Why are the cancellations of events, etc for only 2-3 weeks?

[BigmanPigman]

Will it magically be over and have run its course by than or is this wishful thinking by the US? What is the theory behind choosing these dates?

[madaboutharry]

1. It's just the beginning.

The timelines will keep getting extended. The magical thinking won’t change reality.

[rzemanfl]

2. What you said. n/t

[Dennis Donovan]

5. Dr Fauci said maybe 8 weeks until it peaks?

I'm good for just under 3, but then I have to go out again.

[Cousin Dupree]

3. Because we hope it will be over soon. But it won't. Human nature. Wishful thinking. Call it what

you want. Deep down we know the truth.

[Flaleftist]

4. They don't want to cause too much panic. They may very well be extended.

We have never dealt with something like this before.

[Cosmocat]

6. Buying time

nm

[duforsure]

7. I think that's a start

And will be extended if needed. They don't know what's coming next after they finally get testing available . and if trump hasn't corrupted the testing results to hide how bad it shows he's done . They don't know either when they'll have an adequate supply of testing kits, which could still be many weeks away. Something they failed at having these ready , they now want to claim is others fault, trump has lied all along on this but claims he has no responsibility on anything. He refuses t even put out the real numbers by making up whatever he wants to use for self promotion. This will continue to be bad as long as trump is involved in anything with this.

[Aussie105]

8. The aim

is to slow down the pandemic as much as possible.

The 2 to 3 weeks will be extended.

The slowdown is important, it makes it less likely medical services will be overwhelmed and the Italian Quandary will apply - who to treat and who to let die.

[whathehell]

16. You know this for a fact, huh?

Wow...Where are you getting the 'inside scoop'?

[Loki Liesmith]

19. Uh everyone knows that

[whathehell]

20. Uh, if "everyone knows that"

Why waste time posting it?

[jberryhill]

85. Because it answers the question posed by the OP

[whathehell]

95. Sorry, but I don't see how "because everyone knows it"

answers the question of the OP.

[cwydro]

26. That's pretty much what Fauci is saying.

Slow down and/or blunt the peak.

[whathehell]

28. If you read the post..

you'll see Aussie went a lot further than Fauci.

[yardwork]

29. I'm not seeing that, actually. The post reflects what reliable reports are saying.

In Italy, hospitals were overwhelmed by the number of cases presenting all at once. We're trying to avoid that here in the U.S.

The poster thinks the 2-3 week quarantine will be extended. That seems very possible but let's hope not.

[whathehell]

34. Really?

I don't see any "reliable reports" predicting the world as being on the '"choosing who dies" trajectory.

[yardwork]

36. Reports from hospitals in Italy and China say exactly that.

That's what happened. Imagine dozens of people in respiratory failure presenting at a hospital Emergency Department at the same time. The hospital has a limited number of ventilators. The personnel have to decide who gets put on the few ventilators. Imagine hundreds of people who are having trouble breathing coming to the hospital at the same time. Even the most advanced hospitals in the world don't have the equipment or resources to respond.

This is why these quarantines are being put in place, to slow the spread of the epidemic so that hundreds or even thousands of people don't get sick at once.

[whathehell]

39. Those reports reflect the situation in those countries..

..not necessarily others.

[yardwork]

40. I can assure you that there is no hospital in the world that is equipped to handle this situation.

I live in a community with several world-class medical facilities. We have some of the best healthcare facilities in the world. This time of year, those hospitals are full already with patients who have the flu and other illnesses and trauma.

No hospital anywhere is prepared to handle dozens or hundreds or even thousands of patients presenting at the same time in respiratory distress.

That's a fact.

[whathehell]

43. ..and I can assure you, that neither you nor anyone

even knows what "this situation" is yet -- That is a fact.

[yardwork]

44. Fortunately, infectious disease experts know how to prepare.

That's why these quarantines and closings are being put in place. These efforts will slow the progress of the disease so that our healthcare system has a better chance of responding.

Without going into detail about where I work, I will say that I've been told this directly by infectious disease experts.

These new steps are the right approach. There's no need to panic - in fact, panic and fear are counterproductive - but it's wise to comply with the recommended social distancing measures.

Be well. We'll get through this.

[Ms. Toad]

75. Thank you for your efforts to inform

a public that doesn't want to hear the truth.

[yardwork]

91. We do what we can.

It's always surprising to me to hear people assume that the U.S. health system is better than any other country's.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

79. So true.

Hospitals, morgues, restaurants, grocery stores, fire departments, everything you can think of is geared up to handle whatever the usual load of patients/customers/events that normally happens. Every one of those can handle some kind of increase. Ten percent over normal is probably not a problem, but much above that?

Think about the fact that a "normal" flu season tends to overwhelm hospitals. Part of that is because panicked people who really aren't that sick rush to the ER because they aren't feeling well. Another part is that more people than usual really are sick and need care.

I've read scary stuff about a lack of respirators that may become an issue down the road. The sad reality is that there is no way we would ever have respirators enough to deal with more than at best, a 25% increase in the need for them. It's just never going to happen that a vast excess of such things will be stockpiled.

In a related thought, I recall when dialysis machines were few, and communities had committees who got to decide who'd get dialysis and who wouldn't. In this case, lots and lots more of those machines were built, mainly because there was an obvious and ongoing need for them. Nowadays, anyone who needs dialysis gets it.

Respirators? Not the same because there is not a constant and ongoing and increasing need for them. They get used in crisis situations, which are generally relatively short term. And even though those who will need respirators during this crisis will probably only need them for a short time, it is that very short time need that establishes how many respirators get constructed and distributed to hospitals. So, somewhat like kidney dialysis 40 years ago, some hard decisions may need to be made in the near future about respirators.

[SlogginThroughIt]

99. WTH? Why so rude?

[whathehell]

104. Repeatededly stating one's opinions as "facts", minus links,

or documentation of any kind, is worse than "rude", it's irresponsible and conducive to panic. Have a nice day.

[Dem2]

102. Agreed

The short times are designed to keep panic to a minimum. They will most certainly be extended.

[Laurelin]

9. I don't know, but be prepared

No, don't buy up toilet paper or surgical masks.

What I do know is my husband's company had a work from home order for one week that was just extended to the end of March. The one week suggestion started in Noord Brabant and now includes all of the Netherlands , I think. All I'm saying in complete ignorance is nobody seems able to read the future but prepare for changes. (My ignorance is somewhat willful. I'm carefully following the rules and doing everything the CDC and WHO suggest, and I will add I've never before disinfected doorknobs, but I'm avoiding some news to avoid stress. I just look at What I Need To Do and return to the Big Bang Theory. )

We're still allowed to shop but I've cut back from my usual, groceries every few days by bike, and changed to, groceries once a week by car. My carrying capacity on a bike is too small. Since my refrigerator and freezer are also tiny it's a little bit challenging.

[BigmanPigman]

10. I have a small place with no storage so my

family agreed to store stuff for me at their houses since they have tons of room and many refrigerators/freezers and they are only a 15 min car ride away. Perhaps you are friendly with people or have family who can help you out with storage too?

[cwydro]

27. You can store dry gods and canned goods anywhere.

We used to fill up Rubbermaid containers when expecting a hurricane. They can sit outside even. Or on a porch, under the bed, in a car.

[whathehell]

38. ..and you have this on what authority?

Many internet sages have difficulty distinguishing Opinion from Fact.

[whathehell]

49. Lol, I never said 'THIS' would be 'behind the US in a month'

Sorry for challenging your undocumented "authority", dear,
but in point of fact, "This' virus has the briefest of histories, so I doubt that you, or any other lay person (however 'sane', lol) can predict the trajectory of the virus.
Nice try, though -- I enjoyed the dramatics.

[littlemissmartypants]

61. Perhaps you would feel more comfortable doing the mathematical computation yourself?

I'll wait while you polish off your degree in epidemiology.

Clearly you have loads of opinions. Is it too much to expect facts?

Good luck to you, whathehell.

I'll look for you on the other side.

[whathehell]

70. Perhaps you or the OP would "feel more comfortable"

Last edited Sun Mar 15, 2020, 06:39 PM - Edit history (1)

doing that, dear, since if you actually read my post, you'd see I'm not the one spouting "loads of opinions", I'm simply QUESTIONING the authority of those who are -- Get it now?

[littlemissmartypants]

74. No, I really don't. I am sorry you are so upset.

I hope you are able to work things out so you feel better soon. All the best to you, whathehell.

[whathehell]

84. Lol

Sorry, littlemiss, but you are the one who seems "so upset'.

Have a nice one.

[Ms. Toad]

76. On January 29, I predicted when the death toll would exceeed that of SARS

I was off by 3 days. You can go search for it, if you want. It's on DU.

That prediction was based on far less data than we have now, and I was pretty darn close.

Based on disesase trajectories in three countries, all of which are remarkably similar to each other, the deadlines will likely be extended. The thing that makes it more challenging in the US is that we have been following a "Don't test, don't tell" policy - so we may be far less than 10 days behind Italy. But even if we are a full 10 days behind, by two weeks from now it will be much clearer to everyone who thinks we're going overboard now that this is serious - so there will be less resistance to exending the deadlines.

[whathehell]

81. Marvelous

Do keep us posted.

[redwitch]

92. I don't understand your hostile tone.

Not helpful.

[Sugarcoated]

66. An infectious disease expert was a guest on

either Rachel or Lawrence O'Donnell, can't remember his name but maybe some other DU'er can recall. He said this very thing is one of his biggest concerns: How the public is going to react to what's going to be a much longer self isolation timeframe and how the government is going to handle the enormity of that.

[2naSalit]

42. Reasonable observation. I thought the same. ...nt

[janterry]

12. Epidemiologists have modeled how long people can stay in

quarantine. There's a peak to compliance, too. My guess is that early quarantine states think that when the emergency hits they can convince people to STILL comply.

Those that are asking for compliance later, think that they need to quarantine as the rise begins - so that they can offer a short quarantine.

I don't know what is right at this point. I fear the former (early quarantine) given our Fed gov't response.

[BigmanPigman]

13. A few weeks ago in Northern Italy the virus hit hard and they took

strict measures but they are seeing that the results of doing so are positive. Levels of cases are flattening out.

[janterry]

17. I want strict measures

Last edited Sat Mar 14, 2020, 08:02 AM - Edit history (1)

I don't have to work - but I have to get my daughter to school every day and our Gov. is NOT closing the schools yet (Vermont).

I am healthy, but older and have asthma. I also do the carpool so I have four kids (three not mine) in the car every morning.

I'm scared. Vermont has few hsp beds and when this REALLY hits, I don't think we can cope. Gov. Scott said last night we have about 236 open beds right now and can do 'serge capacity for another 56' -- and then the Gov. mumbled something about other states with availability. As we know, that's bs. NY and MA and NH are unlikely to free up beds for Vermont, if they are overloaded as well.

I wish I knew what to do.

[BigmanPigman]

50. I think the whole country's schools should close and have told

my teacher friends that they should take off and stay home. Parents can't take off since we need two incomes to exist now (unlike when many of us were kids). Kids are sent to school sick or before they are fully recovered. I was a teacher and the lower grades are filled with germs everywhere. Even with flu shots I was sick 90% of the school year. I got everything, from common colds to very strange illnesses that often went undiagnosed. I was thrilled to see that my ex-district closed down today for 2 weeks starting Monday. It will be longer, I'm sure. I had to leave teaching since all the illnesses destroyed my health permanently and my doctors made me leave.

[Zeus69]

48. Where are you reading this?

[BigmanPigman]

51. I saw it and heard it several times last night

and today on CNN when they were discussing how strict measures have helped make a difference in the areas where it first appeared.

[BigmanPigman]

73. Here is a post with a graph showing the results

of quick actions in two Italian areas that were hit.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213104121#post2

[global1]

14. Imagine The Panic If They Said 'Closed For Eight Weeks'......

You'd need a lot more TP than you just bought. If you thought the stores were chaotic now - think of what it would have been if they said "no sports for 8 weeks'.

[uponit7771]

22. 8 wks is what Fauci said on Fox News

[progree]

15. It's out of an abundance of caution. Really, just need to cancel for 5 days or so

Oh, and avoid gatherings of more than 250 people, sing Happy Birthday twice while washing your hands, sneeze in your elbow, and everything will be fine

[tblue37]

30. I shake my head at the advice to avoid large gatherings. Different states have different

numbers: 100, 250, 500, 1000.

I think a gathering with even 100 people equals a lot of unnecessary exposure. Why such large "acceptable" numbers?

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

69. I was at a couple of large gatherings yesterday. Grocery lines. nt

[Totally Tunsie]

78. I've been asking that all along.

Who picks these magic numbers? You can easily be at risk in a group of 10!

[jberryhill]

86. This is your answer

These numbers are picked by people who know how to read this nomograph:

[Sherman A1]

18. Because

Nobody really knows what to do. Lots of these events mean jobs to people along with money to the hosts and require time to plan. The postponements will undoubtedly be extended as more information develops.

[mrs_p]

21. To flatten the curve

It will still be here in 2 weeks, but the idea is to spread the number of sick people out over time. That way resources won’t be overwhelmed all at once.

[uponit7771]

23. That still means 2 more weeks

Last edited Sun Mar 15, 2020, 01:52 AM - Edit history (1)

[samnsara]

24. i thinks its kind of a time out.....Im fully expecting no Farmers Markets this summer as well..

...I make and sell fiber arts and pine needle baskets. I really dont want people picking up my products to look at them and then putting them down again. The farmers and their products and the food vendors. Even tho its outside and the fresh air..

The public works closed the libraries, swimming pools and Senior Centers and Youth Centers this week...indefinitely. The Gov closed schools state wide for 6 weeks..

I live 11 miles from town so I self isolate every dang day. I only go into town once a week for a small class thats been cancelled. I have three freezers full of food and my dog food is delivered by subscription.

[Buckeyeblue]

25. People can only think in 2-3 week blocks

8 weeks is too much to start with. People would panic. Start with 2-3 weeks and slowly extend.

It's the psychology the gas companies used on us to increase the price of gas. Up high for a short period, then lowered. It's time it went up it stayed there a little longer. Until finally it just stayed there.

As humans we are pretty much suckers. As long as you get us used to something, we will adapt to just about anything.

[delisen]

33. Albert Camus author of The Plague is echoed by your last sentence.

I agree with you and with him-we can get used to just about anything.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

31. Because the situation is moving so quickly that it's easier to start small and scale as we go than

to try and guess at a longer closure time.

[StarryNite]

59. Yes, ease people into it.

Reassess and extend. Hopefully summer's heat will slow it down too.

[dewsgirl]

32. Because it will add to the panic if be think it may last

for a while, they will certainly panic.
My son is stationed in Qatar, they had an emergency meeting about the travel ban yesterday, they are due back in the summer. They told them if the ban is still in effect, they will not be allowed to return until it is lifted. Took my breath away, they are U.S. citizens, I don't understand why arrangements can't be made.

[gibraltar72]

35. Flattening the curve

They are trying to keep medical facilities from being whelmed. If science says that hasn't worked they will keep rolling it longer and longer. I trust that many are watching Inslees Washington right now. Willing to bet more Governors trust him than they do Trump.

[Chainfire]

37. People prefer to take their pain in small doses.

It would be emotionally overpowering to many people to admit that the crisis may continue to grow for many weeks and not decline for months.

[whathehell]

41. Some people prefer doom and gloom

catastrophe scenarios...I do hope they're enjoying themselves.

[mnhtnbb]

46. And some people prefer to live in a state of denial

becoming astonished when the worst does come to pass even though they hoped for the best.

[whathehell]

47. Yes, and at this early stage, some prefer to acknowledge both

possibilities and avoid premature jumps into unbridled Optimism or Pessimism.

[Rollo]

52. Because that's how long it will take to build the concentration camps for liberals...

[jberryhill]

87. Wait! She said it was just a tennis pavilion!

[littlemissmartypants]

100. Gravedigger for... Wishful thinking Maliria. nt

[Totally Tunsie]

53. I feel the same way about the artificial limit of 250 person gatherings.

Who came up with that magic number? Yet, almost every pertinent organization has plucked that out of the air.

Hell, you can have a gathering of 10 people, and someone there might have CV.

IMO, better to say NO gatherings.

[jberryhill]

88. .

[juxtaposed]

54. b/c in 2 weeks it will not matter. In 2 weeks you will not recognize this country.

[applegrove]

55. 8 to 20 weeks is more like it. But they start off with baby steps and then extend it.

That is probably going to panic others less.

[Demovictory9]

77. everyone is talking two months now

[blueinredohio]

90. Our governor closed all schools for 3 weeks.

At a press conference yesterday he said schools could very well be closed for the rest of the year. I don't care for him (republican) but I have to give him credit, he is stepping up to this crisis.

[Alliepoo]

103. Spoke w a school admin friend tiday

She said nothing definite yet but her gut feeling is that schools in Ohio will not be going back for the remainder of the school year.

[John Fante]

56. 5 stages of grief

1.denial - We've all but cleared this hurdle. Even Dotard finally declared a state of emergency.

2. anger - The 5 stages are interchangeable, so we sorta skipped this one, but we'll get to it eventually. Oh, will we get to it.

3. bargaining - We are here. 2-week closures in some schools, events postponed for a 2-4 weeks, laughably believing that if we wash our hands NOW we won't need a nationwide quarantine, etc.

4. depression - we'll get here when the death count soars. It will be mixed with healthy and unhealthy doses of anger. The idiots will blame the Chinese. The majority of us will (rightfully) blame Trump. We could be in South Korea's shoes right now. Instead, we'll be in Italy's.

5. acceptance - several years, maybe decades, down the line.

[BigmanPigman]

58. #5

I heard that the reason we don't hear more about the Spanish Flu was due to the response of the average American. Supposedly, they were mostly taking care of people they were very, very close to, not strangers, etc and they were embarrassed. The Spanish Flu killed many more people than WWI but many people are not even aware of its place in history.

[StarryNite]

60. .

[jberryhill]

94. "We could be in South Korea's shoes right now. Instead, we'll be in Italy's"

Good.

Italian shoes are much more fashionable.

[LizBeth]

57. Easier to say two weeks and then go from there. In my area I saw an event closed at the end of May.

A big event for this community. So, this is not done, it was just the first step to close things down and assess.

[littlemissmartypants]

62. Maybe this? Time to review and reevaluate, I think. It's like setting short and long term goals.

By setting short term goals it affords an opportunity to adjust goals on the way to the long-term, final goal by evaluation of outcomes at intervals.

I found this article about flattening the curve interesting. Maybe it will be helpful to you.

Stay encouraged, BigmanPigman.

❤ lmsp

https://www.sciencealert.com/dragging-out-the-coronavirus-epidemic-is-important-in-saving-lives

[BigmanPigman]

63. I just read this and

found it and the graphics interesting....

https://t.co/IJ58Hf5WHc?amp=1

[littlemissmartypants]

67. Yes, interesting. I was annoyed by the lack of accounting for the dead.

But I understood the basis for the simulations was to show social distancing not necessarily the actual outcomes in our current situation. It's a great resource for anyone who doesn't get the concept of flattening the curve from just reading about it. The visuals were almost hypnotic.

Thanks for sharing with me, BigmanPigman.

❤

[Demovictory9]

64. local school system is shutting down for a month

[BigmanPigman]

65. I just wrote to my friend, another teacher,

and told her that this will probably go longer than the normal 3 1/2 weeks we had for Spring Break at my former year round school. Usually we would teach until the end of July and have off until Sept. This year the Spring Break may meld into the Summer Vacation. The school is next to a military base where some cruise ship passengers were taken recently. If I were still teaching there I would have already left the school site until this is really over.

[Kaleva]

68. I fully expect that to be extended to months.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

71. It's because Magic April is coming! Ok, that's not funny, but it could be the thinking.

[zackymilly]

72. It's a start. After 2 weeks, there will be re-evaluations. n/t

[Totally Tunsie]

80. Life as we know it is going to change drastically

and I can't even begin to wrap my head around how different it's going to be for quite a while. I think we're in for changes like we've never imagined before.

There will be thousands of books, movies, plays and TV dramas about this age someday in the future, after all the bruises have healed and the hurt has passed.

[DeminPennswoods]

82. 2 weeks is supposed to be the maximum incubation period

If you were near someone who had the virus, it shouldn't take more than 2 weeks for it to show up. That's the idea behind it.

At least the weather is warming up and people will be able to go out. But I don't think Americans will comply with being restricted for longer than a couple of weeks, to be honest.

[herding cats]

83. Look to Vegas where the MGM properties aren't taking reservations until May 1st.

That's probably more realistic considering how far this has gotten already.

We could still begin to flatten out our curve, but we're a wild herd of cats (kind of like Europe) which makes it more difficult to know the actual outcome.

Then there's our leadership who blindly were so self-serving as to pretend all would be well. Someone really should have told Trump his elderly RW base would be deeply impacted. I truly believe we'd have seen a completely different response out of the box if they had.

[BigmanPigman]

97. Someone may have told him but ne doesn't LISTEN.

He knows more than everybody else so why should he. Other countries have competant leaders but not us.

[mercuryblues]

89. The slow boil

[ananda]

93. Good question!

I'm thinking more in terms of months.

At least two or three weeks is a good start.

But we need national and GOP leadership on this,
and it doesn't look as though we will get it.

If you think the chaos and stress due to under-reaction
and the wish to profit are bad now ...

[JCMach1]

96. To avoid panic

[KentuckyWoman]

98. It can be extended

[Lulu KC]

101. This situation is really bringing out interesting things in people.

I am grateful for those of you who are being kind, sharing information, and for the ignore button.

That is all.