BRILLIANT Psychology Today article on the psychology of COVID-19 panic.

[nolabear]

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/culture-mind-and-brain/202002/the-coronavirus-is-much-worse-you-think


Ask yourself the following: Would you feel confident taking an over-the-counter medication if you were 98 percent sure it would work safely? Would you dare to gamble all your savings in a one-off scheme in which you had a 98 percent chance of losing it all?

The coronavirus is a similar no-brainer. As a generic member of the human species, you have about the same odds of dying of the coronavirus as winning in the gambling scenario. These are overall rates, meaning that unless you are already in very poor health, are very old, or very young, the odds for you are nearly nil.

Why then are so many countries implementing quarantine measures, shutting down their borders, schools, and soccer games for something that is less likely to happen to anyone than drowning in a single year, or even being hit by lightning in one’s lifetime? Why is the stock-market crashing, and why are school and workplace mass emails, news headlines, social media feeds, and face-to-face conversations dominated by stories about what is essentially a new strand of mild to moderate flu?

Our minds like to jump to threatening headlines with big, alarming numbers. As this post was first aired, a total of 80,000 cases of COVID-19 had been reported in 40 countries. To put things in perspective again, this is a mere 0.0001% of the world population. In comparison, seasonal outbreaks of influenza make 3 to 5 million people sick enough to seek treatment worldwide (up to 0.06% of the population) while many more cases go undetected. The seasonal flu results in 290,000 to 650,000 deaths each year — up to 0.008% of the population.

To grasp the full — and very real — power of the coronavirus, we need to enter the rabbit hole of human psychology.

[BusyBeingBest]

1. As others are pointing out, it's not individual risk of catching, or dying of, the disease

that causes me alarm--it's the overwhelming of our medical system so that if I should experience an unrelated health problem in the coming weeks, I may not get a bed. I have a family member undergoing chemo right now, I worry for her. I have elderly parents, I worry for them. I worry about the economics of this, too.

[nolabear]

4. Oh I hear ya! Individuals have real cause to worry. This doesn't discount that.

It’s fascinating to think about the other “virus” that naturally accompanies this and infects us though.

[enki23]

6. It is foolish to think that, because you aren't likely to die, everything is fine.

And those mortality numbers assume access to a mostly-functioning, technologically advanced healthcare system. They get very much worse without one. At least ten percent of people with this require hospitalization, and many more will die if they don't get that, including the necessarily high standard of care.

[SWBTATTReg]

14. I think that you nailed probably a major, major concern, that others already suffering from...

other ailments (heart, stroke victims, and a vast number of other unlisted ailments) that there are only a limited number of medical beds, personnel, medicines, etc. available. China would (or Italy) be cases to study, perhaps to see where anticipated shortages can develop in the states here and start appropriate steps/actions to deal w/ anticipated shortages and head these serious issues off from developing into more serious problems.

Of course I am thinking that despite the incompetence of the rump administration, our medical community and the states too, are bypassing the rump administration totally to deal w/ the CV themselves. Thank god.

A truly sad situation that rump, w/ all of his 'I, alone, can handle it' attitude, his supposedly smarts and/or genius, etc. failed to grasp anything else beyond his ignorant politics. This is also a failure of rump's entire team and administration.

When someone is more concerned about the 'politics' of a thing/issue, when dealing w/ something like CV, and how it impacts his getting reelected vs. the well being of fellow Americans, especially those in urban areas where CV seems to be localized (makes sense, travel overseas does originate/terminate in these areas).

I wouldn't be surprised if rump mouthed off and said that we definitely need the wall (I think that he already did) to stop the spread of CV (or something to this effect), and / or such measures. His son has already mouthed off and said without evidence that democratic leaders wanted the CV to spread, to cause the downfall of the rump administration.

Ironic isn't it, that rump alone is, by his failures so far in dealing effectively w/ the CV, has already done far more damage to his brand than anyone else could. Pointing fingers as he's done won't work and blaming others won't work for rump was wholesaling the shutdown of all things related to Obama (for no reason other than the fact that Obama was involved).

I'd like to know the answer now, from Moscow Mitch if there are still any outstanding legislation matters before the Senate dealing w/ medical matters, and why (there are over 300+ bills from the House)? Why is this clearly incompetent administration and the failed republicans in the Senate allowed to remain in office?

Perhaps a big part of it is that (1) the regular people of this country truly don't matter to these scumbags and (2(2) that they are all into profit and loss statements, and nothing else. They listen to only those who whip out their checkbooks the fastest.

[BusyBeingBest]

15. It's ridiculous to imagine that anyone still listens to Dumbass Donnie or anyone

in his politically-appointed crew of morons on any aspect of this crisis--I'd like to think most responsible politicians and public health officials are not looking for direction from him but rather from CDC and health departments and universities. The best thing for the media to do for public health and safety is to stop covering his appearances and his misinformed statements. We simply don't have a President, stop pretending he is one.

[SWBTATTReg]

18. You nailed it! nt

[customerserviceguy]

21. True

Even his own MAGAt's know he's completely full of shit when it comes to anything involving science. The only reason they support him is that he drives us nuts.

[flamingdem]

2. It's because we don't have anything like the flu shot for this

and the estimates of those who will perish run in the millions. Also it's obvious we don't have enough test kits and enough ventilators. Entire clusters of people have died very quickly including medical professionals.

This is not the flu and people need to overreact to buy time to get things in order and the tRump admin is incompetent on top of that.

[nolabear]

5. Indeed. The threat is real and we don't know what it actually is.

That’s the point, what we do when we don’t know. A literal emotional treatment based on fact, trust in those facts, and reassurance would help us a great deal.

[misanthrope]

3. This should be pinned at the top of the page

Lots of examples everywhere.

[lapfog_1]

7. Psychologists?

First off. the very young are almost not at risk of bad outcomes from this virus... up until late Feb, no children under the age of 10 have died from Covid-19... including all of China.

The fatality rate averaged across the population is 20x to 30x that of the flu, and could be even higher than that number. In population of people over 60 with some pre-existing conditions (especially lung issues) the fatality rate is 15%. Now if you were in that population (like me), do you really want to start placing bets at the casino?

Almost ALL epidemiologists expect this virus to come in "waves" over the next year or two... and that it could (and probably will) infect 40 percent of the worlds population.

It will likely (and has in some locations already) overwhelm our ability to deal with the more serious cases (See "China builds 1000 bed hospital in 10 days" and other such stories).

Panic... no... prepare as much as we can to slow it down while we wait a year for a vaccine, yes.

[defacto7]

9. Ditto

[nolabear]

12. This has to do with how interesting the psychological factors are.

I’m not promoting any kind of denial. It is quite good at drawing lines between natural fears and lack of actual data.

[lapfog_1]

16. If this was an article about panic over being struck by lightning

"The coronavirus is a similar no-brainer. As a generic member of the human species, you have about the same odds of dying of the coronavirus as winning in the gambling scenario. These are overall rates, meaning that unless you are already in very poor health, are very old, or very young, the odds for you are nearly nil."

No, this statement is factually wrong. Left to run rampant throughout the human population, you odds of DYING from it are actually quite high (at least 1/50) unless you are under the age of 20 and in pretty good to perfect health.

Also, unlike the flu that affects the very young and the elderly, this only severely affects adults (over 20) and is progressively worse the older and poorer in health you are.

Left to run rampant in our population (if we did nothing to slow it down), doctors predict it will infect 40% to 60% of the worlds population.

we have no immunity and no treatment and no vaccine.

7Billion x .4 x .02 is 56,000,000 people dying from this. 56M or about 1/6th of the population of the US.

I am not panicking, but I am prepared to self isolate (and I suggest everyone else who can should as well) and THIS is why the stock market is crashing. Due to very real expectations that people will stop buying stuff and doing stuff.

[customerserviceguy]

22. I found it amusing

that the article in the OP likened one's chance of dying from this to that of drowning or being hit by lightning. I dismissed it at that point.

[nolabear]

10. Fine. Nothing depends on you being interested in the actual point.

[defacto7]

11. I am interested. And you are correct, nothing depends on me being anything.

[gristy]

13. The author clearly has no real understanding of epidemiology

Note that this is published on a blog at Psychology Today. Little if no editorial control, I suspect...

[femmedem]

17. If there was a 2% chance of dying in a car accident if I went to the grocery store, I'd stay home.

Would you let your child eat something that only killed 2% of the people who ingested it? Would you take your parents to see a movie if you knew a visit to a cinema had a 2% risk of killing them?

It's one thing to talk about gambling one's life savings, or about taking a medicine which has a 98% chance of helping you. You weigh the benefits and the risks. But when the risk is death, and the benefit is just being able to carry on as you always have--working, shopping, going to public events--well, then 2% or 4% fatality scares reasonable people.

That doesn't even take into account the higher risk of being hospitalized with, albeit surviving, the illness, with weeks of suffering and lost income, and bankruptcy for the uninsured or underinsured.

[moonscape]

20. This is absolutely true, and as someone who has been on

the wrong end of medical statistics several times (eg there is only a <1% chance! - in one of them), I have great respect for the reality of what 2% can mean.

[lostnfound]

19. Such a selfish stupid perspective the author has, as if all that matters is oneself

If the chances are high that you’ll get it, the chances are also high you’ll give it to others.

If you pass it to your two parents who are over 80, the chances that at least one of them will die after catching it is 28%. (85% chance of one surviving x 85% of the other surviving = 72% chance of both surviving). Gather for a funeral or for a holiday dinner and expose four such 80-year olds to the virus, or else the first two share dinner with their equally old friends, and the probability that at least one of the four will die is 50%.

The chances that at least 1 out of the 4 will end up in the ICU fighting for their lives is almost 70%. And the chances that you spread it to them is very high.

[pat_k]

23. It's not irrational panic: Measures to prevent COVID 19 from becoming endemic are vital

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213048575

[Nitram]

24. Humans are very poor at risk assessment.