Coronavirus infections in US last night were at 428 and are now already up to 515

[Quixote1818]

By tonight it will likely have grown by over 100 in just one day. It took two months to get to 400 and only a day to add almost 25% to that total. So it seems to be accelerating in the US.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[LisaL]

1. Well, we are just starting testing.

There are likely lots more that haven't been tested yet.

[AlexSFCA]

2. sounds like Italy and we haven't learned from them

[hedda_foil]

14. We've already passed Italy.

[bdamomma]

3. And we have a sick SOB

in the WH, who is putting so many Americans at risk. WTF.

[wishstar]

4. The nursing home in Washington state still hasn't even tested all of the people exposed there

I just read about the latest 2 deaths there just reported this afternoon and report said that nursing home still doesn't have enough test kits for everyone who was exposed at that facility.

[zackymilly]

13. The infected man in Wake Forest, NC visited someone in that nursing home and brought it back to NC.

My son had business around the same time in Seattle, and came back the same day this man did.
Luckily, he found out he wasn't on the same plane.
We now have a 2nd case here of someone who contracted it in Italy.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

5. This increase may be because tests are becoming more available, finally,

so we are seeing more accurate numbers.

[Crunchy Frog]

6. It's just because of increased testing.

My best guess is that there are already thousands of infections, and it will be some time before testing catches up to the real numbers, if ever.

[Quixote1818]

7. Did the news report the delivery of a bunch of new test kits today? nt

[captain queeg]

8. 521 a minute ago

We are so far behind on testing and the orange corpusel keep trying to hide the numbers. It would be funny if it wasn’t. Or like Colbert used to say: it’s funny, because it’s treason. I’d certainly say his actions would fall under treasonous.

[Quixote1818]

9. Just jumped to 534 nt

[USALiberal]

10. It was 438 EOD yesterday, went up 119 yesterday. nt

[Dem2]

11. Look at the numbers for the top 12 or so countries

Not including China. Ranging from 20-35+% growth in one day.

[Ms. Toad]

12. That's the way exponential growth works.

There were 117 new cases yesterday, taking the total from 318 at the start of the day (GMT +0) to 435 24 hours later. That's an increase of 37%.

A perfect growth at the rate between yesterday and today would have been:

1 (February 16 @ GMT + 0), 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 12, 14, 19, 26, 35, 48, 66, 90, 123, 169, 232, 317, 435, 596 (by GMT + 0 today)

Obviously in the early stages the prediction will be less precise because it depends on how contagious a single person in - rather than how contagious this disease is (on average), as well as incubation and how social a very few people are.

I would expect the growth to be steadier now that there is a larger population of infected people.

So - if the increase holds steady, starting with today's predicted number, that would mean roughly 5400 confirmed cases by next weekend, 49,000 by the following weekend.

The growth rate may slow. It may take a temporary jump as testing kits are deployed then slow because the population generating the growth is more accurate.

But yes - anytime a person infects more than one other person, the growth accelerates exponentially because you are not just adding the same number of new sick people each day the number tomorrow is tied to the number today (not to the number of periods since the infection started).

In other words, with a linear growth there were 21 days between the start of my exponential list - and only an increase of 1 patient per day - meaning that confirmed patients on day 21 = confirmed patients on day 1 + 20 * 1 = 22 patients.

Here, each new day is a multiple of 1.37 (using today's number) of the previous day. So in 21 days it is 1 x 1.37^20 = 545 patients.

[captain queeg]

16. I think those are false numbers

I have a hunch it is much less. Many many people I’ve talked to say so. People are always asking me how I know so much. I guess I just have a knack for it. I’m related to someone smart. I have perfect numbers, the best numbers.

[Ms. Toad]

18. Ok, drumph. Who gave you the secret key to DU?

[Quixote1818]

19. Thanks for the number crunching. nt

[Quixote1818]

20. If it's up to 50,000 in two weeks it may start to be pretty crazy with many school closures

stock market tanking even more, NCAA tournament postponed etc. etc. etc.

Thoughts?

[Ms. Toad]

21. I think it's going to be crazy.

All school-sponsored international travel at my school has been banned through May 31. I've also been ordered to prepare a teach-out plan for the rest of the semester in case we have to close the campus. (And I'm in one of the 17 states with no cases, so far). I would not be surprised to see NCAA cancelled. I'm betting there are behind the scenes conversations about it - since it is college related, and Friday seemed to be the wake-up call for colleges and universities. (Oh - lookie here: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/sports/ncaabasketball/ncaa-march-madness-coronavirus.html)

I've just been ramping up my personal precautions - but I started to look in my cupboard ot see what we have that could keep us for a month or so if our ability to go out was limited. We've got plenty of meat in the freezer that needs to be eaten. Lots of beans. Short on frozen/canned veggies. Might need more cat litter and food.Got plenty of TP.

My daughter's store just closed (EarthFare), and she picked up a new job at Starbucks (six days ago) - which depends very intensely on people being out and about. From anything I can tell they are an excellent employer so I think they will carry staff as long as possible (and do things like credit new employees for working even if they are prohibited from physically working to meet the requirements for health health insurance). But - her pay cut (close to $2 an hour) and hours cut (15 hours a week less) mean money will be very tight if she cannot work. Mom is likely to be helping out in the short term.

I've told her to close her eyes to the stock market (and when she was fretting about her $700 loss in her 401(k). She's never checked it - but learned just before her last day of EarthFare work that she had $10,000. I showed her my $20,000 loss - and then compared it to a year ago, and then to 5 years ago to show her the effect of leaving it in over time and riding out corrections in the stock market). I'm 8 years of retirement - unless I bail early, so I should probably be more worried - she's on the early end of adulting so she has plenty of time to just let it sit there.

My parents are in a retirement community - I worry about them. They are in their late 80s.

Bottom line, I think it will be very ugly in the short run.

[GemDigger]

15. 537 now.

[uponit7771]

17. It took 5 weeks for Italy to quarantine 25% of its population starting from 2 cases of CV19