Rachel Maddow: "If you read one thing today, read this": 👀

[Dennis Donovan]

Link to tweet

Rachel Maddow MSNBC ✔@maddow

If you read one thing today, read this:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-cancel-everything/607675/ …
Cancel Everything
Social distancing is the only way to stop the coronavirus. We must start immediately.

10:32 AM - Mar 10, 2020

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-cancel-everything/607675/

Cancel Everything
Social distancing is the only way to stop the coronavirus. We must start immediately.

We don’t yet know the full ramifications of the novel coronavirus. But three crucial facts have become clear in the first months of this extraordinary global event. And what they add up to is not an invocation to stay calm, as so many politicians around the globe are incessantly suggesting; it is, on the contrary, the case for changing our behavior in radical ways—right now.

The first fact is that, at least in the initial stages, documented cases of COVID-19 seem to increase in exponential fashion. On the 23rd of January, China’s Hubei province, which contains the city of Wuhan, had 444 confirmed COVID-19 cases. A week later, by the 30th of January, it had 4,903 cases. Another week later, by the 6th of February, it had 22,112.

The same story is now playing out in other countries around the world. Italy had 62 identified cases of COVID-19 on the 22nd of February. It had 888 cases by the 29th of February, and 4,636 by the 6th of March.

Because the United States has been extremely sluggish in testing patients for the coronavirus, the official tally of 604 likely represents a fraction of the real case load. But even if we take this number at face value, it suggests that we should prepare to have up to 10 times as many cases a week from today, and up to 100 times as many cases two weeks from today.

</snip>

[Aristus]

1. I'd love to, but I'm a medical provider. Unless I'm sick, I have to show up for those who are.

I just sent a request to the Medical Director for coronavirus testing kits.

[safeinOhio]

4. Thanks to all providers. I'll do my best

to you guys out.

[Dennis Donovan]

5. They're referring to events like concerts, conventions, anything where attendance isn't mandatory

I'm glad NYS is taking steps in New Rochelle to mitigate addl spread of the virus.

[lagomorph777]

12. I'm working from home starting tomorrow.

I am one of the lucky ones who can.

[MarcA]

27. Actually, the author of the article, a Johns Hopkins prof, Is referring to other things

including businesses, government offices and schools. Not everything in these
can be done online.

[Dennis Donovan]

28. Basically, what can be done from home, do it from home

Govt offices could close since most of their services are online.

Higher education institutions are stepping up with transitioning to online and teleclassroom capabilities.

Despite all of this, it's going to be disruptive, unfortunately. Staying home isn't an option for anyone in the service industry, except call centers, etc.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

14. It's for people like you that the rest of us should have been tested and isolated.

[tblue37]

15. You should also be provided with PPE, but of course there aren't enough to go around,

so that won't happen.

[Aristus]

18. Nope. Got plenty.

Masks, gowns, gloves, goggles, face shields. We're okay there.

[tblue37]

19. Glad to hear that! nt

[coti]

2. It's not going to be stopped.

I think we need to consider exactly how far we're willing to take shutting our society down because of this virus.

[Dennis Donovan]

3. It's not about stopping it; it's about mitigation

...and we'd better be prepared to make tough decisions shortly (as in the next week).

[coti]

6. "Mitigation" in what sense? What I mean by "it's not going to be stopped"

is that the majority of the people in the world, over the following months/year or two, are going to be exposed to this virus, and there's nothing that can be done to stop that. It's gone past the tipping point of being controllable.

[Dennis Donovan]

7. Mitigation is to keep hospitals from being overrun like in Italy right now.

Yes, this is aggressive and extremely contagious, and will likely strike us all. But we don't want it happening all at once because it will cripple the health care system in the US.

[tblue37]

16. +1. nt

[Pacifist Patriot]

17. If you can at all slow the rate of transmission, it helps alleviate the strain on the system.

Last edited Tue Mar 10, 2020, 08:05 PM - Edit history (1)

Think in terms of beds. If we can get patients treated and released before the next patient comes in, we're fine. If we have three new patients admitted before someone gets released, we're screwed. Now extrapolate that to everything needed to care for critical patients.

No, it can't be stopped. But social distancing can slow it down.

[coti]

21. I think you have to consider exactly what measures are being proposed,

the protocol/standards used, the impact isolating measures will have on quality of life and the long-term economy, and how long such measures should be employed.

There is a definite balance to be struck or we risk doing more damage in our response than the virus itself will do. "Cancel everything" is not the approach I would take.

[Tumbulu]

29. for the 90% who present as a cold, that will be fine

but the 10% that require hospitalization and ventilation, then there are only so many beds and so many ventilators. The idea is to slow the spread so that the 10% get treated and live. If they cannot be treated, they die. So, as it spreads all over the globe, if the spread is slowed down there will be a better chance that those requiring hospitalization will survive.

That is the reason we all must stop going to crowded places and events. As much as possible.

[Ms. Toad]

34. But it can be slowed.

If it is not slowed, we will run out of hospital beds, the equipment needed for long-term intubation, and medical personnel by mid to late May.

If we slow it, there will be resources to go around because those who need it will be spread out over time. Search flattening the curve.

[BadGimp]

8. Ok, now I'm worried...

The global economic downturn we will see if this really scales is hard to fathom. But it will be severly painful and highly disruptive.

[we can do it]

30. Money is not more important than protecting life.

[JudyM]

37. Not to make you feel worse, but near-definite reality is that there is no "if," unfortunately.

Based on the epidemiology we have seen in other countries, we are in it now. We are unable to control it now, we can only try to mitigate it by social distancing, respiratory hygiene and hand washing, etc.

[Pantagruel]

9. The lag in testing

"The first fact is that, at least in the initial stages, documented cases of COVID-19 seem to increase in exponential fashion. "

accounts for the jump in documentation. Shutting down everything may be overreaction. JMHO.

[Dennis Donovan]

10. If it's an overreaction, the experts agree with overreacting.

I'm going to follow their advice.

[Pantagruel]

11. Reasonable precautions, of course

but "the case for changing our behavior in radical ways—right now." this could be seen as shutting down everything in its ultimate form. I submit, the consequences of the "cure" may be worse than the disease. Massive job losses could trigger health care loss, jumps in crime/ mental health etc.-all with tragic consequences that could outstrip coronavirus losses.
Frankly,it may already be baked in the economic cake.

[CaptYossarian]

13. Part of your post could lead to Medicare For All.

Wouldn't that be a shame?

And it turns out that a ridiculous wall wouldn't have saved 'Murikkka' after all.

Goodbye, Donnie. It was fun watching your liddle 4-year hissy fit make you the worst president in history.

Now disappear like a more intelligent Dan Quayle did.

[MarcA]

23. Agreed. Proceed with reasoned caution.

No need to kill the village in order to save it.

[Duppers]

38. Guess that'd be one way of getting rid of the old

And vulnerable people.


Here's how " in Singapore, for example, the government quickly canceled public events and
installed medical stations to measure the body temperature of passersby while private companies handed out free hand sanitizer.

As a result, the number of cases has grown much more slowly than in nearby countries.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-cancel-everything/607675/


Simple things such as taking temperatures and supplying and using hand sanitizer saves lives. Anyone with a fever should be tested and quarantined. These policies should be required.

[world wide wally]

20. Quick math quiz:

If the number of victims doubles every three days, how long do we have once half the population is infected?

In the immortal words of John Cameron Swayze, "We are never more than 4 days from total anarchy"

[coti]

22. About six weeks

assuming doubling every 3 days.

[world wide wally]

24. But once it hits "half" the population, the next step is all of them

[bucolic_frolic]

25. Why are Italian death rates so much higher?

Diet? Genetics? Heredity? I'm thinking olive oil and cheeses, two things not so prevalent in China. I'm thinking genetics, perhaps Asians have had ancestors of this disease for centuries but it's new to caucasian populations.

As for the suggestions in the article - playing sporting events to an empty stadium? All well and good, but what about the athletes? They're breathing on each other.

[Dennis Donovan]

26. Smoking is more prevalent there than here?

I think I'm basing that on the one Fellini movie I've ever seen, though.

[Pacifist Patriot]

31. Italy has the second highest average age of any country...

Japan has the highest.

It could possibly be that simple. Mortality rates vary by demographic. Overall mortality rate is only part of the picture.

For example SARS mortality rate for people under 24 was 0%.

You have to evaluate by demographic, and even that has degrees of uncertainty and overlap. Demographics can be categorized infinite ways.

Add in the low testing rates and the fact that we are in the midst of an unfolding fluid event rather than having the benefit of post-event hindsight full data analysis.

In other words, we don't know shit yet.

[cwydro]

33. Age. Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world.

I think the average age of the cases there was 81.

I have to admit that I thought they were a pretty healthy people, especially compared to us. Diet, red wine...all of that.

[LisaL]

35. They probably are healthy, which is why they are making it to the ripe old age.

But their medical system is completely overwhelmed, so they are not getting treatment they need, and so after making it to the ripe old age, covid is killing them.

[cwydro]

36. Yes, spot on.

Tragically so.

Damn. And still the fucker fiddles.

[cwydro]

32. I'm retired, lucky enough to not have to work.

But before all this horror started, I decided to get a part time job with our county. And did, with no problem.

So every day that I’m scheduled to work (usually two or three), I go in to help with these vulnerable senior adults, and also the developmentally disabled.

I’ll be going in to do so until they say we can’t. So far, our county is free of cases. I’m not stupid enough to think the virus isn’t already here.

But “social distancing” is easier said than done.