"Singapore ALMOST had the virus contained... so close, but now it has taken off again."

[Dennis Donovan]

Link to tweet

Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing

Singapore ALMOST had the virus contained... so close, but now it has taken off again. SG growth at least not exponential. Total: 243 Discharged: 109 Critical: 13 #COVID19 https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/four-more-cases-discharged-seventeen-new-cases-of-covid-19-infection-confirmed …



10:24 AM - Mar 16, 2020

[frazzled]

1. This suggests that we should extend

closures, distancing, hygienic measures, etc. beyond the point when the curve is flattened.

[Mike 03]

2. Not saying this is what happened in Singapore, but we should probably

be careful not to grow content with the slightest bit of positive news that new infections are plateauing and revert prematurely to our normal social habits.

[Dennis Donovan]

5. Yes. Beware of false senses-of-security.

This won't be over soon...

[defacto7]

3. This would be a good study to see what they have done, not done and

their time line as they go forward. Singapore is a structured country in ways that would help pin down cause and effect.

[MLAA]

4. Wondering how much , if any, is due to relapses / reinfections of the same people

who previously were considered recovered. And how many if any were from being near those who recovered.

[uponit7771]

13. +1, Japan had someone who was reinfected

[Ace Rothstein]

6. Singapore is a good example of why summer temps probably won't help stop this thing.

[Dennis Donovan]

7. Yes. That's the frightening thing about it.

It won't "magically disappear in the spring".

[scrabblequeen40]

8. +1000. I just had this discussion with a Magat

who thinks this is going to go away when summer rolls around.... because Trump said so and 'everyone knows flu season ends when warm weather is here.'

[Ace Rothstein]

9. I hope it does slow in the summer but you can't expect it at this point.

They are seeing cases in warm weather locations currently.

[Igel]

10. The presence of cases isn't the point.

It's the frequency. Summer colds and flu still happen. In summer the rates of both decline, but cases still happen.

So the appropriate information is the rate of transmission in warm versus cold climates.

[Ace Rothstein]

11. Cases are jumping in the southern hemisphere just like elsewhere.

Brazil for example.

March 10: 34 confirmed cases.
March 12: 73 confirmed cases.
March 13: 98 confirmed cases.
March 14 121 confirmed cases.

I'm seeing that they are over 200 now.

[uponit7771]

12. There is no immunity to the virus so far

[Igel]

14. This is/was the concern in China, as well.

You use distancing (compelled or voluntary) to slow the spread, but until the last case is closed and all traces on surfaces are eradicated, it can resume spreading.

It started with one person. It can resume with one person.

The only thing that changes over time is feedback effects from the number of immune people that an infected person comes in contact with.