I have two questions maybe I missed.

[slater71]

The first one is, Can you become reinfected if you had CV before?

The second one is, If we lose 10,20 thousand people with the flu, then why do they not close down anything when the flu strikes?

[BusyBeingBest]

1. We know the flu, it's more predictable, it has a long drawn out season,

it doesn't overwhelm the medical system all at once, and it has a vaccine that often works. Don't know yet if people are adequately developing immunity from previous corona infections, from what I've seen.

[bronxiteforever]

5. +1

[WhiskeyGrinder]

2. Things are closing down not because people will die.

Things are closing down because the load of people dying on the hospital system will disrupt it in such a way that both people sick from CV and people who have other maladies won't be able to get the care they need.

[zackymilly]

3. Found this.

In theory, it means you can't get the COVID-19 strain twice. However, one woman in Japan was reported to have picked up the virus a second time; testing positive once in late January, and then again in late February (with a negative test showing up in between, in the first week of February).

This suggests there may be two slightly different strains of the highly contagious coronavirus, which is something that has been hypothesised previously. Some have theorised that there is one, far more mild strain of the virus, and another that yields more severe symptoms. However, the World Health Organisation insists that "there is no evidence that the virus has been changing".

[Igel]

9. The "two strain" theory has been trashed.

Repeatedly.

The underlying assumption was that all the bad cases early was one strain, all the lighter cases a second strain. You run the numbers, you find a difference, you say there are two strains.

Then you assume there are two strains, and then you find the difference and say that the difference must be what's important.

You don't assume the premise and you get randomness. And the genetic difference that they found actually had no good correlation anywhere but in that case.

My conclusion: The good folks in China were playing CYA in order to absolve the government of any responsibility. It wasn't the cover up, the nasty strain just happened to be in charge until the day the government got its act together, then it was the less virulent strain that dominated. How. Incredibly. Convenient.

So far, as of the last time I checked (it's been a few days) they'd analyzed the genome of something like 600+ samples, and while they found all kinds of differences, it's a volatile virus, known to have lots of point mutations that amount to squat.

[unblock]

4. As for reinfection, there are reports of it, but

It's unclear if it's really an infection, complete recovery, and a separate, second infection as opposed to a first infection that went a asymptotic or dormant and later re-emerged.

Of course, that may be a distinction without a difference.


As for shutting down everything, I'm actually impressed the world is responding as it is. I guess we're more a world community than the republicans would have us believe after all.

But the concern here is that the death toll might be far higher, well into the millions.

If we knew in advance the death toll would "only" be 10-20 thousand, it would be treated as just another strain of cold/flu.

[Ms. Toad]

6. Answer to first - no one knows.

It's brand new. Most viruses cannot re-infect because you create antibodies that recognize and fend it off the next time your body encounters it. That said, there are some people in China who have tested positive for the virus (not for the presence of antibodies) after recovery. So it is still an open question.

As to the second - the goal is to avoid overwhelming our hospitals, so that our doctors don't have to choose which patients to treat and which to let die

The virus moves faster than the flu, at least in part because no one has antibodies, and in part because it appears to be more easily transmissible (lives longer on surfaces, and infectious before symptoms appear).

Once you have it, if your case is severe, you are looking at 2 weeks or so of hospitalization in an ICU or on a ventilator. That is a very rare occurrence with the flu.

So absent shut downs, we are headed for rapidly higher numbers of sick - each of whom simultaneously need more hospital resources, for a longer period of time.

Our hospitals run at 65% capacity now (and that is mostly normal beds, not ICU beds & equipment intense treatment). So if we don't slow the virus down (shutting things down), there will be too many people who need hospital resources as the same time. (As opposed to the flu which is spread out over the entire flu season, with less intense needs.)

[uppityperson]

7. #2 was answered. #1, that is unknown

You may not have recovered fully and it's been lurking, low key, in your lungs. It's not a reinfection but a resumption.

Or you may get reinfected.

I had the mumps twice as a child, before vaccines. The doctor was startled and couldn't say why.

[bronxiteforever]

8. As to answer Number 2, here is what we are trying to avoid

The disaster in Northern Italy. The hospital system was overwhelmed by what they call a “wave” and docs are making decisions on who lives and dies.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0320/1124458-our-beards-will-grow-back-on-the-virus-frontline/

This one from today
Israeli doctor in Italy: We no longer help those over 60

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF MARCH 22, 2020 09:21

https://m.jpost.com/International/Israeli-doctor-in-Italy-We-no-longer-help-those-over-60-621856

[Igel]

10. Italy, primarily one part of the country,

is responsible for nearly half the world's deaths reported yesterday.

Unenviable in so many ways, it also makes it an extreme outlier that skews most analyses if included and probably skews them if excluded.

[bronxiteforever]

15. Spain Is showing bad signs today.

A total of 394 deaths and 2,646 new cases of coronavirus were reported in Spain in the past 24 hours.

About 1,720 people have lost their lives to the disease and 28,572 cases have been recorded so far — making the country the third worst-hit country in the world.

Madrid, the most populous city in the Spanish country, is said to be the worst-hit region, with about 60% of the country’s death.

In a televised address on Saturday, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez warned that the number of infections would rise in the coming days.

“The worst is yet to come, and it is pushing our capacities to the limit,” he said.

https://www.thecable.ng/coronavirus-spain-records-394-deaths-2646-cases-in-24hrs

I think your position that Italy will remain an outlier is based on insufficient data.

“ Until testing capacity is up, epidemiologists said, the numbers do not offer a true measure of the outbreak because they’re just showing that more people are being tested.
“We don’t have enough data now to know where we are on the epidemic curve because we simply aren’t testing enough," said Nadia Abuelezam, a Boston College epidemiologist.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/21/nation/when-will-coronavirus-pandemic-end-what-scientists-can-say-about-life-returning-normal/

[4139]

11. In addition to the others, no vaccine mean no protection of medical personnel...

Medical personnel can from work or home.

In addition to the hospitals being overwhelmed, could also lose the services of a lot of medical professionals which would double the problem.

[Wounded Bear]

12. We hope people can't get re-infected, but we don't know yet...

if people can be re-infected, it means that an actual vaccine may not work as well, and would wear off over time.

But if we can get one that lasts say, a year, it would be closer to flu territory. Probably a long ways away, though.

[Brainfodder]

13. 1: yes 2: Regular flus aren't as robust and vaccine to avoid is a/v on the regular?

Nutshell edition.

Good luck!

[Midnightwalk]

14. McDonalds serves a billion burgers a year

You’d still be out of luck if you tried to order a million at a drive through. The difference is how rapidly Coronavirus can overwhelm hospitals.

I saw that comparison on reddit but couldn’t find it again to give credit.