The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming

[babylonsister]

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/?fbclid=IwAR1oA5szJlC7ggkMJgp2Jhv0_s23QSRgmU_1iZAGM4QNjuHkihTh0berk1g

Steven Levy
Science
03.19.2020 02:47 PM
The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
Epidemiologist Larry Brilliant, who warned of pandemic in 2006, says we can beat the novel coronavirus—but first, we need lots more testing.


snip//

How will we know when we’re through this?

The world is not going to begin to look normal until three things have happened. One, we figure out whether the distribution of this virus looks like an iceberg, which is one-seventh above the water, or a pyramid, where we see everything. If we're only seeing right now one-seventh of the actual disease because we're not testing enough, and we're just blind to it, then we're in a world of hurt. Two, we have a treatment that works, a vaccine or antiviral. And three, maybe most important, we begin to see large numbers of people—in particular nurses, home health care providers, doctors, policemen, firemen, and teachers who have had the disease—are immune, and we have tested them to know that they are not infectious any longer. And we have a system that identifies them, either a concert wristband or a card with their photograph and some kind of a stamp on it. Then we can be comfortable sending our children back to school, because we know the teacher is not infectious.

And instead of saying "No, you can't visit anybody in nursing home," we have a group of people who are certified that they work with elderly and vulnerable people, and nurses who can go back into the hospitals and dentists who can open your mouth and look in your mouth and not be giving you the virus. When those three things happen, that's when normalcy will return.

Is there in any way a brighter side to this?

Well, I'm a scientist, but I'm also a person of faith. And I can't ever look at something without asking the question of isn't there a higher power that in some way will help us to be the best version of ourselves that we could be? I thought we would see the equivalent of empty streets in the civic arena, but the amount of civic engagement is greater than I've ever seen. But I'm seeing young kids, millennials, who are volunteering to go take groceries to people who are homebound, elderly. I'm seeing an incredible influx of nurses, heroic nurses, who are coming and working many more hours than they worked before, doctors who fearlessly go into the hospital to work. I've never seen the kind of volunteerism I'm seeing.

I don't want to pretend that this is an exercise worth going through in order to get to that state. This is a really unprecedented and difficult time that will test us. When we do get through it, maybe like the Second World War, it will cause us to reexamine what has caused the fractional division we have in this country. The virus is an equal opportunity infector. And it’s probably the way we would be better if we saw ourselves that way, which is much more alike than different.

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[GusBob]

1. If we have number 2 why do we need 3

Im not very bright but some of this doesnt make sense
The nursing home bit for instance. He seems to imply that normal people cant visit their family, only people with special badges

As for that higher power stuff, no polite comment

As for millennials delivering food great but did he see them on those florida beaches?

[genxlib]

3. I had the same general reaction to #3 as well

For what it is worth, the youngest Millennial are 24 so those kids on the beaches are mostly GenZ.

And they represent a small subset of kids out there. For every spring breaker there are other kids who are serious and helpful.

My daughter is 18 and we will be looking for opportunities like he describes. She even volunteered to babysit and she hates children. She is naturally kind and sympathetic but at this point she would do it just for the excuse to get out of the house.

[genxlib]

2. I thought #1 was pretty well established as an iceberg already

When China shut down and continued to see cases pop up, they new it was out there germinating.