After 2 months who will run the electric plants? Thx in advance

[uponit7771]

Last edited Sun Mar 15, 2020, 03:14 PM - Edit history (1)

After 2 months who will run the electric plants? Thx in advance

We'll need to start asking this question if we don't have unfettered testing within two weeks.

If we DO get unfettered testing within 2 weeks to a month then it'll take another month minimum to test everyone


p.s.

Unless people put themselves in a hasmat suite to go to work even if they feel fine with CV19 they can't work around other humans.

p.s.

The reason we need unfettered testing is because of the incubation period, if everyone is tested now we have a baseline ... EVERYONE ... if we test only symptomatic we ... STAY ... behind the curve into everyone getting it because of the R0 number.

Check my logic here, because we're so behind on testing (yes, in 2 - 4 weeks we'll be further behind than Wuhan China) if we test only those who have symptoms then in two weeks we're running a whole new set test again because of the incubation period.


Regards

EDIT: People ... think... they can't run a power plant from their houses with CV19 even if you feel fine!!

[Newest Reality]

1. Immune Utility Robots?

[uponit7771]

2. Hmmmmm, that's not a bad idea ... easier to clean and distribute food.

[Newest Reality]

4. After that presser...

You know the one that had a long,commercial segment extolling the wonders and help of Corporate America, I would imagine that the Captains of Industry will be on that lickty-split!

You bet!

[uponit7771]

13. +1, they don't give a damn about us at all. There's enough wealthy people in the US to buy test

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

3. Not everybody will be dead or hospitalized. There will be employee shortages

and quarantines but there will still be people to run things, at least at a basic level.

[uponit7771]

5. How? People will be sick with CV19 ... again, if we don't have unfettered testing in 2 weeks we

... don't have people well enough for anything.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

9. Even Italy still has electricity.

[uponit7771]

15. in 2 months at their rate do you think they will still have electricity? thx in advance

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

16. I have no idea. It might depend on whether their rate slows as it did in China.

[uponit7771]

21. China made people work the plants, we can't do that with sick people here IE the question.

[jberryhill]

29. Djever look at the parking lot..

...outside your local coal, hydro or nuclear generating station?

Go to Google satellite view and have a look at how small it is.

[uponit7771]

31. That's doesn't address the question and we're worse off than Wuhan at this point because our leaders

... leadership is sick in the head

[jberryhill]

32. The White House is not running power plants

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

34. And thank God for that.

Trump is Homer Simpson.

[uponit7771]

39. The bosses who do wont let those with CV19 come in contact with those who don't have it either.

... Read the post down thread, this is already the case.

[jberryhill]

14. It's not going to bother most people

Even if they become infected, MOST people are going to be just fine.

There will be some bad cases, some really bad cases, and some fatal cases.

But most people are going to be fine - even if they do contract an infection.

Do you know they put airbags and seatbelts in cars, even though very few of them actually crash?

[uponit7771]

17. They can't run the plant from their house, are people thinking this through? You get sick you go

... inside and isolated.

PERIOD

Even if you feel good.

[jberryhill]

26. No

They go to work, work with similarly asymptomatic people, and are immune in a relatively short period of time.

That’s not even a “plan”. That’s simply what happens.

If you do not have a critical job, then stay home, and stay away from those who do.

Yes, people are thinking this through.

Do you notice that nobody in China or Italy is losing utilities?

Again, this is not Omega Man. The population is not going to be decimated.

[uponit7771]

33. You get tested sick with CV19 you go home and stay ... period. Maybe I'm asking the question wrong

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

37. If you have no or minimal symptoms you won't be tested.

So you'll assume you don't have the bug and you'll go to work as usual. You might infect other people, of course, but most of them won't get very sick either, if at all, and they'll keep working too. People won't self-quarantine unless they know they have it.

[uponit7771]

40. That's not the question, I said UNFETTERED meaning everyone gets tested seeing we're so far

... behind who has what.

Yes, EVERYONE at this point because of the long incubation period and we're so far behind testing or am I missing something here?

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

44. That's not going to happen. Even people with symptoms can't get tested in some places.

Don't scare people by overreacting. We will have electricity.

[uponit7771]

47. Sigh, then we need to think about running without electricity cause if we only test those right

... now with symptoms then we're behind the curve.

Yes, in 2-4 weeks we'll behind Wuhan China's testing which at that point was unfettered

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

50. We are not going to lose electricity, as has been explained ad nauseam.

But I'll try again:

1. Power plants are mostly automated and require few employees.
2. Most people who get the virus have few or no symptoms.
3. People with few or no symptoms don't get tested.
4. If you don't have significant symptoms and haven't been tested you won't know you have it.
5. If you don't think you have it you'll go to work.
6. If you go to your job at the power plant it will keep producing electricity.

If that's not clear enough then I give up.

[smirkymonkey]

62. Thank YOU!

Makes perfect sense to me.

[cwydro]

120. Poster seems determined to have a panic attack about electricity outages..

Despite evidence to the contrary.

[jberryhill]

56. No, I do not need to think about running a power plant

And neither do you.

But having had some exposure to energy systems in the course of studying electrical engineering, and having some nodding familiarity with how the electrical grid is run, I believe (a) this is not a major area of concern and (b) those responsible for the science-driven engineering management of the electrical grid - including human factors affecting it - are extremely good at making statistically valid choices to maintain reliability.

[emmaverybo]

101. +++++++++++++.

[jberryhill]

49. You are free to believe we are doomed

But someone who is asymptomatic has no reason to get tested. Their immune response will simply take care of it without them ever knowing.

Power plants are all part of a large system that has a shitload of excess generating capacity. Lots of plants can go offline, and are offline at any time, with no problem whatsoever.

A lot of industry is slowing down. Industry uses a lot of the load in the first place.

So, base load is going down, increasing the excess generating capacity.

If someone is sick, yes they go home. They get better and they come back. Elsewhere you said something about there being “no cure”. For most people there indeed is a cure - their immune system.

The entire staff capable of running 50% of the plants on the grid are simply not going to be out of service at the same time.

And, yes, there are plants, such as some hydro dams, which can actually be operated remotely.

There are ways of rationing power, which is not uncommon during hot days under unusual circumstances. The recent rolling blackouts in CA had more to do with distribution resources and not generating capacity.

But there is a lot of cushion built into the system in terms of excess generating capacity.

What you might want to do is to take a look at the EIA website. Compare average consumption to peak capacity, and get a grip on how much capacity can be (and is) offline at any time.

[uponit7771]

74. What the !!? The president of the country is to this hour talking about someone emails and the ...

...sycophants "doctors" around him wont even happy path variables in their models so they can give a range in their answers to questions.

We. Are. Fucked ... proper fucked.

Of course the worst cases is possible and more probable than 2 weeks ago

[jberryhill]

80. The president does not run the electrical grid

[Generic Brad]

41. I'm doing my critical job entirely from home

So is the majority of my team. The few that are coming in are required to work in completely separate rooms so as to minimize contact.

Even if I were to come down with a mild case, I could still do my job from home. Most companies operate like this today.

It is brick and mortar stores and manufacturers that face the biggest risk.

[uponit7771]

76. I have cousins who are line workers, Here's what I'm hearing from them (inside)

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13102343

Something just like this ... I'm more trying to warn people and get people thinking

[Tipperary]

96. Don't get in the way of a good panic.

Come on now.

[jberryhill]

116. Yeah, I don't know what I was thinking.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

20. Yup. This isn't the zombie apocalypse.

Obviously it will be bad for those who become sick and can't get treated because the hospitals are maxed out, but that won't be everybody or even a large percentage of the population. Yes, that sucks a whole lot if it's you or a family member but I don't expect that the entire country will suddenly be plunged into the Middle Ages. The situation is bad enough without scaring people with hysterical predictions.

[jberryhill]

22. Let me see if I can put this another way

If a million people are killed in the US, that would be an unprecedented catastrophe.

That would also be one out of every 330 people.

If something happens to one out of every 330 people, what would that mean to your workplace, your family, or your social circle?

[uponit7771]

25. Its not the dead or hospitalized its those who are sick that will need to be isolated for as long as

... they have the virus.

There's no cure for the virus !!

That means 6 months to a year

[jberryhill]

27. Containment is not the strategy here

We are well past containment.

[uponit7771]

35. Not everyone has CV19 so those KNOWINGLY do will be isolated.

[jberryhill]

51. Yah, they don't stay there permanently either

Which is part of the point of spreading it out.

Immune people will be rotating back in on a regular basis.

[uponit7771]

65. There's no immunity to CV19, there are cases in Japan with reinftected people

[jberryhill]

77. You are worked into a lather

Statistical outliers will happen.

There is no evidence that in most instances people will not retain immunity to the virus.

“There are cases in Japan” doesn’t prove anything which is statistically meaningful. There are cases of false positive test results, and cases of false negative test results too. You do anything a million times and you get some “one in a million” results.

If you are unshakeably attached to an Omega Man fantasy, then get yourself a generator and a huge unsafe tank of gasoline which will likely kill you before any loss of electrical power does.

[uponit7771]

81. You're not and that's alarming

[jberryhill]

83. You are drawing conclusions about...

..how selected facts apply to a system about which you have no comprehension how it operates.

Anyway, I’m suited up for a bike ride. You have yourself a great afternoon.

[jberryhill]

117. I don't run a power plant.

Having studied, and taught, electrical engineering at a local university, however, I do know a few people who do in fact have management positions with the regional electrical grid operator and I do know a few who work for the primary generating company here. I am aware of the quite advanced remote monitoring and control capabilities they have, along with the huge collection of contingency plans they maintain, and they inspire more confidence in me than some random Internet person who is worried about stuff they have no control over.

[obamanut2012]

125. No one should be in a lather

JFC calm down, and quit spreading so much panic and misinformation.

[uponit7771]

87. We'll see, Chinese government admitting Wuhan wont be 100% till the end of April. We're behind the

... testing of Wuhan at this point

[jberryhill]

92. And yet, they still have power

You seem not to grasp that part of the planning and management of high reliability systems involves gaming out and preparing for many contingencies.

[uponit7771]

95. Because they got to testing and isolation quicker than we did ... right? tia

[obamanut2012]

124. People are NOT becoming reinfected by this, stop spreading this misinformation

You are WRONG. Factually wrong. STOP IT.

There is immunity, people who get it will be back at work in two or three weeks, exce[t for a small percentage.

[uponit7771]

130. Cases in China of reinfections (LA Times link inside)

I know there are people who aren't looking at this from China but we know people from there.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-13/china-japan-korea-coronavirus-reinfection-test-positive

Wang, whose full name has not been disclosed for privacy reasons, is one of more than 100 reported cases of Chinese patients who have been released from hospitals as survivors of the new coronavirus — only to test positive for it a second time in the bewildering math of this mysterious illness.

It seems to be rare though, we'll see but I"m counting out herd immunity now, Johnson logic seems to be a little on the stupid side.

[StarryNite]

8. I agree.

They say 80% of the people who test positive don't even know they have it...not even a sniffle. I guess that's good and bad at the same time. But not everybody will be too sick to be able to work.

[uponit7771]

19. Those 80% will need to be isolated, are people thinking this through?!

[jberryhill]

28. But they won't be

You seem unduly anxious.

Have a peaceful day. I’m heading out for a bike ride, and I would suggest that if you have access to open space and fresh air, it will do you some good.

[uponit7771]

36. "But they won't be" ... this is a claim with nothing backing it up or no logical reasoning behind it

... seeing those who KNOWINGLY have CV19 are staying home.

[jberryhill]

118. And if all the operators test positive

Then there is not an issue with them working together.

It may come as a surprise to you that the people who run the grid also like to have electricity from it in their homes. They don’t live over on some other planet, and they are quite well aware of what needs to be done to keep the grid - and its immense reserve of excess generating capacity during an economic slowdown - operating.

I realize everyone likes to pretend they are Richard Dreyfus in Close Encounters, but in real life he would simply be another crazy person.

[cwydro]

121. Remember the panicky guy on Dave Letterman?

Somehow I’m reminded...

[Leghorn21]

6. I am personally thinking, yep, it could happen, upon - although, Wuhan never lost their

electricity?? (not that I heard, anyway)- but yeah, peanut butter and canned goods are not a terrible idea

If water goes, I guess I’ll have issues, I drink tap and I’m not stocked up..

I’m all about “worst case” scenarios now, because we don’t know what’s around the bend

Mail delivery, UPS etc - can they persevere? I dunno

Regards back, my friend!

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

11. As far as I know Italy, which is in dire straits, still has its electricity and running water.

[Leghorn21]

23. Right - I know I'm going too far with my doomsday thoughts, Ocelot - and of course I surely

hope our water and electric companies are more organized than tRump and Co...but yes, S Korea and Italy and I think China have all kept utilities up and running...may they continue to do so!!

[uponit7771]

66. Good point, I'll watch that area ... looks like things have not peaked there

[former9thward]

7. The same people that are running them now,

Generally industrial workers are not over 60 with pre-existing conditions.

[Brother Buzz]

10. They can work from home

[jberryhill]

12. Covid 19 won't incapacitate most people

Look, a lot of people are going to become infected. But that’s different from thinking that most people are going to be incapacitated by it.

If it kills a few percent, the raw number of dead people will be huge. It will still be a few percent. Another portion will have a bad time of it with some permanent injuries.

But, the greater number of people - the majority by far - will range from no symptoms at all, to relatively tolerable symptoms.

This is not like Omega Man.

[TexasProgresive]

18. I just heard a story this morning

A man got into his son's truck. The son works at a power plant and asked if Dad had been to Dallas. "No, why?" "If you had been I would have to self quarantine. A group came down from Big D yesterday and one tested positive. We've been told that if we come into contact with any recently from Dallas to self quarantine."

[uponit7771]

38. THANK YOU!! I don't think people are thinking this through. Those who have CV19 will be quarantined

... and that includes people who work at power plants

[TexasProgresive]

64. Evidently you just have to be exposed to someone from Dallas

Who might have Covid 19.

[Turbineguy]

24. The automation will run them.

Like it does now. There are actually very few people involved. And those that are involved are in the 80% who will have no or mild symptoms.

[uponit7771]

48. +1, thank you for the fact based answer

[captain queeg]

111. Wow. I guess we have nothing to worry about.

Based on???

[janterry]

30. Most will get sick and then get better

and return to work

[KY_EnviroGuy]

42. In two months, power plants will be OK, IMO.

Power plants have quite a cadre' of people who know the plant that can take over in emergencies. They've had to do that years ago during strikes. They can also fly in people from other plants.

Alternate people don't know these systems like the regular operators and auxiliaries and may experience more inadvertent shutdowns, but they can squeak by and communicate withe the sick ones by phone.

The largest risk for them is with maintenance people, who I feel are more likely to experience a contagion in their shops.

Remember too that the U.S. has a robust power grid that allows other plants to take the load when others go down. What we had best pray for is a mild spring storm season which wreaks havoc on the plants, the regional grid and local grids. Line crews could get stretched very thin.

KY.........

[sprinkleeninow]

93. ...

[KY_EnviroGuy]

99. Four to six months will be another issue....

Trump better get his shit together reeeeal fast.

KY............. ... ...

[brooklynite]

43. Power plants are largely automated...

...they don't require people to stand there shoveling coal. There are optimal staffing levels, but they can operate for the most part on a skeleton staff.

[beachbumbob]

45. not all workers will be sick all at once and many things can operate on skeleton crew

including power plants. But the food situation is way more critical and in 2 months who knows how bad we will have it

[uponit7771]

54. +1, that's where I got this question from. Grocery stores are being closed down if there's an ...

... infected staff member.

I'm thinking similar would happen to power stations but if there's a high level of automation then the computers will run them perfect.

[duforsure]

127. I agree

When I did work it was in a large oil refinery , during hurricanes also, and they would be very well prepared with employees staying in the plant until it all passed, even if some get sick they will have others ready to replace them. They had more than enough food available, and power plants should be adequately stocked up for this. Water treatment plants also will be critical systems that have to be protected, along with blood banks.

[totodeinhere]

46. I think that most people who work at electrical plants are young enough that they are not

in a high risk group. The people mostly at risk are old enough that they are probably retired and not working for a utility. The average age of deaths in China from this virus is about 80.

[uponit7771]

60. Spain showed us that youth doesn't matter, its underlying conditions that got the older people sicke

... sicker but the young were no less ammune

[totodeinhere]

61. But that doesn't change the fact that the average age for deaths in China is 80.

That's assuming we can believe those stats of course.

[uponit7771]

63. The higher death rate in Spain over the last week because they held mass people events. That's

... what's scaring Saudi Arabia now, they've gone into some level of quarantine.

[ecstatic]

52. I've been concerned about this

I can handle lock down, but I can't handle a major power outage.

[gollygee]

53. Not everybody is getting very sick. There will be people well enough to work. nt

[uponit7771]

57. in 2 - 4 weeks we'll be behind Wuhan China's testing stage and way behind SK and Singapores ... the

... countries who economies haven't shut down

[sarisataka]

55. No one, but shortly after there will be no need for electricity

As we approach 100% testing, we will have 80% of people quarantined. The remaining 20% will also be in isolation because they are caring for a person who is sick or have been in contact with a person who was infected so they are a potential carrier.

All utilities will come to a halt as all workers have to stay home for one reason or the other. People will eat through their food stocks but will not have anywhere to go to replenish as grocery stores close from lack of workers. Also since truckers too will be in isolation, the stores will essentially be empty.

Sometime in the future, alien explorers will find the earth and study it with great puzzlement. They will find an apparently intelligent race that had a complex infrastructure of public utilities and food production all locked themselves in their homes, over a relatively short time period and allowed themselves to starve to death.



Have a nice day

[jberryhill]

58. Heh

I know, right?

[uponit7771]

59. Math matters and so does reading the original question about testing, bookmarked

[sarisataka]

67. I am quite good at math and thoroughly read the question

I did account for testing in my answer.

We get "unfettered" testing however a test is only a snapshot. Those who do not have the disease are only clear for that day, what about 4 weeks later? They will have to be tested again because even if they still show no symptoms they may have picked up the virus and are now in the group that need to be isolated.

Even with testing we cannot know who is immune and who doesn't have it right now. The only solution to that corundum is to administer weekly (or even daily) tests or isolate everyone, shut everything down and hope everyone recovers to end the disease before we all die.

[uponit7771]

70. In both your post your logic skips phrase "unfettered testing", either way snark noted & bookmarked

[jberryhill]

85. You've been "noted and bookmarked"

Uh-oh.

[sarisataka]

88. I shall endeavor to

Maintain the appropriate level of concern

[uponit7771]

110. Yep, some of what I asked about in OP is already happening (link) ... but keep snark at 10

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213102185#post18

[jberryhill]

114. Oh bullshit

One third hand story does not equate to the power grid going down.

You want to get the “last laugh of the apocalypse” or something, but you have absolutely no information from people whose job it is to actually run these systems, and whose management (unlike the political system) consists of people with relevant expertise.

You want to quarantine every power plant worker in the country? Fine. Haul some trailers to the plant and quarantine them there.

But you have NO explanation yet for how this inexplicably has not happened in Italy, and your claim about “forced” power plant engineers in China is simply something you made up.

In the meantime, I did manage to get in 11 miles with some great scenery....

Link to tweet

As long as you are “bookmarking and noting” for the greatest “I told you so” ever, do you have an update on these “works in progress” you were so sure about a while back:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211456498#post48

[uponit7771]

115. Strawman, never said it did but.... I know people who are work in this ...

... industry know there's no elasticity in their plant workforce, they don't plan for it.

This persons story fits the other stories we've been passed about people haven't to stay home with loved ones etc.

I don't care about being correct, I'm just trying to make people who are wanting to be prepared up on information.

I'm buying a couple 5 gallon totes of gasoline ... that doesn't sound too alarmist no?

tia

[cwydro]

122. Buy a generator.

I have one, and I seriously doubt it’ll be used for anything other than a bad storm knocking out power for a time.

Calm down.

[demmiblue]

68. !

[mr_lebowski]

82. Started great but the denouement left a bit to be desired ...

Not even any cannibalism, let alone zombies?

Kinda disappointed ...

[sarisataka]

90. I did consider cannibalism

But rejected the idea as I assumed people would not want to eat infected corpses

So far I have not heard of people turning into zombies. That would actually simplify things as there are many instructional videos available for how to handle a zombie apocalypse.

[mr_lebowski]

98. I see you're new at this ...

Eating the infected human corpses is what causes the mutation that brings on the zombie apocalypse ... duh?!?

[sarisataka]

104. Damn, I got it all wrong

Next are you going to tell me my 800 rolls of TP will not prevent a respiratory disease?

[TwilightZone]

69. Not sure how threads like this accomplish anything.

Just an idea, but perhaps you could do some research into how power plants operate, how automated they are, how many employees they require, what their contingency plans are, and whether or not places like Wuhan still have electricity, before assuming the apocalypse is coming without any basis for the assertion.

[uponit7771]

72. Automation still needs oversight and intervention, look if we don't get to this point that'll be

a good thing but being 1 month behind Wuhan China's testing phase I'm betting we're closer to the OP than not.

[sprinkleeninow]

97. Not addressing the power plant subject, but kinda do lean toward what you say regarding

testing for the virus. I may be off base scientifically, but that's my take.

This whole horribly-gone-wrong scene is 1000% on the 'hands' of the 'it'/'him' and his workers of iniquity. Haven't witnessed any one of them standing up for decency.

[Hortensis]

71. On the plus side (bizarrely), the federal government does not

run our power plants. They're almost all private enterprise and largely regulated by their states.

A major energy organization estimates 40% of plant workers could become ill and advises contingency plans be made. Nuclear plant managers of course already have plans for epidemic disruption by epidemic disease. How good their plans and implementation will turn out to be, we don't know, I'm guessing extremely mixed, but we can know the energy industry as a whole has been considering this scenario for literally decades.

[uponit7771]

73. +1, do you have a link to the the 40% stat? thx in advance.

[Hortensis]

86. I think it was this one, though I was browsing around

on power plants and coronavirus. Sheltering in place for two weeks and possibly significantly longer without electricity (and running water for sure in our case) would be very different from with.

https://www.powermag.com/

[madville]

75. Electric Utility Workers

Even if they get sick, most people will recover in a couple of weeks.

[uponit7771]

78. There's no immunity to CV19, there are cases in Japan with reinfected people

[madville]

84. And?

Not everyone will get it at the same time. 99% of people under 60 (the vast majority of the workforce) will be fine for the most part judging by the current statistics.

[uponit7771]

94. The point about unfettered testing is everyone who needs or wants a test can get one since we're so

... behind the testing phase of Wuhan for instance.

In Wuhan they got answers back in 4 hours, .... yes ... we're that far behind.

People who have the disease should be isolated from others, those who don't should hunker down and clean their internal space and then the govern cleans the external spaces ... about a week and then we can get on with life.

That's pretty much what happened in Wuhan

That's not happening in here, ... our president is tweeting about emails ... literally.

So

Our R0 etc is going to be abysmal relative to other places, like Italy (which is abysmal), that have unfettered testing.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13102343

this is another reason I'm asking this question

[obamanut2012]

133. Noone has been reinfected, no one can get reinfected

It was proven this is false. Quit spreading scaremongering misinformation.

[uponit7771]

134. This is 100% false on its face, you need to keep up with your responses (link)

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13113542

[flibbitygiblets]

79. It'll be more of a problem for people in rural areas where power lines go down a lot

Falling trees mostly, sometimes from idiot drunk drivers taking out power poles. I live at the top of an 8-mile long road, all above-ground power lines next to hundreds of acres of huge old trees. Every winter the lines go down at least a few times. Usually someone is sent out to fix it in a few hours, a few days in worst cases. We have a generator just in case, but once we run out of propane, that's it. And it's the only way to get water out of the well too.

I am not holding my breath that when those lines go down again, a crew is coming out to fix it when only a few thousand people are impacted.

[uponit7771]

89. +1, maybe I should've added line workers too because people think power plant they think just the ..

... part that makes the electricity not rest of it.

[keithbvadu2]

91. Food, gasoline, telephone, cellphone, trains, airports, repairs,,, much, much more.

Food, gasoline, telephone, cellphone, trains, airports, repairs,,, much, much more.

Manufacturing and distribution.

It's all related.

[uponit7771]

105. +1, right! I had only addressed direct sickness of workers but what if their loved one gets sick

... etc etc.

We're 1 - 2 months behind Wuhan testing at this point and our leadership is tweeting about emails.

I'm preparing for the worst and getting gas for the generator

[captain queeg]

100. I can tell you one thing: the organization I worked for which supplied a great deal of the region

Were chronically short staffed for plant operators. They never had full staffs, always relied on overtime to fill schedules. If you had 20-30% out sick it would get pretty hard to keep going safely.

[uponit7771]

108. Thx for this, I worked ops for decades and was always short, never any elasticity in staff

[captain queeg]

112. Hasn't changed. And not like you can just grab someone and turn over a plants operation

[uponit7771]

113. +1, they don't have back ups standing by

[captain queeg]

129. I noticed this thread still going. A lot of experts here...

Sounds like you’ve worked at the plant level as have I. Everyone else is talking theory I guess. With the region I worked it’s bare bones. Yeah there are lots of plans, none of them really worked out for real. I was on a group looking at the grid in the event of the cascadia subduction zone quake. Went through a high level exercise which was useless at the operational level. Management rubbed there hands and said well we got that figured out.

This doesn’t mean I think we’ll have major outages but I suppose it’s possible.

[uponit7771]

131. "Management rubbed there hands and said well we got that figured out." This is EXACTLY my experience

... in another industry of oversight and intervention when it comes to automation.

kinda like the guy on Lawrence said, they don't plan for a day where there's 100 extra beds needed or in this case 3 or 6 people missing and everyone else has to work 24 hour shifts.

I know linemen and they pull together during catastrophe by linemen are way more interchangeable than operation staff anywhere

[captain queeg]

132. Yeah there's operations and there's maintenance and never the twain will meet

The maintenance staff is much larger and more interchangeable. At our plants there was usually only one operator on the back shifts.

[MissB]

102. From what I've seen

Utilities are preparing various what-if scenarios- backups to the backups.

They’ve thought of this.

[The Genealogist]

103. I'm sorry you are this alarmed about the virus

I know it is scary. I have what-if scenarios running through my head all the time, mostly because I don't think there is enough being done on the whole to eliminate activities and events that put people in close contact. I've eliminated all the activities outside of my home that I can.

Please, though, think rationally about this: power plants take few people to operate them. There is a LOT of automation. In the space of the next two months, there will be people who don't yet have the virus that will get it, recover, and be back on the job. I think the chance of everyone working in even a single power plant all being out sick at the same time and the thing shutting down is pretty low. Even if that DID happen, at least someone from another facility could keep the thing running.

[uponit7771]

106. I'm shocked everyone else isn't this alarmed. We're 1 - 2 months behind where Wuhan was at

... this phase.

Just take Wuhan outbreak and add a month of doing much of nothing ...

Then have one of their provincial leaders start texting about emails, we'd think they're nuts.

Here's a good example of what I'm talking about happening NOW ... this day, not two mnths from now.


https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213102185#post18

[jberryhill]

119. At any time, many facilities are offline from lack of demand

The grid allows capacity to be brought online or taken offline on demand.

People don’t realize that electricity generation is not like other manufacturing. As much as needed is all that is produced. Absent systems with peak storage, it all gets used (or radiated) as soon as it is produced.

There’s a lot of slack and redundancy in the system. We are not in a/c season, and industrial demand just nosedived.

[zackymilly]

107. Nuclear is forever! Mwhahahahaha! n/t

[uponit7771]

109. +1

[lunatica]

123. The people who survive after being sick with the Coronavirus will be able to

return to work. That’s most people who get sick.

People will die, but most will live.

[Throck]

126. Otto

Otto Mation.

You'd be surprised how few people run modern plants.

With people staying home from work there will be a big power production down turn so in the odd chance a plant goes off line other plants can pick up the slack.

Many plants have bunk rooms, showers, food stash so people can shelter over if needed. They did this for hurricanes, tornadoes etc.

[samnsara]

128. its not the living dead..there can still be healthy humans to run the plants..i dont think its..

...an especially crowded..