Nate Silver: Sometimes the election is won or lost at the conventions and this looks like it could

[highplainsdem]

be one of those years.


On Twitter, half an hour ago:

http://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/244612220347092992

[peacebird]

1. Not to seem dense, but why does he think that? And who does he see as winning?

[NRaleighLiberal]

2. check today's entry here

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/07/sept-7-polls-find-hints-of-obama-convention-bounce/

[Ellipsis]

7. Check out the now cast...

He hit 300 today

[NRaleighLiberal]

8. indeed!

[Kurovski]

3. And sometimes they are won or lost through rigged electronic voting.

NAHHHH! I'm kidding.

So leave me the hell alone.

[struggle4progress]

11. +

[Kurovski]

12. .

[gkhouston]

4. Oh, I think we could see the writing on the wall before the conventions.

The big fight is going to be over the House and the Senate.

[central scrutinizer]

5. that should add pressure to the debates

even a greater chance that Nitt will crack

[Brother Buzz]

14. My Magic 8-Ball® says:

Without a doubt

[craigmatic]

6. The only election lost at the convention in the modern era was 1972 McGovern.

Maybe you could put the republicans in 1992 in that colum too but it's a stretch.

[frazzled]

9. I think 1992 was very likely lost at the Republican convention

with Pat Buchanan's "culture wars" speech. It shocked the nation.

Writing twenty years after the convention, the New York Times wrote, "Supporters of Mr. Bush pointed to the tone of the convention as one of the reasons he lost re-election that November to Bill Clinton."

Well, that and the watch episode and the read my lips reversal. But the convention was the final twist of the knife.

[gkhouston]

10. Oh, I think 1968 was pretty memorable for the Dems, and not in a good way. n/t

[SIDURI]

13. Good lord, yes

That was a nasty experience even watching it from California, where I worked on the McCarthy campaign. A year+ later I was in a class where we watched a film with a lot of news footage of the convention and surrounding violence, and it still left me shaking and ill.

Hubert Humphrey never stood a chance after that convention, although we were all pretty much effed after Bobby Kennedy was assassinated anyway.

The country was sick of violence, and voted for clamping down....