The statistical fatality rate has risen again to 8%

[defacto7]

The fatality rate worldwide of all cases with an outcome rose twice in the last week from 6% to 7% and now to 8%. The total number of active cases worlwide rose approximately 17% since yesterday.

Statistics are indicators of the trend not necessarily the final number. The fatality rate is trending up, way up as is the number of active cases.

[stopdiggin]

1. China is not reporting anything like these numbers

Or numbers that suggest these final outcomes. Using statistical study on incomplete reporting is .. misleading.

[defacto7]

3. I'm using the epidemiological standard.

They're not my numbers, they're the WHO calculations for predicting the trend. China is not the major contributer to those figures.

[stopdiggin]

4. No. There are many misunderstandings related to

the numbers .. and what they actually mean.
(And while I don't attribute any malice in your case .. there are those that are looking for a worst case scenario .. because that is what drives the news, and the all important clicks.)

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext

However, these mortality rate estimates are based on the number of deaths relative to the number of confirmed cases of infection, which is not representative of the actual death rate; patients who die on any given day were infected much earlier, and thus the denominator of the mortality rate should be the total number of patients infected at the same time as those who died. Notably, the full denominator remains unknown because asymptomatic cases or patients with very mild symptoms might not be tested and will not be identified. Such cases therefore cannot be included in the estimation of actual mortality rates, since actual estimates pertain to clinically apparent COVID-19 cases.

It is clearly impossible to render an accurate mortality rate .. without knowing what the real infection rate is. And this data might not be known with any accuracy for .. years?

[defacto7]

5. As explained it's the trend.

Your argument is not incorrect but you keep returning to a point already settled in my op. The statitical rate does not represent the final number. To continue, the final rate will never be known until its all over. But the trend is how the estimated death rate is determined. All there is is an estimate. When the statistical rate was 6% a week ago the estimate of the death rate was 3.4%. When the trend rose to 7% the estimate rose to 3.7%. There is no word yet from WHO what the new estimate is since the trend hit 8% but we'll see. To reiterate, the stat fatality rate used to determine the trend which is in turn used with other speculation and opinions of epidemiologists to estimate the death rate. That fatality rate which shows the trend is the percentage of deaths in cases with an outcome. Cases with an outcome are the number of recovered cases plus the number of deaths. That is the only statistical number that is rational since you cannot count cases without an outcome because you don't know if they'll survive or not.
So, if the estimated death rate was 3.7% when the stats were 7% then I'd imagin the estimated rate will be higher, but that's not for me to determine.
As far as not knowing how many cases are unknown through lack of testing, that is unknowable now or later. We don't know if it's a large number of not; it's purely in the area of massive speculation that takes us into territory that would mean we may as well negate all data collection and not try to find the trends at all lest the figures hurt someone's hopes and dreams. I won't go there. It's a figure experts will have to argue over. Until then any reason to use it in a calculation is rather useless in finding an actual numeric trend.
All we do know by the data is that the fatality rate has increased, by the numbers, 2% in a week compared to the previous identical calculation method. That's a hell of an upward trend. And I'll leave the estimates to better minds than mine.

Edit: your quote says "estimates are based on the number of deaths relative to the number of confirmed cases of infection.."

Not exactly correct... it's relative to the number of recovered cases, not confirmed cases. Confirmed cases would make it irrational.

[Generic Brad]

2. On the flip side, I expect to see the worldwide fertility rate to increase in around 9 months

With a large number of people homebound and bored due to a lack of social interaction, there will inevitably be more happening behind closed doors.