A lot of businesses and jobs will disappear over the next few months, gone forever

[stopbush]

No matter how much $ the Feds pump into the economy, this pandemic is going to change the way people live, as well as their spending habits. We are going to see an uptick in savings, because people are going to be spooked for years about money and jobs being tight, just like they were after the Depression.

And if people aren’t spending, there will be a huge drop in the demand for goods and services, with the travel and hospitality industries hit hard. The arts will suffer greatly as patrons pull back on their philanthropy, causing budget and staff cuts. The market for big-ticket items like cars will go into deep recession.

We’re looking at 10-20 years of the nation being spooked by this health crisis, and that will lengthen the time it takes for the economy to fully recover.

[jimfields33]

1. Totally agree

This is a disaster that none of us can fathom fully yet I believe. Uncharted territory.

[evertonfc]

2. im moving to Costa Rica in 5 years. I'll de done here

[Windy City Charlie]

3. Agree

Get the feeling when we get through this that it's going to be like having to start all over again from scratch. Things are forever going to be different.

[HarlanPepper]

4. Really?

I thought we were in for good times. This is a major buzz kill.

[Skittles]

8. you think it's funny?

[HarlanPepper]

9. Is what funny?

[Skittles]

13. goodbye

[PJMcK]

77. In fairness, I think HarlanPepper made a good, if sarcastic, point

Trump told us we would be winning so much, we'd get tired of winning. Not only does that not make any sense, (real winners never get tired of winning; for example, ask any superior athlete), it certainly doesn't reflect America after 3-1/2 years with Trump as president.

His supporters have spent the past four years "owning the libs" with such taunts as, "So you hate Trump. How's your 401(k) doing?" My investments have dropped over 25% in the past month. "Hey, MAGAts, how're your investments hanging in there?!" Trump claimed the expanding economy was because of his policies. We've lost any gains that accrued in the past 3 years. Is that winning?

Perhaps HarlanPepper would have been clearer to indicate their sarcasm but it certainly didn't strike me as an attempt to be edgily funny.

Have a good week and be safe, Skittles.

[Takket]

5. 9 million people in restaurant industry

I think just about every non-chain privately owned restaurant is not going to reopen. At least half of those nine million jobs are gone for many years to come.

[meadowlander]

6. Lots of jobs will created as well, though.

There's no shortage of work that will need to be done. Look at Amazon hiring 100,000 additional workers and we haven't even gotten started yet. All the supermarkets will be hiring restocking and delivery people as well. The restaurants that can deliver will do better once people get over the initial paranoia and realise they don't know how/hate to cook for themselves. All the offices are doubling their cleaning staff. There will be a lot of temp work covering peoples' sick leave. There will be work in hospitals supporting medical staff or providing childcare so nurses can work extra hours. There will be work in manufacturing creating PPE, ventilators, covering the supply shortages that result from the global supply chain being disrupted.

The mobilisation for WWII brought us out of the Great Depression and there is no reason why a mobilisation to fight Covid-19 would not do the same.

This is 1938, not 2008. I feel for anyone who is facing uncertainty due to a job loss, but it's isn't going to be like the GFC where there are no jobs to be had for love or money for 2-3 years. America is undergoing a radical retooling and unfortunately people are going to have to spend some time doing jobs that aren't necessarily their first choice but at least they are going to be able to find work if they need it and put food on the table.

[stopdiggin]

7. interesting. cautiously optimistic.

I thought this a pretty good analysis. Hope you're right in your optimism.

[Calculating]

11. You think Amazon centers will stay open?

Just wait until the outbreaks begin there. Outside of that, I'd rather die than work someplace like Amazon where they treat employees more like robots than human beings.

[meadowlander]

16. People still need to get food somewhere.

Lots of people have a 2-4 week stockpile but this crisis is expected to last for 12-18 months so at some point either the whole country is going to start having all its food delivered to it or the supermarkets are going to have unpredictable rolling runs on items. All of my local supermarket chains are hiring hundreds of workers just to keep things on the shelves and be able to keep their grocery delivery services open.

I even saw that they local movie theatres are offering a service where they will bring popcorn and snacks to your house so you can enjoy them while you're watching Netflix at home.

Hopefully Amazon will be desperate enough to hire workers that they'll have a bit more bargaining power to get better conditions.

Covid-19 will create obstacles and inefficiencies in the system but that means more workers will need to be brought in to overcome them.

[mucifer]

28. I think truck drivers have essential jobs and that's how most food moves in the USA

[jimfields33]

49. 12-18 months?

No way are the masses going to put up with that. We haven’t even begun to see restlessness yet. It seems like a year already and it’s been days. In max two weeks, people are going to say screw this and demand return to normalcy. I know there’s no such thing anymore. I just don’t see many stuck at home for long.

[meadowlander]

60. We've put up with three years of Trump.

It's amazing what you can put up with when you don't have a choice.

It's going to take 12-18 months to develop a vaccine.

People can "demand a return to normalcy" all they want but it's not going to happen until we either develop a vaccine or the disease runs its course, killing millions. Neither is going to happen in less than 12-18 months.

[ProfessorGAC]

65. You're Talking Vaccine

Others are working on cocktails of existing meds to moderate the severity.
People will get less spooked if the death rate, if you get it, goes form 1 in 40, to 1 in 2,000.
Finding effective treatments could take far less time, especially given what French, Spanish & Chinese doctors are already reporting. The very fact that safety tests are already complete for existing drugs shortens the time line considerably.

[herding cats]

15. Just a heads up, Amazon closed their Amazon Pantry (grocery and household goods) service

That's as of yesterday. They can't get supplies to keep it open. Look it up.

Sick people cant work. When people are well it will be a moot thing and they won't need more staff.

This is nothing like a wartime mobilization. Again, sick people cannot work.

This isn't a patriotic moment. It's a virus. It dose not give a damn about your level of patriotism.

[meadowlander]

17. Not everyone is going to get sick at the same time.

And people being out sick will create opportunities for people are well to temp for them.

People still need to get food somewhere. We're not all going to say "oh well, there's a disruption to the supply chain at Amazon so I guess I'll stop eating."

And that exact same massive demand for home delivery of groceries is what is going to drive hiring.

[herding cats]

18. It's still closed.

They have no food delivery. Their flagship is gone. Poof!

Seriously, they already are broken. Whole food has a two week wait, as do most local curbside and delivery services. These are just facts.

[meadowlander]

21. They are the current state of play, which can change tomorrow.

Where there is demand, it will be met by supply. That's Economics 101. Sometimes it just takes time.

The exact same massive surges in demand you are pointing to are why more jobs are going to be created.

[herding cats]

24. Except you are not correct.

By the time it catches up there won't be a demand anymore.

Have you never read any disaster scenarios before?

[meadowlander]

27. Really?

How is the demand going to disappear? We're all going to stop eating? This is all going to clear up in the next two weeks?

We're in this for 12-18 months. That means fundamental shifts to the way we do things. One of those shifts is a lot more food delivery to individual houses instead of people going to the supermarket. Fundamental shifts are messy and inefficient but not impossible.

[herding cats]

31. You've not actually read a thing I've said, have you?

I'm glad you have food and a supply to it.

You're into your message and won't hear anything else. I've seen it before.

Peace to you.

[meadowlander]

35. You're the one making this personal and engaging in ad hominem attacks.

Just answer one question - Where is the increased demand for home delivery of groceries over the next 12-18 months going to go?

And if that demand is still there, why wouldn't it be met by an increase in supply?

Do you really think we're going to have a scenario with 40% unemployment because the hospitality industry shuts down and meanwhile grocery stores are desperate for stockers and delivery drivers but just say "oh well, it's too hard, we're going to close permanently" too?

We still have all the food we need to feed America. What we don't have are enough truck drivers and delivery drivers and people to fulfill orders at the rate they are coming in during this temporary panic. Once the panic subsides, the increased demand will still be there but the supply chain will become manageable. Stores could solve it now by limiting the amount of each item people could purchase each time.

And you're not even touching on all the increased demand for childcare services for healthcare workers and cleaners and manufacturing.

All I'm saying is to all the people who went in to work today and found out they don't have a job anymore, you don't need to despair. There will be massive amounts of work to be done over the next period of time and that can help to tide you over.

[herding cats]

36. What does anything you just said have to do with any one thing I said?

Again, you never read my words.

Wow. Awkward.

[meadowlander]

37. "By the time it catches up there won't be a demand anymore."

Where is the demand going to go?

[herding cats]

38. I'm putting you to bed for tonight.

I prefer to like people here and have an extremely limited amount of time online.

I'm not angry, or even crabby. My Internet interactions never evoke emotions. I'm just really busy and this is not something I'm willing to waste time on.

I do wish you well, though. Stay healthy and please be careful.

[herding cats]

23. You're not getting it.

They can't stock enough because currently there's a supply side problem in their warehouses.

Think on that. They cannot stock enough to meet demand. Adding staff won't fix that. It might mean you're going to get your other items sooner, but it won't break the bottleneck of food items.

As other orders shrink, and they will, how long will these jobs last? Especially in a recession?

Be smart.

[meadowlander]

25. There isn't a supply problem, there's a labour shortage.

At my local supermarkets they have the food but literally can't put it out on the shelves fast enough.

There's no shortage of food, no loss of capacity to produce it or even to increase production as needed. The problem is a sudden unanticipated jolt in demand which can be met, given enough time, by an increase in supply and/or an improvement in logistics and/or an increase in labour.

You act like no problem has ever been or can ever be solved. It is normal for there to be sudden runs on particular items which causes shortages which causes increases in production. Amazon is just working out the kinks. And even if they don't, all the local groceries stores are going to ramping up and improving their delivery services. They don't really have a choice.

Everybody is going to calm down in a week or two and realise they can't cram any more toilet paper into their closets. But they are still not going to want to leave the house (or may be facing an order forbidding them from leaving the house) and will then need everything delivered.

I'm not saying these kinds of jobs will become permanent careers. I'm saying there is going to be lots of "make-do", temporary work for people during the slow down. As opposed to 2008 when 500 people were turning up for interviews at McDonalds.

[herding cats]

29. Ok, this is an online and national issue.

If you can get food locally, that's great. Amazing even! I'm thrilled for you!! I can't, but I'm happy for you.

What we're speaking of here is a national bottleneck in supplies which has lead to Amazon closing down their pantry services due to a lack of supply.

Remember, your argument was about Amazon, not your local retailer. Amazon has been kneecapped currently due to a supply side problem. Look. It. Up. I'm not exaggerating anything.

[radius777]

47. Your logic is flawed. Everyone is vulnerable

in every job, in every interaction. There aren't some people who are safe who can help the others and fill the labor shortage. Everyone is at risk and the virus can hit inside Amazon's factories, inside the supermarkets, inside the delivery operations, etc.

IOW, the problem really isn't economic but scientific - we need a vaccine or effective methods to stop the spread.

As long as everyone is more or less equally at risk for getting it - the economy is fucked and cannot function.

[meadowlander]

59. The early people who get it and recover will be able to fill those jobs.

100% of the workers aren't going to be constantly sick for 12-18 months.

So you will have a period of people in essential roles putting themselves at risk. Some of them will get sick. Hopefully we can flatten the curve and then as people recover they can start picking up those jobs again without needing to undertake such extreme social distancing because they will have already had it.

We're going to see rolling waves of infections but it's not going to be everywhere in everyone all at once.

[Phoenix61]

63. Thank you. People seem to have forgotten how

viruses work. If we didn’t develop immunity there wouldn’t be vaccines. I’m not sure where the 12-18 months came from. I think it’s going to be faster than that, really bad, but faster.

[stopbush]

68. Except that it looks like there is no recovery as people are possibly being reinfected.

That’s yet to be confirmed but it is a concern.

[radius777]

74. Immunity is no guarantee

especially if the virus mutates/evolves - certainly not permanent immunity.

And a portion of those who get sick may have after effects that renders them unable to work.

We simply don't have enough hard scientific evidence about this virus at this point to form any meaningful economic strategy.

[stopbush]

67. Yes, and that's the problem. If everyone was sick all at once we could hunker down

for a month then return to some semblance of normal. But with new infections continually occurring we could be looking at a situation of ongoing orders to stay at home. Worse, it looks like it’s possible one can be reinfected with the virus, which means no herd immunity.

[Roland99]

48. But supply is not an issue nationwide

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/business/coronavirus-food-shortages.html

Another strategy that is helping ease the strain: Some food supply is being diverted to grocery stores from the restaurants, school cafeterias and college campuses that have closed.

“The food is there. It’s just going into different spots,” said David McInerney, the chief executive of FreshDirect. “Cruise ships are not using up all of the avocados. We have a giant surge of avocados.”

[herding cats]

52. True, but I'm not speaking of fresh chicken or avocado supplies.

I'm speaking about shut ins being able to access dry good staples inside their homes as they used to before. Which they now cannot. Where I am now if you're immune compromised or elderly, the hours it takes to get into a store to shop are dangerous.

Some people are unable to, or afraid to, wait in line at grocery's (here it's an hour minimum at opening) and don't have an alternative left to them for even shelf stable basics delivered to their home anymore. I'm not blaming Amazon, but it's still a fact their supply has broken.

I'm speaking about Amazon pantry's supply being broken here specifically.

[Roland99]

55. It's labor, not supply

And it’s temporary

[herding cats]

57. It's been a month there.

They've had less and less available. Then they closed Amazon Pantry. Do you have all your basics in your store? I don't. I wish I did.

I've literally watched this coming down there daily. From a limit of 3 to 2 to 1, to now zero.

There's a bottleneck and it's real. Amazon opened extra warehouse room for food and household goods and still this happened. They're a big player in commercial goods.

[Roland99]

62. Getting to Publix or Target early I've had plenty of choices

Since last Thursday, I’ve been steadily building a supply. Getting to stores at open is the best way right now

[Roland99]

51. As for Amazon, it appears to be a labor issue, not supply

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazon-prime-pantry-delivery-service-temporarily-shut-due-to-surge-in-demand/

Swamped by a flood of orders by consumers hunkering down at home due to the coronavirus, Amazon is closing its Prime Pantry food-delivery service nationwide for an unspecified period of time so it can restock.

"Pantry is temporarily closed. We're busy restocking," states a notice posted on its website, citing "high order volumes" as underlying the closure. "This means that items listed as 'Ships & Sold from Pantry' cannot be added to your cart. We apologize for this inconvenience, and are working with our partners to get these items back in stock as quickly as possible."

...

According to the notice, consumers can still buy similar grocery and household necessities through the company's Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods outlets. That said, "due to high demand, other stores may have limited availability and delivery."

...

Amazon on Monday said it is looking to hire 100,000 people across the U.S. to keep up with the crush of online orders as the virus spreads and keeps more people at home and shopping online.

[herding cats]

54. Yes, some items are available via their grocery option.

At extremely elevated prices. Those are not warehouse items.

Amazon began limiting the amount of items a person could purchase more than 4 weeks ago via pantry. Trust me, they cannot restock properly.

[Roland99]

56. Due to labor shortage. Can't keep up with orders

[herding cats]

58. A bottleneck in supply, yes.

Which is what I've said all along. It's impacting me locally as well.

I think this is what you're saying as well, right?

[Roland99]

61. Labor supply. Not inventory supply

[NewsCenter28]

19. That's not a good scenario you outline for those of us hoping to defeat Trump in November-n/t

[meadowlander]

22. He's still a fuckwit.

And it's not like I'm expecting a boom economy. Just pointing out that all of the waitresses and motel cleaners and SeaWorld staff that are losing their jobs today are likely going to be able to find something to tide them over under the economy gets back on its feet.

[brush]

26. trump's bungled non-response has exponentially expanded the...

the virus crisis/economic collapse. He can't escape blame no matter how he and the repugs try to spin it.

Presidents who preside over recessions historically don't get re-elected—and this ridiculously incapable, orange asshole has also negligently and carelessly contributed to the virus' rising death toll.

[lunatica]

53. There will be jobs

The new administration will launch a jobs campaign for the infrastructure which we need desperately.

Manufacturing goods for fighting global warming factories will be created and jobs in alternate energy will abound.

Companies will have businesses with employees who work from home which will cut down on the pollution created by gas run vehicles.

What we will have is a different economy, based on sustainability. Rebuilt infrastructures, and perhaps more localized businesses. The big corporations may actually finally collapse. At least we can hope so.

[honest.abe]

66. The economy will collapse for the next several months.

There will be massive layoffs and many many companies will go bankrupt. It will be similar to the great depression.. with the big exception that this is relatively short term. There are no major underlying causes for this downturn. This is being a caused by a single factor that should in time basically go away as which time the economy should fairly quickly return to a somewhat "normal" levels. However that will take many months and during that time life will be very difficult for the vast majority of us.

We live in interesting times.

[delisen]

79. Climate change jobs galore on the horizon

Our economy will change. to a more planned one .

[Wellstone ruled]

10. Here is a reality check.

The Las Vegas Convention and Visitor's Bureau claims the first hire backs when the Casino's and Hotels open again,will be about 20% and new hires will only happen as Tourist return. They even said,not all of these workers will ever return.

There will not be a snap back. We are in for a long 5-6 year economic rebuild.

[NewsCenter28]

20. Maybe something like that will FINALLY irreparably teach the MAGATs the error of their ways-n/t

[MoonlitKnight]

39. They will still be waiting for the coal jobs to come back

[Wellstone ruled]

71. Vegas is a different

type of City. Very transitory. Studies suggest the Population turns over every seven years.

In 2007-2009,home building and Casino's was the main industry and after the Lehman Bust,it took almost ten years to right the ship with a mix of new Tech industries as well as some manufacturing. Again,still a Tourist and Entertainment Economy that carries massive amounts of Debt.

[Initech]

12. I was planning to go to a university this year.

CV is going to set my plans back at least two years if not more. And I'm not sure I want to attend classes virtually. Hell even my classes next week are going to be fucking weird. I'm no stranger to online classes but there's something about being in a classroom that you can't get staring at a computer screen. Plus there's also that whole making connections with people thing.

And I need to buy a car too. CV also set that back.

And I'm sure that I am not the only person like this.

[jimfields33]

50. On line classes were exploding before this

I see this type of teaching increasing even more. With shrinking budgets before this, I can see colleges and heck even high schools saying how much this would save on the budget. I think this is a disaster for traditional education.

[genxlib]

69. My daughter is set to starting college in the fall

She is depressed about missing the best parts of her HS Senior year: ie prom, graduation, senior trip, etc.

I don't know how to tell her that she might not be going to college in the fall. It could break her spirit. It seems very possible that the coming year could be all online. That would be awful. I would seriously consider having her take a gap year but there is no guarantee that she could get a job in the meantime. She certainly couldn't travel or do much else interesting.

[marlakay]

14. The question is will they learn from this

To have set procedures in place like the dept Trump got rid of?

[Baclava]

30. So how many months till we see toilet paper on shelves again?

[KY_EnviroGuy]

32. A great many small businesses with shut down for good as lease payments, utilities....

business insurance, and other fixed costs pile up with little or no revenue.

Service shops may survive (HVAC, plumbing, roofers, etc.) but I think even their work will be slim.

People will be doing a lot of DIY repairs themselves out of desperation, and some quite dangerous......

[Loki Liesmith]

33. 10-20 years?

C’mon.

[stopbush]

41. Yes, 10-20 years of being spooked by this crisis.

I grew up in the 1960s, and adults who had lived through the Depression were still spooked by that crisis thirty years after it ended. That and the war were very much in their minds decades after the fact.

[Quemado]

76. I agree - people will be spooked for a long time after this.

My father was born on a farm in Nebraska in 1921. He experienced the Dust Bowl and served in WWII.

My mother was born in 1927.

I also grew up in the 60's.

My parents were tight with money.

[Totally Tunsie]

34. I posted a similar thought a few moments ago.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13142187

"First, there was a slow dawning. Today was a major awakening.

Perhaps it was the shock over what had transpired that blinded me to the full reality of what life may be for quite a long while. This is not a "weeks" situation ~ The effects of CV and the destruction of the economy will be life-changing. The movie Logan's Run has been haunting me for days.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logan%27s_Run_(film)

It depicts a utopian future society on the surface, revealed as a dystopia where the population and the consumption of resources are maintained in equilibrium by killing everyone who reaches the age of thirty. The story follows the actions of Logan 5, a "Sandman" who has terminated others who have attempted to escape death and is now faced with termination himself.

I'm fortunate to be retired. That's one less stress since I don't have to worry about losing a job and finding another. I have everything I need and then some, with enough to share. My concern is for my sons and their families, who have much more to lose than I, and will be on earth longer to feel the effects."

[AlexSFCA]

40. economy will transform

Americans will dramatically cut back on international travel but will be spending their vacation and traveling in the US even more locally perhaps. This is good news for economy. There will be some innovation happening to air travel in terms of disinfection. Eateries are transforming to take out and delivery businesses. They won’t need large restaurant space, they just need kitchen - far less expenses so can be quite profitable. We will sharply move online for most everything. Telecommuting will dramatically increase. Finally, there will be mass movement to have stuff manufactured in the US again. Particularly, all medical equipment and PPE - this is enormous industry considering export opportunities.
But recovery from coronavirus crash will be long. Next is housing market crash coming next year due to millions of job losses. Again, buying opportunity for many.

[stopbush]

43. Like Katrina presented a "buying opportunity" for rich white people to swoop in and

buy up properties that were owned by minorities who didn't have the wherewithal to hold onto the properties after the storm? That kind of opportunity?

[AlexSFCA]

72. young professionals who are ready to step into middle class

[stopbush]

73. A.K.A. the scions of rich white people. Got it.

[Lock him up.]

42. Could be an opportunity to implement the Green New Deal with...

... a Biden administration. Or at least, big chunks of it.

There's no work around: Climate change will finish everything if not addressed.

Infrastructure investments too.

[duforsure]

45. I agree

Put people working again by making solar panels and have them installed on every home free. Clean up the air, stimulate the economy and give people more to spend.

[cstanleytech]

46. True it can help the economy as it does put people to work but we need to fund it and personally

I think we should tax the hell out of the corporations to fix it.
After all they have been the ones buying the votes in both with the federal government via Congress and the varies state governments to keep their taxes absurdly low so its time that they pay back what they have essentially stolen by doing so.

[cstanleytech]

44. About the only thing that might help is giving the people and not the corporations help. If every

household that brings in 65k or less was given 9k to 15k we could save the economy as those households would spend alot of the money.
That way it helps the varies hardest hit households the most while infusing a significant amount of cash into the market.
Yes it does seem like alot of money but we spend a shit ton on the military every year so if we cut that in half we would still be spending far more than China or Russia spend and we could help offset the cost of the assistance the households would get.

[gibraltar72]

64. Didn't live through depression

But I talked to my parents grandparents who did.Also in my business met many older people who had. I see some parallels already.

[durablend]

70. Some other ramifications nobody's mentioning...

Ebay (craigslist, etc)....do you trust whatever hasn't been contaminated in someone's house?

thrift stores...again, people are going to think "Where has that been?!?"

auto repair places are starting to institute policies where they won't even touch the car unless it's sat for at least three days. How many people are going to be able to be without a car for that long? Nevermind having to get a ride to-from the repair shop =/= social distancing.

[ck4829]

75. Our "strong economy" was only strong on paper... so to speak

[BeckyDem]

78. I thought the billionaires were going to save us.

[beachbumbob]

80. the recovery will take years, no doubt.

[dustyscamp]

81. Trump and co will find a way to blame all this on the Dems

Maga goons will eat it up, but also a good amount of non-Magats too