely he reads scientific journals in his field.

Never seen this medical measure outside of Twitter?

[My Pet Orangutan]

23. Measles has an r0 of 14-18

I'm sure it's in one of his journals somewhere

[Dennis Donovan]

29. Fair criticism. No idea what he meant by that, but here's his bio:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Ding

Eric L. Feigl-Ding is an American public health scientist who has received awards for his work in epidemiology, nutrition, and health economics. He is a visiting scientist at the Harvard School of Public Health and Chief Health Economist and Senior Vice President with Microclinic International. He is a Paul and Daisy Soros Fellow, and a WEF Global Shaper. He was also a 2018 Democratic candidate for Congress from Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district, as an advocate for public health, drug safety, and science.

Ding was a whistle-blower in the drug safety risks of the painkillers Vioxx, Celebrex, and Bextra, and was recognized in The New York Times, and in the book Poison Pills: The Untold Story of the Vioxx Drug Scandal.

Ding founded the Campaign for Cancer Prevention, a 6 million member online cancer education and fundraising campaign medical research, featured in The New York Times He is a recognized drinking water health advocate and founded ToxinAlert.org, as a public alert tool to warn communities about drinking water contaminations to prevent future lead poisonings like the Flint Water Crisis.

Early life and education
Feigl-Ding was born in Shanghai, China, and his family immigrated to the US when he was age 5. He was raised in Central Pennsylvania, and was an alum of the Pennsylvania Governor's School for Health Care. As a child, doctors diagnosed that he had developed a baseball-size tumor in his chest. He received an initial disease prognosis of less than 5 years to live, but he survived with medical treatment he received at Hershey Medical Center.

He attended The Johns Hopkins University, graduating with Honors in Public Health and Phi Beta Kappa. He earned his dual doctorate in epidemiology, and his doctorate in nutrition, with a doctoral minor in biostatistics, from Harvard at age 23. He then completed his postdoctoral fellowship at the Harvard School of Public Health. At Harvard, he has taught in more than 2 dozen courses in public health and clinical research, and received the Derek Bok Distinction in Teaching Award from Harvard College. He attended Boston University School of Medicine, but did not complete the M.D. degree because of competing commitments.

Work
Feigl-Ding's work focuses on epidemiology, nutrition, health economics, and the prevention of population-wide disease. He has published over 100+ scientific papers, including major reports in the New England Journal of Medicine, Journal of the American Medical Association, PLoS Medicine, The Lancet. His body of research together have garnered over 36,000 external citations.

He was a whistle-blower in the drug controversy surrounding the safety and risks of the dangerous painkillers Vioxx, Celebrex, and Bextra. Chief corresponding author of a priority JAMA report, he was recognized for his role in The New York Times,. Dr. Ding's key study established that Merck should have known the serious health dangers of Vioxx several years before the drug was pulled off the market, as chronicled in the book Poison Pills: The Untold Story of the Vioxx Drug Scandal.

He was also Chief Health Economist and Director of Epidemiology of Microclinic International, as co-principal investigator of several intervention programs for obesity and diabetes prevention in the US and abroad. He has also led the Team Up 4 Health program with Kentucky's Bell County Health Department to improve rural obesity. He also developed and led adolescent nutrition public health programs with Statens Serum Institut of the Danish Ministry of Health. He also co-developed the community health program for obesity/diabetes used by the UN and currently serving hundreds of thousands of UNRWA Palestinian refugees in Jordan and Palestine since 2015.

Having survived a childhood battle with a baseball-sized tumor, Feigl-Ding founded the Campaign for Cancer Prevention, and was featured in Newsweek, The New York Times,. He is also known for developing a direct-to-science model for accelerating cancer research, and advocate of crowdfunding for medical research. His efforts had raised over $500,000 in public donations for innovative cancer research, and he led cancer prevention advocacy platforms totaling over 6 million members.

He was also a consultant to the World Health Organization, advisor and report chairman for the European Commission, as judge for the VH1 Do Something Awards, and an expert member of the Global Burden of Disease Project and US Burden of Disease Collaboration. His work has been cited by directors of CDC and CMMS in the framework of the "Million Hearts" Initiative, his research thrice recognized as ‘Best of American Heart Association’. A former keynote presenter at Google TechTalk, Feigl-Ding has been featured in Google Research for development of a 130-year cohort study of Major League Baseball of the dangers of obesity and mortality in athletes.

Political Campaign
Feigl-Ding ran for Congress as Democratic candidate representing his native Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district. He campaigned on a progressive platform advocating science, healthcare for all, public health, and not taking corporate PAC money. During the new PA 10th district primary, his grassroots campaign outraised every opponent with $300,000 in just 10 weeks, including the Republican incumbent Scott Perry. He received the most national endorsements in the primary, and garnered the support of individuals and groups including: Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-CA), DNC Vice-Chair and Rep. Grace Meng (D-NY), Rep. Brian Baird (D-WA), 314 Action, Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus's ASPIRE, AAPI Victory Fund, Harrisburg City Council President Wanda Williams, Science Energy & Environment Change, At The Table, United Brotherhood of Carpenters, International Union of Painters and Allied Trades, and the International Union of Operating Engineers. His campaign was also featured in Science Magazine.

Recognitions and Awards
His work has been featured in several books, including CauseWired: Plugging In, Getting Involved, Changing the World, Poison Pills: The Untold Story of the Vioxx Drug Scandal, Zilch: The Power of Zero in Business, Shift & Reset: Strategies for Addressing Serious Issues in a Connected Society, The Networked Non-profit, and Thinfluence.

He has received awards, including the Boston Chamber of Commerce's Outstanding Young Leader Award (2012), the American Heart Association's Scott Grundy Excellence Award (2015), the 'Best of the American Heart Association' (2013, 2014, 2015), the Sigma Chi Mark V. Anderson Leadership Award (2016), the CUGH's Global Health Project of the Year Prize (2014), the Paul and Daisy Soros Fellowship for New Americans (2008), and the Harvard University Derek Bok Distinction in Teaching Award (2009). He was also recognized by Craig Newmark as among “16 People and Organizations Changing the World in 2012”.

YMMV

[paleotn]

41. I agree, that's unnecessary hyperbole

If people would take the numbers he's stating and do a tiny bit of googling on their own, they'll see this is like a very dangerous flu virus, but not even close to being as communicable as smallpox. It's not a fucking apocalypse.

[My Pet Orangutan]

42. Updated: R_0 2.5

Following the thread, he is getting a lot of stick.

[paleotn]

46. Flu level R_0. Not surprising and makes better sense.

[Ms. Toad]

61. The new estimate is from one of the three scientists who made the original estimate

Link to tweet

?s=20

Original paper:

We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1

[rainin]

49. If it's bad - tell the truth

I'm tired of parental types thinking we can't handle the truth. Oh no, there will be panic!!!!!!!

NO, tell me it's bad, when it's bad. I'll protect myself.

[still_one]

53. +++

[TEB]

7. Very scary

[dewsgirl]

8. 😳👀, HOLY MOTHER OF GOD terrifying to see an epidemiologist,

saying something like this.

[bucolic_frolic]

12. Mad Cow was gonna get us too

I think they should compare their assumptions to the extensive data they have on flu epidemics. And their hyperbolic predictions about chicken epidemics. Viruses mutate. Even worst case, it will be a different epidemic in 8 weeks.

Meantime push the panic button.

[Dennis Donovan]

15. The point of what he wrote is that this isn't like Mad Cow or SARS n/t

[bucolic_frolic]

18. Well that's what he says. It's his scientific opinion.

What degree of probability is associated with his modeling?

[Bernardo de La Paz]

20. If you read the tweets you see the 95% confidence interval of 3.6 to 4.0 around estimate of 3.8.

In other words, 19 times out of 20, with this data, the real value will be within the confidence interval which is pretty tight around 3.8.

[My Pet Orangutan]

22. On the assumption the identification rate is constant,

rather than rising as the population and physicians become more widely informed of the disease symptoms. This is not comparable to SARS where the authorities denied the problem for 9 weeks.

[muriel_volestrangler]

28. FWIW, here's the article he's quoting:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1.full.pdf

Thread replying to the OP one here:

Link to tweet

It points out the article's authors have already lowered their R0 estimate to 2.5:

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

(that's from "Infectious disease modeller/epidemiologist. Director of J-IDEA and the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis", as quoted here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51148303 )

Link to tweet

[Dennis Donovan]

31. Thanks! Added it to the OP

[Crazyleftie]

32. This map shows an exponential increase in cases

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[muriel_volestrangler]

34. Note the lead author of the paper has now downgraded the R0 value to 2.5

Link to tweet

[My Pet Orangutan]

44. +++

This.

[defacto7]

37. If I remember correctly, the last couple of outbreaks were curtailed

by natural mutation. I'd wait to see if the outbreak becomes a real pandemic before expecting the worst. That's no comment on the info. I like to stay on top of it.

[cab67]

39. Other epidemiologists are more sanguine abou this.

For example: https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-01-24/china-coronavirus-panic

[paleotn]

45. Calm, folks....

Process the information logically, ignoring the hyperbolic statements. Even hyperbole by those with lots of letters at the ends of their names. It's asymptomatically communicable, human to human. That's the key piece of info I've been looking for. That's not good, but at R_0 3.8 +/-, it's less contagious than mumps (for those of us old enough to remember mumps), far less contagious than smallpox and waaaay less than measles. Higher than most flu strains, but not unmanageable. Comply with CDC's flu season guidelines and I'll bet you any amount of money you'll be just fine and I'll retire a very, very rich man.

[still_one]

54. +++

[at140]

55. [phone]

[at140]

56. At end of day, best defense against any virus is......

Get enough sleep, eat good nutrition and Wash hands as often as you can.
If your immunity is low, wear a mask in crowded places.

[Baclava]

63. Stay away from freshly slaughtered meat markets...

The role of China’s wet markets in the coronavirus outbreak

A mysterious lung virus that has so far killed 17 people and sickened hundreds more may be the latest infection to come from China‘s wet markets.

“It likely originated in some non-human animal and jumped to a human,” said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist at Toronto General Hospital.

The narrow, crowded markets — brimming with everything from freshly caught fish to live poultry and reptiles — are “a breeding ground” for new and dangerous infections, said Evangelyn Alocilja, a professor and researcher of biosystems at Michigan State University.

The close contact between humans and a wide array of live animals makes it easier for viruses to jump between species, she said.

Wet markets — open marketplaces with stalls selling fresh meat and fish — are considered a traditional form of food retail in large Asian cities.

What makes the markets particularly risky as coronavirus lingers is the Lunar New Year, a peak travel season for Chinese citizens. Shoppers will likely flock to wet markets to stock up on foodstuffs for holiday dishes and celebrations.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6441321/coronavirus-china-wet-markets/


----------------------

The Huanan Seafood Market where it all started

A 61-year-old man who was a regular shopper at the Huanan Seafood Market was the first person to die from the virus. Authorities had since shuttered the market where the outbreak of this virus is believed to have begun on January 1 and banned the trade of live animals at wet markets on Wuhan, China on Wednesday.

Before the Huanan market closed, vendors there sold processed meats and live animals, including chickens, donkeys, sheep, pigs, foxes, badgers, bamboo rats, hedgehogs, and snakes. The close proximity of shoppers to stall vendors and live and dead animals in wet markets make them prime breeding grounds for zoonotic diseases, which means they spread from animals to people.

These zoonotic diseases pose a pandemic risk as they are carried by viruses that have not been circulating in humans before, therefore specific immunity to these viruses are absent in humans.

Wet markets put people and live and dead animals in constant close contact making it easy for a virus to jump from animal to human.



Scientists around the globe are still working to understand the virus better, such as it’s origins and how contagious it is. Initially appeared to spread only by very close contact within a family such as hugging, kissing, or sharing eating utensils but now evidence show that more distant contact such as sneeze or cough could spread the virus.

https://cj.my/115844/wuhan-coronavirus-originated-from-market-that-sold-wildlife-illegally/

[raccoon]

67. Many thanks, Dennis. Nt

[KewlKat]

68. Thanks for the post