Gallup -Obama -49% -Romney 44%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

[Submariner]

1. from Bartcop

[speedoo]

2. Romney is finished.

Obama and the dems are burying him.

[grantcart]

3. The key to all of the polls is that they share one thing

Romney never gets past 44/45

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Why Did The Approve/Disapprove Numbers Go From +10 to +6

Did a big night drop out?

[fugop]

10. 3-day on the approval

With the 3-day approval, Wednesday would have dropped out, right? SO that was pre-CLinton, but we added Saturday, the day after the jobs report numbers. Maybe dampened things a bit. But the 7-day still looks good! You have to figure that 3-day is going to be pretty volatile post-convention.

[grantcart]

12. Probably

I don't think that the President's positive is a very important metric. I explain why in this post.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/11025843

[morningfog]

6. A challenger who can't break that and has never had an actual lead

doesn't really have a chance to change it with 2 only two months to go.

I know people don't like it when you "get cocky", but the only remaining question in my mind is the margin of Obama's victory and the make up of the Congress.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. My Guess Is 51% Obama 48% Romney 1% Scattered

Probanbly around 300-240 in the EC.

I think we lose some states we won last time.

[grantcart]

13. Obama 53 Romney 45 Johnson 2

EV 320

We could go up in EV if Romney makes conservatives angry enough to send a message with Johnson.

I am guessing that 'none of the above' in Nevada has just taken that state out of the mix for Romney as ron Paul supporters will rush to make a symbolic vote.

[morningfog]

4. Nate Silver says for Obama to have opened that much up with only

one day of post-convention polling included, that Obama must be up about 9 points post-convention. Not a bounce, but a true favorite. It will be nearly impossible for Mitt to close that gap by election day, barring an unforeseen national emergency.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. In A Nat'l Emergency Voters Will Rally Around The Pres

.

[morningfog]

8. I agree, to a point.

That is the usual response for a national emergency. However, a major market crash could hurt Obama, like in 2008. There is also the possibility that a foreign emergency could hurt him. Although, I find that unlikely because Obama has handled those types of emergencies effectively, with little flare.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. A Bad Day On The Market, Maybe

But in any nat'l emergency you know Obama is going to come down hard.

[tavernier]

14. Why; what have you heard?

With Rove and Cheney still lurking around, I always anticipate some kind of mischief.