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Sun Mar 15, 2020, 10:02 AM

THE CYTOKINE STORM (Possibly millions of young, healthy people WILL DIE from COVID-19)

COVID-19 has already killed a disproportionate number of young, healthy people that have been infected with it, and it will continue to do so. Normally with influenza viruses, we are most concerned about potential fatalities among the very young, the very old, and the very weak. This viral infection is somewhat different. While the 2019 Coronavirus will prove lethal to some of the very old and some of the very weak, it is unlikely to prove deadly to the very young. So far, there have been very few deaths among persons in the 0-9 years of age range. The 20-40 range, however, is at particular risk with this kind of virus. Here's why:

UNDERSTAND THE CYTOKINE STORM

This coronavirus can trigger "Cytokine release syndrome" (a cytokine storm) in persons with particularly healthy immune systems. COVID-19 is a disease that you actually have a better chance of surviving if your immune system is slightly compromised. The 1918 flu pandemic (The Spanish Flu) killed between 50 and 100 million people, many of whom were young and healthy. Evidently, the virus triggers the body's immune system and keeps triggering it, non-stop and relentlessly, until the infected person is killed by their own, super-strong immune system. That is the essence of a cytokine storm, and it's why many young, healthy people are likely to be struck down by this disease.

It is believed that cytokine storms were responsible for the disproportionate number of healthy young adult deaths during the 1918 influenza pandemic, which killed 50 to 100 million people.[15] In this case, a healthy immune system may have been a liability rather than an asset. Preliminary research results from Hong Kong also indicated this as the probable reason for many deaths during the SARS epidemic in 2003.[16] Human deaths from the bird flu H5N1 usually involve cytokine storms as well.[17] Cytokine storm has also been implicated in hantavirus pulmonary syndrome.[18]

In 2006, a medical study at Northwick Park Hospital in England resulted in all 6 of the volunteers given the drug TGN1412 becoming critically ill, with multiple organ failure, high fever, and a systemic inflammatory response.[19] Parexel, a company conducting trials for pharmaceutical companies, in one of its own documents, wrote about the trial and said TGN1412 could cause a cytokine storm—the dangerous reaction the men experienced.[20]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome


Take a look at this graph:



Notice the spike centered on the 25-34 range. Those are our healthiest people, and this graph deals in percentages. Yes, the chances of dying are higher for persons in the 75+ range, but there are many fewer people in that age range than in the 25-34 range. The raw number of deaths is likely to be highest among those who are young and healthy if COVID-19 follows the pattern of the 1918 flu pandemic.

Even if it doesn't exactly mimic the 1918 pandemic, it is foolish to pretend that our most healthy people are unlikely to die as a result of COVID-19. The high number of deaths that occurred as a result of the 1918 pandemic seems to be related to the fact that we actively selected transmission of more virulent strains of the virus. There were millions of troops in the trenches during WWI that came down with that virus. The ones who were only a little sick (ones with the less-virulent strains) were left at the front. The ones who were very sick (ones with the most virulent strains) were sent on crowded trains into the hinterlands--to multiple hospitals across multiple countries, where these more virulent strains were quickly transmitted to the local population and ended up killing tens of millions of people.

Answer: Isolate the more virulent strains. Well over half of us are going to catch this thing. Our best hope is to catch a less-virulent strain that we survive and that will then give us some immunity to the more virulent strains, but please, young people, do not assume that you are invulnerable. We all need to be very careful.



-Laelth

101 replies, 10807 views

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Reply THE CYTOKINE STORM (Possibly millions of young, healthy people WILL DIE from COVID-19) (Original post)
Laelth Mar 2020 OP
Laelth Mar 2020 #1
renate Mar 2020 #86
Laelth Mar 2020 #87
OhNo-Really Mar 2020 #89
renate Mar 2020 #90
Hermit-The-Prog Mar 2020 #94
Laelth Mar 2020 #97
dhill926 Mar 2020 #2
Laelth Mar 2020 #8
DFW Mar 2020 #3
Laelth Mar 2020 #69
TheBlackAdder Mar 2020 #73
marlakay Mar 2020 #99
smirkymonkey Mar 2020 #4
Laelth Mar 2020 #7
LaelthsDaughter Mar 2020 #5
Laelth Mar 2020 #68
Akacia Mar 2020 #6
Quixote1818 Mar 2020 #9
octoberlib Mar 2020 #11
Quixote1818 Mar 2020 #12
groundloop Mar 2020 #23
enid602 Apr 2020 #101
cilla4progress Mar 2020 #52
octoberlib Mar 2020 #10
Laelth Mar 2020 #14
Proud Liberal Dem Mar 2020 #44
Laelth Mar 2020 #49
wnylib Mar 2020 #75
Laelth Mar 2020 #77
wnylib Mar 2020 #80
Laelth Mar 2020 #81
wnylib Mar 2020 #83
Laelth Mar 2020 #84
cwydro Mar 2020 #13
madville Mar 2020 #15
Quixote1818 Mar 2020 #16
Laelth Mar 2020 #17
Takket Mar 2020 #29
Laelth Mar 2020 #85
obamanut2012 Mar 2020 #38
Laelth Mar 2020 #79
gollygee Mar 2020 #21
Laelth Mar 2020 #55
McCamy Taylor Mar 2020 #18
Laelth Mar 2020 #19
Claritie Pixie Mar 2020 #30
Laelth Mar 2020 #35
The_jackalope Mar 2020 #20
The_jackalope Mar 2020 #22
The_jackalope Mar 2020 #24
groundloop Mar 2020 #25
The_jackalope Mar 2020 #26
OAITW r.2.0 Mar 2020 #27
Laelth Mar 2020 #82
PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2020 #28
Laelth Mar 2020 #34
obamanut2012 Mar 2020 #39
Laelth Mar 2020 #71
Claritie Pixie Mar 2020 #31
Laelth Mar 2020 #33
obamanut2012 Mar 2020 #37
Laelth Mar 2020 #65
sarisataka Mar 2020 #42
PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2020 #61
Laelth Mar 2020 #62
PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2020 #63
Laelth Mar 2020 #95
PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2020 #98
Chemisse Mar 2020 #32
Strelnikov_ Mar 2020 #54
obamanut2012 Mar 2020 #36
cwydro Mar 2020 #40
Laelth Mar 2020 #41
cwydro Mar 2020 #47
Laelth Mar 2020 #58
cwydro Mar 2020 #59
Laelth Mar 2020 #60
Laelth Mar 2020 #43
greenjar_01 Mar 2020 #46
Laelth Mar 2020 #67
RealityChik Mar 2020 #74
Laelth Mar 2020 #96
cwydro Mar 2020 #48
Laelth Mar 2020 #64
lunasun Apr 2020 #100
greenjar_01 Mar 2020 #45
Laelth Mar 2020 #50
greenjar_01 Mar 2020 #51
Laelth Mar 2020 #56
cwydro Mar 2020 #57
Laelth Mar 2020 #70
RealityChik Mar 2020 #92
cilla4progress Mar 2020 #53
Laelth Mar 2020 #66
garybeck Mar 2020 #72
marybourg Mar 2020 #76
Laelth Mar 2020 #78
amuse bouche Mar 2020 #88
BeckyDem Mar 2020 #91
OnlinePoker Mar 2020 #93

Response to Laelth (Original post)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 12:11 PM

1. Please share and feel free to re-post.

This is important information.

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #1)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 06:01 PM

86. I'm being rude and posting this up high because of all the posts doubting you

Is The Lancet a good enough source for everybody?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30628-0/fulltext

(Try as I might, I can't do anything to fix the stuff after the first parenthesis to get the link to work automatically. But cut and paste the whole line and it'll take you to the article.)

Accumulating evidence suggests that a subgroup of patients with severe COVID-19 might have a cytokine storm syndrome. We recommend identification and treatment of hyperinflammation using existing, approved therapies with proven safety profiles to address the immediate need to reduce the rising mortality.

snip

Secondary haemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (sHLH) is an under-recognised, hyperinflammatory syndrome characterised by a fulminant and fatal hypercytokinaemia with multiorgan failure.

snip

As during previous pandemics (severe acute respiratory syndrome and Middle East respiratory syndrome), corticosteroids are not routinely recommended and might exacerbate COVID-19-associated lung injury.7 However, in hyperinflammation, immunosuppression is likely to be beneficial.

snip

All patients with severe COVID-19 should be screened for hyperinflammation using laboratory trends (eg, increasing ferritin, decreasing platelet counts, or erythrocyte sedimentation rate) and the HScore11 (table) to identify the subgroup of patients for whom immunosuppression could improve mortality. Therapeutic options include steroids, intravenous immunoglobulin, selective cytokine blockade (eg, anakinra or tocilizumab) and JAK inhibition.

(In other words, this IS a thing, but the subset of patients with an hyperinflammatory syndrome can be identified and treated accordingly, so in this aspect, at least, we don't have to worry about a repeat of 1918.)

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Response to renate (Reply #86)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 06:30 PM

87. Not rude at all. Thank you. n/t

-Laelth

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Response to renate (Reply #86)

Thu Mar 19, 2020, 09:52 PM

89. Lancet is difficult to link. Try this one ✨❤️✨




Last try 🥴

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Response to OhNo-Really (Reply #89)

Thu Mar 19, 2020, 10:26 PM

90. Thanks!!!

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Response to renate (Reply #86)

Sat Mar 21, 2020, 03:16 PM

94. you can use %28 and %29 for parentheses ...

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2930628-0/fulltext

or, use the link button or tag provided to make a named link:

The Lancet

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Response to Laelth (Reply #1)

Sun Mar 22, 2020, 10:28 AM

97. There's hope for an anti-cytokine storm drug (an immune-system suppressant).

Calming the Cytokine Storm

This little-understood phenomenon is thought to occur in at least several types of infections and autoimmune conditions, but it appears to be particularly relevant in outbreaks of new flu variants. Cytokine storm is now seen as a likely major cause of mortality in the 1918-20 "Spanish flu" -- which killed more than 50 million people worldwide -- and the H1N1 "swine flu" and H5N1 "bird flu" of recent years. In these epidemics, the patients most likely to die were relatively young adults with apparently strong immune reactions to the infection -- whereas ordinary seasonal flu epidemics disproportionately affect the very young and the elderly.

For the past eight years, Rosen's and Oldstone's laboratories have collaborated in analyzing the cytokine storm and finding treatments for it. In 2011, led by Teijaro, who was then a research associate in the Oldstone Lab, the TSRI team identified endothelial cells lining blood vessels in the lungs as the central orchestrators of the cytokine storm and immune cell infiltration during H1N1 flu infection.

In a separate study, the TSRI researchers found that they could quiet this harmful reaction in flu-infected mice and ferrets by using a candidate drug compound to activate immune-damping receptors (S1P1 receptors) on the same endothelial cells. This prevented most of the usual mortality from H1N1 infection -- and did so much more effectively than the existing antiviral drug oseltamivir, although the combination of both therapies worked even better. "That was really the first demonstration that inhibiting the cytokine storm is protective," said Teijaro.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/02/140227142250.htm


-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Original post)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 12:15 PM

2. K & R...

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Response to dhill926 (Reply #2)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 02:08 PM

8. Thank you for the k&r.

This, I think, is important information. Feel free to share and repost at will.

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Original post)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 12:26 PM

3. A 31 year old co-worker of my younger daughter tested positive and is now in a coma

The guy was apparently in the best of health. It sounds like this is EXACTLY what happened to him.

This is not something to trivialize.

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Response to DFW (Reply #3)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 08:01 PM

69. Thank you, my friend.

Anecdotal evidence is all that we have to work with at this time, but it is clear that COVID-19 can and does cause Cytokine Storms in the young and healthy people who are exposed to it.

Laelth

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Response to DFW (Reply #3)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 12:44 AM

73. Can't reveal source, but NATO country has 4 twenty-somethings in ICU--self-medicated with Ibuprofen.

.

I got this skinny from connections, so I'm being vague on country. It's not France.

They all have coronavirus and there is a link between that and using ibuprofen, says country's leader.

.

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Response to TheBlackAdder (Reply #73)

Sun Mar 22, 2020, 01:16 PM

99. My 38 yr old daughter bought a big bottle

Of that and was going to use it till I sent her link and she got Tylenol instead.

She is healthy just was getting prepared.

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Response to Laelth (Original post)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 12:41 PM

4. K&R

 

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Response to smirkymonkey (Reply #4)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 01:27 PM

7. Thank you.

This is important information, imo. Please share and distribute at will.

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Original post)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 12:48 PM

5. Spooky

Ya’ll! Spread the word and please be carefull. Tell anyone, especially the young adults! I wish everyone the best.

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Response to LaelthsDaughter (Reply #5)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 07:35 PM

68. Thank you for the kick, my daughter. n/t



-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Original post)


Response to Laelth (Original post)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 02:12 PM

9. Scishow covered this. They say it nothing to do with the strong immune systems. Was because

people in that age group hadn't seen anything like that strand of the flu as kids:



&t=260s

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Response to Quixote1818 (Reply #9)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 02:19 PM

11. Scientists at the National Institute of Health disagree

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Response to octoberlib (Reply #11)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 02:22 PM

12. It's not showing up at all in the data for this virus. Not even close.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Reply #12)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 08:54 PM

23. Agreed. I haven't been able to find any reputable corroboration for this theory.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Reply #12)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 11:22 AM

101. poor math

Only adds up to 24.3%. So much for the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

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Response to octoberlib (Reply #11)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 10:04 AM

52. Wish I could truly

understand this article!

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Response to Laelth (Original post)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 02:16 PM

10. Organ failure has been mentioned in some of the COVID deaths. I bet this is exactly what's happening

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Response to octoberlib (Reply #10)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 02:39 PM

14. Sadly, it seems likely.

This is no ordinary flu.

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #14)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 09:29 AM

44. It's not considered a Flu strain though, right?

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Response to Proud Liberal Dem (Reply #44)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 09:37 AM

49. It's not. It's a SARS virus.

SARS-CoV-2, to be precise, but our Orangutan-in-Chief called it nothing more than an ordinary flu. That was after he called it a hoax. I am attempting to dissuade people from those notions.

Please note that I do not call SARS-CoV-2 an influenza virus in the OP. In fact, I go out of my way to say that “This virus is somewhat different.”

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #49)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 08:51 AM

75. So, since this is different from

the flu, why are you suggesting that it will act like some strains of flu? None of the reliable info I have seen so far indicates a cytokine type of response. It's a "hybrid" virus.

The covid 19 symptoms do not fit a cytokine attack description. I don't see anything anywhere that supports the OP in relation to covid 19.

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Response to wnylib (Reply #75)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 09:04 AM

77. The text blockquoted in the OP says that ...

SARS has been shown to be capable of causing a lethal, Cytokine Storm. The same has been shown in relation to H5N1. The same has been shown in relation to hantavirus. Even an experimental drug has been shown capable of causing a Cytokine Storm. Is it not reasonable to assume that SARS-CoV-2 can do the same?

How else do we explain the phenomenon described by DFW in post 3, above?

Ultimately, we don’t know what is going to happen, here, but I prefer to err on the side of caution.

Thank you for the response.

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #77)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 10:43 AM

80. Yet nothing in the age statisics

supports such a reaction and it's been around long enough now, around the world, to show up if this type of reaction was going to happen.

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Response to wnylib (Reply #80)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 10:45 AM

81. The virus will mutate.

The OP advises isolating the more virulent strains, unlike what happened in WWI where, it appears, transmission of more virulent strains was encouraged.

-Laelth

P.S. I have to wonder how many people actually read my OP as opposed to those who just reacted to the headline. Admittedly, the OP is long. I was trying to be very careful. Sigh.

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Response to Laelth (Reply #81)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 11:57 AM

83. I did read the OP which focused

primarily on explaining what a cytokine storm is, which I already knew from the swine flu outbreak. The only possible connection made to a cytokine storm in the OP is the mention that it did happen with SARS. But, although the covid 19 virus has SARS RNA in its makeup, that is only part of its composition.

The demographic statistics so far do not indicate cytokine storms in young healthy people, as was the concern with swine flu. This is a viral infection, but it is not a flu infection.

Yes, it will mutate. It already has had some minor mutations that can be traced to their origins in this outbreak. Viruses mutate all the time for their own survival. We don't know what future mutations will be like or what symptoms they will produce.

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Response to wnylib (Reply #83)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 12:05 PM

84. I assumed that you did. Thank you.

Look. I will admit that the parenthetical in the headline is inflammatory, OK, but I wanted to draw attention to this issue and to warn young people that they too are at risk in the hope that they might be more careful. I also wanted to educate people about the Cytokine Storm phenomenon. I needed an attention-grabbing headline to do that. This thread has served my purpose.

It’s not like I am getting paid to expend my energy in this way. I have no ulterior motive.

I wish you well.

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Original post)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 02:24 PM

13. Bookmarked.

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Response to Laelth (Original post)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 02:46 PM

15. Nothing in the data so far indicates that this is happening with this virus

A small number people in the 40-60 age range have succumbed to this virus, and only a handful of deaths under 40. At this point this theory is just pure speculation.

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Response to madville (Reply #15)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 02:52 PM

16. Agree. nt

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Response to madville (Reply #15)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 07:31 PM

17. There's anecdotal evidence that this disease is killing people ...

... who should not die from an ordinary flu. If so, the reason is that this virus is capable of instigating a Cytokine Storm, very unlike an ordinary flu.

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #17)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 09:57 PM

29. the people who are young and die more likely have underlying health issues.

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Response to Takket (Reply #29)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 05:42 PM

85. But what if they don't?

Isn’t it possible that a Cytokine Storm reaction is responsible? How else can we explain cases like the one mentioned by DFW in post #3, above?



-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #17)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 09:04 AM

38. There is zero anecdotal evidence of this

And, in addition, anecdotal evidence is the opposite of actual scientific data.

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Response to madville (Reply #15)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 08:31 PM

21. Agree

There is lots of alarmist speculation about this virus.

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Response to gollygee (Reply #21)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 11:05 AM

55. Italy, France, and Spain have shut down all but essential commerce.

This is a global pandemic. My OP explains why this particular virus, SARS-CoV-2, may prove to be particularly dangerous to those who are young and healthy. The potential for a Cytokine Storm is the answer. The OP advises the young and healthy not to minimize the risk of this disease, and it advises them to be careful.

If that’s “alarmist,” so be it. I consider my OP to be a reasonable public health warning and an explanation for why young and healthy people are dying from COVID-19.

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Original post)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 08:06 PM

18. Influenza cannot be extrapolated to coronavirus.

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Response to McCamy Taylor (Reply #18)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 08:12 PM

19. Why not?

If both the 1918 influenza and COVID-19 (both highly contagious airborne viruses) can both trigger Cytokine Storms in their victims, I don’t see the point in splitting hairs over their “official” designations.

They’re similar enough in my book.

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #19)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 10:02 PM

30. If you had any knowledge at all you'd know you can't.

So tired of people conflating influenza with coronavirus.

Different species of viruses and their behavior are not interchangeable.

Your OP is full of conjecture with no clinical evidence to back it up.

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Response to Claritie Pixie (Reply #30)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 08:57 AM

35. Both can trigger a Cytokine Storm. That's my point.

Never in the OP do I say that SARS-CoV-2 IS influenza. In fact, I go out of my way to say that “This virus is somewhat different.”

I do appreciate your input, however. Thank you.

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Original post)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 08:21 PM

20. It may have shown up in the S. Korean data.

https://www.trendsmap.com/twitter/tweet/1239072975829123072



Different strains? Different population responses? Who knows? But it shows.

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Response to The_jackalope (Reply #20)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 08:36 PM

22. Here's the article about it

Coronavirus: Why it’s so deadly in Italy

The cases behind the case fatality rate

Let us assume every country is equally capable of counting the numerator of the CFR, the fatalities due to COVID-19, and will report them accurately; an assumption that is tolerable if we focus on non-authoritarian high-income countries. What do we then need to know about the denominator, the confirmed cases? The strongest predictors of fatality due to COVID-19 are age and pre-existing conditions of the infected. The number of pre-existing conditions is positively correlated with age, so let us for simplicity only look at the age of the confirmed cases. Clearly, because age is so predictive of death by COVID-19, comparing the case fatality rates across countries only makes sense if the underlying cases of coronavirus have approximately the same age across countries.

What do we know about the age of the people that have been found to be infected with the coronavirus? This information is not easy to find, but it has been popping up in reports and newspapers from the various countries over the past days. The diagrams and figures reported in the following are based on statistics reported by the Korean news agency news1 (screenshot) and the Italian daily newspaper Corriere della Sera.

Grouping the age in ten-year-intervals and comparing the percentage shares of cases that fall into each age group reveals a striking dissimilarity between South Korea (red bars) and Italy (green bars): Recently, 3% of all confirmed cases in South Korea were at least 80 years old. At about the same time, 19.1% of all confirmed cases in Italy were at least 80 years old.

This enormous difference occurred while the absolute numbers of confirmed cases overall were similar in the two countries (8,036 in Italy vs 7,134 in South Korea). Consequently, Italy’s healthcare and hospital system had to take care of a much higher number of infected older patients than the South Korean one — patients that need more intensive care and that are simultaneously more likely to pass away.

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Response to The_jackalope (Reply #22)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 09:47 PM

24. With a possible explanation for the difference: testing protocols

Hence, the question remains why the age distribution of cases is shaped so differently in Italy compared to South Korea. It has also been pointed out that the testing procedures for coronavirus in the countries are very different — Italy has predominantly been testing people with symptoms of a coronavirus infection, while South Korea has been testing basically everyone since the outbreak had become apparent. Consequently, South Korea has detected more asymptomatic, but positive cases of coronavirus than Italy, in particular among young people.

A complementary reason is that the Korean outbreak took place mainly among followers of the Shincheonji megachurch/sect in and around the city of Daegu. Possibly, many followers of this movement are of relatively young age, explaining the unusual spike of cases among the 20–29-year-olds once testing intensified around this group. This might have also prevented the virus from spreading extensively among the Korean elderly so far. With regard to Italy, we do not know who spread the virus among the old population of the North — but the surprisingly high number of tourists that have been diagnosed with coronavirus after returning from trips to Northern Italy suggests that the unnoticed and asymptomatic spread of the virus has probably been going on there for quite some time, building up to then ravage the elderly.

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Response to The_jackalope (Reply #20)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 09:48 PM

25. That chart shows who's getting infected, NOT anything related to any "Cytokine Storm"

The article you linked stated that young people in S. Korea are far more active socially, and therefore much more likely to catch the virus. It doesn't show one thread of evidence linked to who's dying from it.

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Response to groundloop (Reply #25)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 09:52 PM

26. Yes, it was an incorrect inference on my part.

It actually shows who's getting tested. Lots of asymptomatic cases are missed if you only test the symptomatic ones.

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Response to Laelth (Original post)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 09:54 PM

27. Yes, an important post.

No one is immune. I bet the 14-34 spike reflects the socialization needs of this age group. Much higher volumes of living people in this age range. Greater chance for exposure.

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Response to OAITW r.2.0 (Reply #27)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 11:29 AM

82. Thank you. n/t



-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Original post)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 09:54 PM

28. Huh? That cytokene storm was something that happened with the 1918 flu.

It's an anomaly that remains unique to this day.

There is ZERO indication that young people are disproportionately getting sick or dying from this. What you've posted is a weird and completely incorrect extrapolation that makes no sense. This is not influenza. It's a different kind of virus altogether. Those who are dying are mostly older and/or with underlying health conditions.

You really should take the OP down.

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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #28)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 08:47 AM

34. I don't understand where you are coming from.

For one thing, the OP makes clear that SARS, H5N1, hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, and even a trial drug can cause Cytokine Storms. In no way is Cytokine release syndrome unique to the 1918 flu pandemic.

In no place in the OP do I state that SARS-CoV-2 is influenza. In fact, I say, quite literally, that “This virus is somewhat different.”

Either way, the post is self-admittedly speculative. Its purpose is to serve as a warning to young and healthy people that they should not minimize the risk that this virus poses. Instead, I advise them to be careful.

I have no intention of deleting the post.

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #34)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 09:06 AM

39. Then you should be ashamed of ytourself for spreading misinformation

Many elderly are DUers, and many of them are very afraid. This isn't helping their fears and stress.

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Response to obamanut2012 (Reply #39)

Tue Mar 17, 2020, 09:12 AM

71. Don't you think a little fear is both rational and wise at this time? n/t



-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Original post)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 10:04 PM

31. This is an irresponsible post. No clinical evidence to back up your assertions.

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Response to Claritie Pixie (Reply #31)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 08:00 AM

33. And what "assertions" are you talking about?

I tried to write the post very carefully. I think that, if you were to read the post again, you will find few assertions that are controversial other than my statement that COVID-19 is killing a disproportionate number of young and healthy people. There’s significant anecdotal evidence in support of that assertion. We’re still waiting for the clinical data to come in. The fact that COVID-19 can generate a lethal Cytokine Storm has already been documented.

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #33)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 09:03 AM

37. Pixie is correct: your OP is not factual and is scare mongering

Please self delete ASAP.

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Response to obamanut2012 (Reply #37)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 04:05 PM

65. In what way is the OP "not factual"? Please explain. n/t

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #33)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 09:12 AM

42. "Anecdotal evidence"

'nuff said.

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Response to Laelth (Reply #33)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 12:47 PM

61. It is simply not true that COVID-19 is killing a disproportionate

number of young and healthy people. Basically, older and people with underlying health conditions are dying, not even disproportionately, but more or less in proportion to their risk. Alas. Being old, having health issues, make one more vulnerable to anything and pretty much everything.

And the cytokene storm being referenced seems very unlike what was happening in the 1918 flu epidemic.

Your posting is irresponsible.

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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #61)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 01:41 PM

62. Don't you think that the current numbers ...

... have something to do with the fact that health care is being rationed? Isn’t it possible that more elderly people are dying now because Italy decided to reserve its respirators for younger and healthier people?

Either way, I fail to see how I am being irresponsible. I am open to your explanation of that accusation.

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #62)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 02:13 PM

63. No. Older people are the ones dying from the start.

Look at the numbers out of China. Old people there were the main ones dying. Not the young.

Italy's essential problem right now seems to be the one, the virus took off amazingly well there, and a lack of sufficient hospital beds compared at least to this country.

This chart may help.



The 1918 flu epidemic is NOT an appropriate model for this.

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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #63)

Sun Mar 22, 2020, 09:54 AM

95. Italy is definitely rationing ventilators.

More elderly people are dying as a result.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213148971



-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #95)

Sun Mar 22, 2020, 01:11 PM

98. The rationing Italy is doing is affecting what's happening there

rather specifically.

And even though there are some younger people dying, it is clearly the older people and those with underlying health conditions who are dying in greater numbers and percentages.

While a shortage of ventilators is going to matter as to who gets treated, that does not change whose relative risk is greater.

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Response to Laelth (Original post)

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 11:15 PM

32. While a few healthy people who are not elderly have died,

the Covid-19 is NOT exhibiting the pattern of the 1918 influenza.

We are very fortunate that this new virus so far has mostly spared children and young people. Imagine the panic if that was not the case!

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Response to Chemisse (Reply #32)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 10:24 AM

54. . . and pregnant woman (in that pregnancy is not a comorbity)


As you note, people not having to worry about their kids. It is a blessing.


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Response to Laelth (Original post)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 09:03 AM

36. Except the data for covid-19 shows the exact oppsite -- delete this

DU and its not factual scaremongering posts need to be deleted by the OP or mods ASAP. All you are doing is needlessly freaking people out.

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Response to obamanut2012 (Reply #36)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 09:07 AM

40. I cant believe the nonsense I'm reading here daily.

People posting this kind of nonsense, other posting half-baked rumors from Twitter, others giving medical advice.

A shame to see it here, but not surprised.

The admins used to not allow medical advice to be posted here. I wish they’d bring that rule back.

Too many gullible folks here.

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Response to cwydro (Reply #40)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 09:11 AM

41. "Be careful" is BAD MEDICAL ADVICE?

That’s the only “advice” that you will find in the OP.



-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #41)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 09:35 AM

47. Posting that "possibly millions" of young healthy people will die is scaremongering.

But I feel sure you know that.

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Response to cwydro (Reply #47)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 12:13 PM

58. You're right.

People should be scared right now. If making people scared prevents the spread of this virus and if that well-justified fear actually flattens the Coronavirus curve, I will not feel guilty about a little fearmongering. That said, I hope the OP is informative, principally, and that it explains what Cytokine release syndrome is and further explains why young and healthy people are dying from COVID-19. If my OP generates some healthy fear and induces some people to self-isolate and/or take reasonable measures to flatten the curve of this pandemic, I will sleep easy knowing that I have done what I can to alleviate the effects of this global pandemic.

It’s not like I am getting paid for this. I have no ulterior motive.

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #58)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 12:14 PM

59. Again, please post links for young and healthy people dying from this disease.

Ive asked you twice now.

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Response to obamanut2012 (Reply #36)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 09:16 AM

43. Scaremongering?

Advising young and healthy people not to minimize the risk of this virus and advising them to be careful is scaremongering?

I really do not understand where you are coming from. I assume your intentions are good, however. Regrettably, you seem determined NOT to extend the same courtesy to me.

Either way, I appreciate your input.

-Laelth

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Response to obamanut2012 (Reply #36)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 09:33 AM

46. Agreed

 

We're seeing the worst of the worst.

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Response to greenjar_01 (Reply #46)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 06:19 PM

67. Is it possible that Italy is rationing its respirators?

Is it possible that Italy has decided that it’s best to allocate its respirators to the young and not the old? Might that account for the higher mortality rates among the elderly in Italy, at least?

We’re eleven days behind Italy in the progression of this pandemic, but we’re going to have to ration respirators here, too. My suspicion is that the rationing, here, will have more to do with the patient’s wealth, as opposed to age. But, we shall see what we see.

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #67)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 01:48 AM

74. Italy IS rationing care but...

It doesn't seem that decisions are based on wealth OR age. More likely on survivability. Article below is only one of many:

https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-italy-doctors-tough-calls-survival/

I, too, am skeptical of only anecdotal information, especially since your links identify a few people anecdotally that just don't translate to millions, as stated in the headline. Please let the experts do the warning, based on factually substantiated science data.

If you still believe your warning is valid and you have a Twitter account, visit Trevor Bedford's Twitter feed and ask him to validate your info. He's one of Seattle's leading epidemiology/virus statisticians. He's been at the forefront of tracking the origin and progression of the COVID-19 virus since December 2019, long before COVID-19 made the news. Has been referenced in the COVID-19 news globally. If anyone would know, it would be him.

https://mobile.twitter.com/trvrb

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Response to RealityChik (Reply #74)

Sun Mar 22, 2020, 09:56 AM

96. Italy IS rationing ventilators, and they are doing so on the basis of age. n/t

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Response to obamanut2012 (Reply #36)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 09:37 AM

48. Some love to see panic, and apparently want to stoke it.

We have a lot of gullible members here; really irresponsible for people to post some of the things I’ve been seeing. Smh.

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Response to cwydro (Reply #48)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 03:51 PM

64. Thank you for the kick.

I consider the information I posted above to be significant and worthy of public attention and scrutiny.

Any response regarding the anecdotal evidence that I provided you with? It is clear that COVID-19 can and does trigger a Cytokine Storm in some of its affected victims.

-Laelth

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Response to obamanut2012 (Reply #36)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 11:03 AM

100. + 100%

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Response to Laelth (Original post)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 09:32 AM

45. Deeply irresponsible headline

 

You can discuss cytokine storms responsibly with the general catastrophism.

Get a hold of yourself.

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Response to greenjar_01 (Reply #45)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 09:50 AM

50. For goodness sakes!

This is a global pandemic. Do you deny that? Multiple countries have literally shut down all except essential commerce. Do you deny that? Even the United States, with the Denier-in-Chief running the show, is under a national emergency. This situation is NOT ORDINARY.

I want people to understand why young, healthy people are dying from COVID-19. Cytokine release syndrome is the best explanation. I warn the young and healthy not to minimize the potential risk of this disease, and I advise them to be careful.

What’s so awful about that?



-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #50)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 09:52 AM

51. You're not being responsible

 

You've obviously convinced yourself that you're being the good person here, but you're not.

Get a hold of yourself.

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Response to greenjar_01 (Reply #51)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 11:29 AM

56. Well, you're right about that.

I am, in fact, convinced that I am being the good person, here. You have not yet convinced me otherwise.



-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Reply #50)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 11:32 AM

57. Please post a link where it shows young, healthy people dying from this disease.

waiting here.

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Response to Laelth (Reply #70)

Sat Mar 21, 2020, 03:01 PM

92. That's not fact...

Two were one-off single case anecdotes. Link #3, the poster couldn't be bothered to search for "the name of a Harvard doctor she couldn't remember who was interviewed on MSNBC" to make sure the information she was referring to was based in scientific fact. I looked on the web, especially since you referenced an article with a headline that this CytoKine Storm was killing millions of young people! I couldn't find any facts backing this up!

While it is cautious conjecture by medical professionals in China and the US that the CytoKine Storm syndrome MAY be a contributing factor in COVID-19 deaths regardless of age, it is, at the moment, no more than an educated, untested theory. But they are working on it, especially in China. One article stated there is already treatments for CytoKine Storm.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/12/21176783/coronavirus-covid-19-deaths-china-treatment-cytokine-storm-syndrome

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Response to Laelth (Original post)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 10:20 AM

53. Is this chart illness -

contraction of disease, or death?

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Response to cilla4progress (Reply #53)

Mon Mar 16, 2020, 04:42 PM

66. I think it's deaths per 100,000 persons. n/t

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Original post)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 12:08 AM

72. actual numbers do not support this theory

The chance of someone with symptomatic Covid-19 dying varied by age, confirming other studies.

For those aged 15 to 44, the fatality rate was 0.5%, though it might have been as low as 0.1% or as high as 1.3%.

For people 45 to 64, the fatality rate was also 0.5%, with a possible low of 0.2% and a possible high of 1.1%.

For those over 64, it was 2.7%, with a low and high estimate of 1.5% and 4.7%.

The chance of serious illness from coronavirus infection in younger people was so low, the scientists estimate a fatality rate of zero.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/lower-coronavirus-death-rate-estimates/

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Response to Laelth (Original post)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 09:00 AM

76. Unlike 1918 we do have immunosuppressive

drugs to combat cytokine storm.

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Response to marybourg (Reply #76)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 09:28 AM

78. And that's a good thing.

Note that the OP attempts to explain why so many young people died during the 1918 pandemic. It appears that we actively selected transmission of more virulent strains of that virus. The OP suggests containing, rather than transmitting, more virulent strains. That should greatly reduce fatalities among the young—people who are more susceptible to Cytokine Storm reactions.

Thank you for the response.

-Laelth

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Response to Laelth (Original post)

Thu Mar 19, 2020, 08:15 PM

88. k and r

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Response to Laelth (Original post)

Sat Mar 21, 2020, 11:18 AM

91. kick

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Response to Laelth (Original post)

Sat Mar 21, 2020, 03:06 PM

93. Meanwhile, yesterday on the news they still showed idiots doing normal spring break activities

Crowds of late teens and 20 somethings were massive and nobody gave a shit.

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