COVID-19 - the numbers as of now - exponentially escalating in the US

[NRaleighLiberal]

3773 cases, 69 deaths

March 1 91 cases
March 8 573 cases
March 15 3773 cases
March 22....???? 20K or more?

Italy in comparison

March 1 - 1700
March 8 - 7400
March 15 - 20600, 1800 deaths

wonder what ol' Devin Nunez thinks about that as he sits at a pub and has a drink? Hoax? Fake News?

[uponit7771]

1. Without unfettered testing we don't know who has Coronavirus !! Then we need to isolate, hunker down

... and clean.

We're nearly a month behind Wuhan China at this point.

This is being done to affect the 2020 election

[dchill]

4. I don't see how this doesn't affect more Trumplodytes...

...than libtards. I just can't - they think it's a hoax. They really do, and it's really not.

[uponit7771]

5. Most of the people who it'll affect are blue AREA voters. The rural areas will go fairly unscathed

[dalton99a]

8. +1.

[dchill]

10. You have a point.

But it may just take a little longer to spread out from port-located population centers.

[Turin_C3PO]

11. It'll get to the red areas.

Give it time. Even in the Black Death of 1348, the plague reached every remote and isolated corner of Europe (except Iceland and Finland). And this was centuries before advanced transportation.

[uponit7771]

14. In 8 months it'll be mostly blue areas, I think this was the plan all along. Lack of testing hurts

... America to the nth degree but his cult members will love that he'll win.

Just damn, this is horrible

[NRaleighLiberal]

15. it is hitting red areas, but the population is so low

this map shows how it is concentrated in high pop areas, but it is scattering about the country

https://infection2020.com/

scroll the map out to see the whole country

[NickB79]

20. Rural areas are hospital deserts

If my 80-yr old grandmother needed an ambulance, it would take 45 min to get there and 45 min back.

She'd be dead in her deep red Trump county if things go south.

[uponit7771]

21. True if things get ambulatory they're screwed but 80% will just get sick and have to quarantine and

... it'll be the blue areas that'll take the brunt of this.

I truly think this is Red Don's plan

[dchill]

2. Your premise is that Devin Nunes thinks?

[NRaleighLiberal]

3. good one!

[OAITW r.2.0]

6. The multiples/week are important to track. Enlightening......

[cos dem]

7. Our growth rate looks to be about 6.3x per week

according to these figures.
Italy shows 4.4x from week 1 to 2, and 2.8x from week 2 to 3.
That could be a good sign that Italy's getting a handle on it.
If we maintain our 6.3x due to our own negligence, then yep, we're in for trouble. If we can bring that down, we'll know we are finally making a difference with our controls and limited interactions.

Where did you get these numbers? I'd like to see daily totals to get better confidence on exactly where everyone's headed.
The focus seems to be so much on totals (which are important), but not so much on the rate of growth, which I think is much more important to determining if you're doing the right thing or not.

[NRaleighLiberal]

9. two sources

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en (graph at the top - hover over dates)

and

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

you can click on countries to get daily growth details

[cos dem]

22. I scraped the source data from Worldometers, and found something interesting.

(Apologies first. I have a plot, but I don't know how to show it here. I don't have a convenient place to post it on the outside web where I can link to it.)

First, I took the total daily case count, which I assume to be the total number of cases recorded, including any active cases, recoveries, or deaths.

Then, I calculated the daily accrual rate, which I define as the rate at which new cases occur each day, given how many cases you had the day before. So, for an accrual rate of 0.3, if you had 1000 cases on day 1, you'd have 1300 on day 2, 1690 on day 3, 2197 on day 4, etc. Using the total cases each day, the accrual rate for each day is (day N+1/day N)-1.

Finally, I plot the daily rate on a log scale. Here's what I see:
1. The uncontrolled daily rate is about 0.3 to 0.5 (with a whole lot of day/day variation). This is where China was in mid/late Jan, and were we and Europe are now.
2. China's rate has been falling steadily since 22 Jan. Today it is about 0.0002. This is 3 orders of magnitude (1000x) better than most of the rest of us!
3. S Korea's rate is just over 0.01, so about 10x better than us.
4. None of the rest of us show any noticeable trend away from 0.3.
5. Numbers for Italy look to be about 0.2 over the last few days. Not long enough to be a trend, but hopefully it will keep up.

Conclusions:
1. China has their shit together
2. S Korea mostly has their shit together
3. W Europe and USA are still trying to locate their assholes.

According to some jackass, we're doing great. I think he's full of shit.

Unfortunately, due to the long incubation period, and the fact that incubators are also spreaders, it will be awhile before the effect of the closures over this past weekend show up in the numbers.

[Takket]

12. those numbers are essentially meaningless..........

like seeing 1 ant in your kitchen and thinking that is the only one there is.

drumpf intentionally handcuffed the CDC and testing for weeks while the virus spread. so as a few test kits trickle around, and results take two days to return, and many people with no idea they are sick spread the virus, we are only reporting a fraction of the actual infections.

[NRaleighLiberal]

13. I wouldn't say meaningless- they do get one's attention - but yes, only the tip of the iceberg

as you indicate.

[localroger]

18. When you see the tip of an iceberg

...you don't necessarily know just how much iceberg is down there under the water. But you can be pretty sure there's a lot just because it's an iceberg.

[cos dem]

23. Even more, if you know the density of ice, you can actually estimate how much is below the water.

The utility in the numbers is not necessarily in the raw data, but in the trends. I don't see too much online analysis of trends. I just ran one a bit ago and posted the results up-thread.

[leighbythesea2]

16. Just saw this

Tweet...
I hope states act assertively to close everything non essential. Like tomorrow.

This guy wins the internet for me tonught...

Link to tweet

?s=19

[Jarqui]

17. Reading that there is another shortage: swabs for testing ...

I think the US numbers are grossly understated.
I fear it is going to get like Italy and hope it doesn't.

Death rate on that one site was down to 6% - now back up to 8%.
I do not care to debate their methodology - they're awful numbers no matter how they're spun.
The Italian doctors also worry about survivors who were critically ill because of how damaged their lungs are.

Please take care of yourselves. Only go out to do what is absolutely necessary and try to follow advice as best as you are able

[UpInArms]

19. Ohio Department of Health believes 100,000 Ohioans are carrying coronavirus

COLUMBUS, Ohio — More than 100,000 people are believed to be infected with the coronavirus, according statements by officials with the Ohio Department of Health during a Thursday afternoon news conference.

That number accounts for around 1% of Ohio’s population.

"We know now, just the fact of community spread says that at least 1%, at the very least 1% of our population is carrying this virus in Ohio today," said Dr. Amy Acton, Director of ODH. "We have 11.7 million people."

According to the Governor Mike DeWine’s Office and the ODH, cases are expected to double every six days.

"Whenever you know of 2 people that have it due to community spread, then you can assume that 1% of your population has it," said ODH Press Secretary Melanie Amato, citing a 2017 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report from the CDC.

More at

https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/continuing-coverage/coronavirus/ohio-department-of-health-says-100-000-ohioans-are-carrying-coronavirus