A FOX News Panel Said The House Might Be In Play

[DemocratSinceBirth]

It was a panel of John LeBoutillier, Doug Schoen, and Pat Caddell. I was expecting them to spin the bad polls for Romney but they said Romney and the Republican brand is in crisis.


Schoen said Romney needs to pull a inside straight to win.

LeBoutillier said the debates won't change a thing.

[tjwash]

1. Or they need the dealer to toss them 2 aces off of the bottom of the deck

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. I Was Surprised

.

[elleng]

2. IF ONLY!

Contribute, ALL, to these!!!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=88984

[ck4829]

4. I think LeBoutillier is right

People know who Obama is and they know who Romney is. People know Obama's made some mistakes, but they also know he is facing an obstructionist Republican Congress that is willing to stonewall this country back to the 1700's if it means he won't get reelected. We should remember that as well.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Kerry Used Bush* As A Punching Bag In Two Of The Three Debates And Still Lost

.

[railsback]

11. Kerry actually won

but was stolen by Ken Blackwell in Ohio, who locked up and destroyed all the ballots before they could be recounted.

[WCGreen]

27. That may be true, but the reality is Bush sat in the White House for 4 more years...

Get over it and focus on what is happening now...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. I Think The Larger Point Is Debates Are Overrated

Bush* was reduced to babbling that "being president is hard" and "do you want to buy some wood" and still won.

[WCGreen]

37. Especially when running against an incumbent.

[2pooped2pop]

38. that's true and thanks for keeping it on the front burner

because as long as they have the ability to flip the votes in the modems, we do not live in a democracy.

So please don't "get over it"

[n2doc]

41. If he had carried other states it would not have been an issue

Just like 2000. Obama cannot let it get that close.

[karynnj]

29. They are what made it close

Models based on Bush's approval rating and the economy predicted an easy Bush win against a generic Democrat. This was without considering the affect of people traumatized by 911, terrorized by faux terror alerts, and the natural rallying around a President when we are at war. It also ignored a very biased media that allowed a character assassination of both John and Teresa Kerry and ignored the fact that some conservative parts of the Catholic church mobalized because he would replace at least on conservative SCJ. It ignored the 23 states with anti gay referendums.

With all that, they still needed to suppress the vote in Ohio to win.

It was those debates that made it close - Kerry was exceptional in them - and if more people had had the chance to really see him and Teresa for the people they are rather than caricatures the RW created, it would have been a huge upset victory.

[Politicalboi]

6. If there are debates

Believe me, things will change. Only they will change for the worst for Rmoney.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. If I'm Obama I Am As Affable As Possible

Romney is not likeable.

[Vincardog]

8. The House should be in play. Every aware American can see that the Rabid RW has control of the GOP

The only hope for our country is an immediate unmistakable hard turn to the left.

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. Been in play since February

According to Leader Pelosi at the California Democratic Convention. This tells me they are really in trouble.

[cynatnite]

10. I've heard it from a few Dems, but I'm not holding my breath...

http://atr.rollcall.com/steve-israel-says-house-remains-in-play/

I hope I'm wrong and we win the house.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. It Seems A Bit Far Fetched.

But if Romney falters badly the RNC will shift their money to House and Senate races as will the independent packs.

[leeroysphitz]

28. I also hope you are wrong.

[unblock]

13. this is nothing but a right-wing gotv scare tactic.

[nadinbrzezinski]

16. No, unless Leader Pelosi is a Republican

CALIFORNIA IS “BATTLEFIELD” STATE, LOCAL CONGRESSIONAL RACE AMONG KEY TARGETED DISTRICTS FOR DEMOCRATS, EX-SPEAKER PELOSI ANNOUNCES IN SAN DIEGO


Story and photo by Nadin Abbott

February 12, 2012 (San Diego) – Declaring it time to “regain control of the people’s House from the special interests,” California Democratic Party Chairman hosted a joint press conference with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in San Diego, site of the 2012 California Democratic Convention themed “Battleground California.”

Democrats’ hopes to pick up 25 Congressional seats in the 2012 elections include three seats in California—one of which is the newly redrawn 52nd Congressional District (formerly the 50th district) currently held by Republican Brian Bilbray.

Two well-known Democrats are vying for the nomination: Lori Saldaña, former Assemblywoman and past Associate Dean at Mesa College, and Scott Peters, former San Diego City Council president and Port director.

http://www.eastcountymagazine.org/node/8694

What is significant is that a FOX pannel concluded this. That is what is significant. The House is in play, really depends on retaking districts, like the 52nd which is one of my beats.

Saldana did not make it to the top of the ballot, so it is Scott Peters (D) versus Brian Bilbray (R), and Bilbray is an embattled incumbent.

They are counting on races like this one.



This has been the reality since at least February.

[unblock]

17. well i suppose two can play at that game.

yes, pelosi has a gotv interest similar to what foxnews does, each playing to their respective constituency.

the house is only "in play" if you consider, imho, about a 3% chance to be "in play".

btw, is that you in the byline?

[nadinbrzezinski]

20. yes

Here are the reasons why by the way.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021308627

I did not post that just willy nilly.

Oh and for Cali it is three districts in particular that are in play, and have not been in play in decades.

[unblock]

21. well intrade does have our chances at 9.6%, so, more optimistic than i am....

but realistically, i don't see obama winning by a big enough margin, with big enough coattails, to make it happen.

though frankly, the ONLY thing that will have an impact is if we (a) win the house, (b) keep the senate and (c) severely limit filibuster rules.

any scenario that give us (a) surely gives us (b) as well, and there has been talk of (c), though there has been talk of that before.

it would certainly be a VERY interesting second term if all this were to happen!

[nadinbrzezinski]

23. Just from following individual house races

(and Judge races, don't ask), I give it a better chance than that. Intrade is not taking into account the very real anger at the do nothing congress.

I know the logic, every incumbent has to go, well except mine... but first termers are not in good shape, the tea party kind.

This election will tell the story, but I think the Tea Party wave has really crested. They sound great, but once they get into power, they are a disaster.

[unblock]

25. well i certainly would be happy to be proved wrong on this one!

[BlueStreak]

14. Medicare is the key to taking back the House

So far, Obama and Biden have basically given Romney and Ryan a free ride on the horrific plan they are planning to drop on America. Just calling in "Vouchercare" and then changing the subject doesn't get it done. They need to make a real focus, and stick the House Republicans with it.

See discussion here.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=90910

[Archae]

15. John LeBoutillier?

The "Counter-Clinton Library" con man?

[Aerows]

18. God I hope we take it back

If this group of John Boehner led idiots takes it again, we are screwed, and I think even Republicans can agree with that. They just hate Nancy Pelosi more, which tells me she is a far better leader than this clueless, wandering in the wild with no direction dummy. She provides a venue of hate for them, at least, because she has principles. Boehner has the principles of a slime eating bacteria.

Last I knew, Nancy Pelosi stood for people that didn't have every advantage on their side. John Boenher NEEDS everyone with every advantage on just HIS side.

[nanabugg]

19. Remember when Rush told his listeners that during the debates they should paste a sign on their TV

under Bill Clinton? The sign was to be "LIAR" Well folks in preparation for the debates coming up a few "LIAR" signs under Mitt would be most appropriate. Send them to your RW family and friends and tell them to paste them under Romney on their TV just to remind them of what kind of person they are voting for.

[Panasonic]

22. Expect the Republicans to lose nearly 75% of their seats in 2012.

A massive loss will not bode well for the Republicans or the Tea Party.

It is a means to an end of their obstruction.

[GreenPartyVoter]

24. On what do you base this prediction?

[Panasonic]

39. People who see their wallet empty

and know that it's the Republicans not letting JOBS Act pass.

It is the stimulus that Americans needs, and the Rethugs knows it.

[GreenPartyVoter]

40. Do people see the obstructionism, though? It's rarely referred to as that by the media. Also, many

conservatives see taxes and social programs as the drain on their wallet.

[Warren DeMontague]

26. I might even tune in to watch them, if that happens.

Just to see them wet themselves.

[morningfog]

31. Dems holding the WH and Senate while picking up the House would be a FAUX dream.

Dem control of all three would be a ratings boon for FAUX. It is times like that when Limbaughs and Hannitys make the most money and bring in the most viewers.

They would be wetting themselves with glee. And of course the requisite dose of poutrage.

[Warren DeMontague]

35. I guess thats just a price I will have to be willing to pay, then.

[morningfog]

36. Indeed. It will be priceless, nonetheless. I will enjoy seeing

the politicians who lose and the mindless sheep who buy into republicanism crying about it.

[morningfog]

30. They are coming to admit publicly what amounts to a concession of the WH.

All eyes are about to turn from the presidential race to the House.

[pokerfan]

33. That's not too far off

An inside straight draw on the flop (4 outs) is about 16.5% to catch by the River and today's fivethirtyeight blog has Mittens chances as 20.2%.

[AnnaLee]

34. I don't think I will start believing them now.

[ejbr]

42. I don't believe them...

then again, I reflexively do not believe ANYTHING on Fox.