The coming recession

[captain queeg]

I have no doubt we are moving into a recession. It made me remember the old adage going around during the early 80s recession: a recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose yours. It’s all a matter of perspective. I’m old enough to have lived thru a few downturns. The early 80s were rough for me. Fairly young and new to the work force. I had a hard time finding a steady job back then. Even when I had a supposed full time job, there were times when our hours got cut. Laid off a couple times too. Went thru several jobs. It inspired me to go back to school. That’s where I was in 89 so although we talked a lot about the crash it didn’t really affect what I was doing. By the time I got out of school things were a little better and though it took awhile I got a job and had steady work. The banking crises of 2006 or 2008 or so didn't really hit me personally though I knew many who lost their jobs or got their hours cut.

It sure feels like we are heading into one now. Personally I think we are overdue. I just retired last year and am living pretty cheaply. I shouldn’t have any trouble for awhile but I think many will suffer and the fact the the rethugs put everything into enriching the 1% I don’t think we’ll have the tools to bounce back for awhile. Retirees will suffer too if our 401ks tank. And the pandemic is a wild card, hard to say where it’ll all go, but I think 2020 will go down in the history books. Not to be gloomy; if by some chance the virus gets under control soon we might bounce back quicker. But right now I don’t see that happening.

[CousinIT]

1. Not coming. It's HERE. n/t

[Wellstone ruled]

2. Started last October.

when the Yield Curve inverted and the Fed opened the Repo Window. Yes we had a major up swing in December and early January,and it has been downhill since.

[uponit7771]

5. +1, the repo window was our first and loudest warning!! The one month long down swing in 30 yr T

... was the second and then shit is hitting the fan hard.

If we don't bounce off of 20k into a straight line things are going to get bad ... really bad.

[Wellstone ruled]

6. One day greatest loss of Value since the October crash of 1929.

We are all going to take on hell of a finical beating to our IRA's and 401's. And we thought Lehemns was ugly. The Orange Anus has virtually out did Hoover and his stupidity is only begun.

[uponit7771]

7. +1, True Hoover was a cultist on policy Red Don doesn't want to take steps that would acknowlege

... the economy isn't strong.

We're in a structural issue now because of spending will slow down and GDP expectations world wide are going to be off for a while until CV19 is controlled

[Wellstone ruled]

8. Had to run a errand today

at the local Wally Mutt,not many folks in that store and it is Payday for most of the Valley. So,thought I would cruse a few Retail Areas just for the haha's. Outside of the Costco Lot all the rest were really empty. So it began. People are not spending they are now hunkering down knowing the Layoffs are going to hit the Hospitality Industry Sunday with most likely several Thousand will be idled.

Here in Vegas,11 Strip Buffets close as of Saturday Evening for a undetermined time. The Domino effect will be in the Thousands.

[uponit7771]

10. Whoa, didn't think about Vegas ... hope this Wuhan quarantine works. We're screwed if it doesn't

... and we have to wait for a vaccine and anti virus.

[Wellstone ruled]

11. The projections are

not favorable economically for the Hospitality people. Sounds like a ton of Air Travelers coming in for the week end canceled. And you will never get a honest answer from our Visitor Bureau. Tourism is our game and you just know you will only here to positive. Do remember 2008 when the market took a dump,the real truth on the Tourism Business here did not leak out until Realtor's started bitching about all the Foreclosures.

[Zoonart]

3. My husband and I lost our business in 1989.

We reinvented ourselves and moved for work. In 2008, my husband had his salary cut by 30%; it was take it or leave. We fought back while taking care of ailing parents. In 2017 we came into a modest inheritance and finally thought we could exhale... now are watching it go out the window. So not our first rodeo. We know how to do this.

[uponit7771]

4. K&R, like 2008 this is structural because of ... PLANET WIDE ... falling GDPs due to CV. Top 10 GDPs

... around the world are going to go into work stoppage for 2 weeks if Wuhan quarantine works.

[A HERETIC I AM]

9. Perhaps a better analogy; A recession is when an economy is brought to its knees...

A depression is when an economy is flat on its back and cant get up.

It should be well remembered that before the advent of the Federal Reserve, economic depressions occurred with regularity, but tended to be localized. The frequency of that condition was exacerbated by the fiscal seclusion of individual banks. If the Bank of West Bumfuck happened to go under due to bad practices or malfeasance, there was no backstop or any guarantee depositors would or could be made whole. If the only bank for miles and miles went belly up, everyone that did business there was fucked.

It is important to note that the first major test of the Federal Reserve System - The Great Depression, was a failure, but the second one however, was a success. That being the Great Recession of ‘08 in which not one single depositor in any bank lost one single red cent due to bank failure.

Not one.