My Doc today: "If you had corona, you'd be dead now." Shit gets real in about a month, people won't

[Floyd R. Turbo]

believe it’s happening even while it’s happening!”

Went in because of a sinus infection and bronchitis. He advised me to stay home at all costs. Any underlying health issues could be a death sentence. The public is going to relax and let down their guard and that’s when the shit hits the fan.

Starting next week his clinic will be closed and he will only see patients via teleconference or by phone.

[dhol82]

1. Wow!

[Eliot Rosewater]

2. Yeah it is about to get insane BECAUSE of republicans, because of rump...GOP is still

refusing to close up shop.

I have resigned myself to dying...I just hope you all can get justice for me and the other MILLIONS likely to die.

[emmaverybo]

5. Stay home and live. Please.

[whathehell]

27. +100.

[whathehell]

29. Eliot, the vast majority (85%) of those 80+ survive!

and those are the most vulnerable, so none of us need resign ourselves to such a pessimistic outlook.

[GeoWilliam750]

52. Stay around for a while longer, if you don't mind

The party is going to get really fun, and it is better with you there

[Ohiogal]

3. Take care, Floyd.

Feel better soon.

[Floyd R. Turbo]

40. Thanks.

[bluedye33139]

4. Psychotherapy is only by telehealth now in Washington state

It's a whole different set of skills!

[BigmanPigman]

17. They are training teacher who are on CA Lockdown

to teach kids via computer at home. They plan on allowing graduation and promotion to the next grade if schools stay closed for the school year.

"The district’s plan is to launch a “revised online learning system” that will allow for interaction with professional educators, San Diego Unified..."

“The schedule outlined today by the district will give members of the Class of 2020 the assurance they need that they will graduate, whether or not public health officials approve a return to in-classroom instruction,” the district of 103,000 students said in the statement."

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/education/story/2020-03-24/san-diego-unified-will-transition-fully-to-online-learning-by-april-27

[Cha]

30. My niece and BIL are teachers and are teaching at

home via computers in Asheville, NC and Gainesville, Fla respectively.

[BigmanPigman]

33. Most teachers aren't trained to teach this way

so they are training the existing teachers to learn how to do this so the kids won't be left behind. I don't know how other districts are doing this. I think they are figuring it out as they go along. San Diego Unified is huge! This is a bureaucracy and you know what that is like to deal with in a timely fashion. If we open the schools then have to close them again it would be such a waste of time and money. That is why we need long term planning, not this "we will be done by Easter" BS.

[jberryhill]

6. People don't understand how exponential curves work

They’re not intuitive.

People are good at intuitive linear projection but, unfortunately, the word “exponential” gets thrown around casually among people who don’t really grasp the concept.

[Vinnie From Indy]

8. I always liked the doubling of a penny every day for thirty days example.

[MissB]

10. Or the pond with lily pads

That takes 48 days to fill completely by doubling in size each day. Which day was it half full?

(Day 47)

[MoonlitKnight]

14. Fold a piece of paper

See if you can do it more than seven times.

[panader0]

45. Or rice on a chess board.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13156822

[cos dem]

18. Exponents should always be imaginary numbers.

Then you don't have this problem.

[customerserviceguy]

26. Imaginary numbers?

You mean, like Trump's IQ?

[Floyd R. Turbo]

41. Today confirmed cases were thirty percent more than yesterday where I live.

[OhNo-Really]

7. 😳 That's so frightening. Check out my homemade protecy

Link to tweet

[kickitup]

9. My husband's doctor told him to go home and not come out for at least two months.

My nephew who is a physician echoed that.

My husband has end stage liver disease and there's no way he would survive this. I am paranoid. I feel like all I do is wash my hands then I read too much hand washing can break down the skin's protective layer or something. I stay a mess.

[Cha]

31. So sorry!

[misanthrope]

35. How vicious to the economy can he be?

Doesn't the doc have a soft spot for the poor, poor finances?

[Blue_true]

50. Try to find a hand lotion that has Stearyl Alcohol as the second or third

component after water. Failing that, find one that has Cetyl Alcohol in the list of ingredients. Aveno has Cetyl Alcohol to help with spread and seal moisture in the skin.

Don't let alcohol throw you off. Most common alcohol dries skin, but long chain alcohols like Stearyl and Cetyl don't. You may see a compound called Cetearyl Alcoholin some lotions, it is ok to use, it is a mixture of Cetyl and Stearyl Alcohol. Different companies play around with their formulations, so the percentage of fatty alcohol in formulations will vary, but if you go online, a there is a lot of information on the best formulations being offered.

[Sugarcoated]

11. Why would he say something so extreme?

[Floyd R. Turbo]

42. He's a realist. A practicing physician for more than thirty years.

[Sugarcoated]

48. Because you had underlying health issues?

Bronchitis?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

51. +1

[pdxflyboy]

12. Because it's probably true. N/T

[Stonepounder]

13. I've said this before.

I'm about 99% sure that if I get it, it will kill me. We haven't left our yard for 2 weeks now. Our grandson does our grocery shopping for us

No office doctor visits. The used to do video, but the changed the app and the new one doesn't work on my phone. But I had a telephone voice only call with my Pulmonologist today. He is upping my Prednisone (for those of you not familiar with Prednisone, is it an immune system suppressor). And I'm 72.

I ain't going nowhere until Gov. Beshear gives the all-clear. I may even wait another week or two after that as well! I have to make it to November so I can vote! Vote FOR Biden, against McConnell!!

[lpbk2713]

15. Yes

If I can make it till November I'll be happy. Maybe I'll be doing my grandkids some good.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

16. Can I possibly point out that not everyone dies from this?

That the vast majority survive?

Why does everyone here seem to assume they're going to get it and they're going to die? What am I missing?

[A HERETIC I AM]

19. It's just scary, that's all.

And this board skews older, which is obviously the demographic in the most danger.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

24. And I am probably the only person on this board who isn't glued to the TV 24/7.

Which helps me keep things in perspective.

It also helps that I've read a lot of books on epidemiology and specific diseases, starting with And the Band Played On by Randy Shilts about the beginning of AIDS. Also The Great Influenza by John M. Barry. And The Coming Plague and Betrayal of Trust by Laurie Garrett. Plus a bunch of other books on the general topic.

So yeah, this is serious and the general shutting down of the country is probably a good thing, but this isn't the end of the world. And we are not all going to die. Not even all of us old fogies here.

[a la izquierda]

39. I don't watch the news either...

Plus I’m a historian. We know how these things end because they’ve happened before. And yes, no doubt they’re scary. But we’re all sitting here because our ancestors didn’t die. Society didn’t completely collapse.
I sat on a Zoom virtual happy hour and had to explain to three others-all highly educated PhDs- that this virus was NOT the Black Plague and they all needed to get a grip.

[CTyankee]

60. My mother survived the Spanish Flu back when she was a young child. She used to tell me about

all the sick people. And she lived to the age of 93. So I figure I've got strong genes!

One thing I do know as an art historian: the Black Plague of the 14th century wiped out one third of the pristine population of Northern Italy. The oncoming of the Renaissance happened in the 15th century. Many, many historians see the causal relationship there.

[Generic Brad]

20. I'm more afraid of giving it than getting it

No way in hell do I want to be responsible for potentially contributing to the death of anyone.

[Mister Ed]

38. +1 n/t

[whathehell]

28. Yes, about 85% of even the most vulnerable (age 80+) survive!

We don't want pessimism outweighing the facts.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

32. I think I now understand why so many

people buy lottery tickets. They look at that tiny chance of winning and say, "YES! That's me!!"

[whathehell]

34. Yep!

that sounds about right.

[stopdiggin]

37. no. you're correct.

I understand that there are quite a few that fall into the "compromised" category .. and those individuals should be extra cautious and vigilant (with the remainder of us being just cautious and vigilant, and thereby decent citizens). But the virus is NOT a death sentence for everyone that contracts it .. and it is not even a death sentence for the large majority of the compromised. And people in the medical community intimating that it IS .. isn't very helpful.

(I can only think that perhaps the rationale here is, "If we don't scare the bloody pants off of them ... Everything will fall on deaf ears." And, to some extent .. they may have reason for that analysis?)

[NickB79]

47. Are you still comparing the COVID pandemic to the Y2K panic like you did a month ago?

Just figured I'd point that out, for fellow DUer's who didn't know you did that.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

59. Yeah. In that just as airplanes were not really ever going to fall out of the sky

back then -- one of the common claims -- most people are not going to die of this.

But I see people freaking out because they have type A blood, or someone near them coughed or sneezed.

People read s-f novels or watch apocalyptic films or tv shows and think they are documentaries. They aren't. This is serious, but not everyone is going to die. Although admittedly, the planet would be better off if that happened.

I also have a healthy skepticism and a fondness for actual facts.

[obamanut2012]

58. +1

[Laura PourMeADrink]

21. Where are you???

[Floyd R. Turbo]

43. SoWest.

[Warpy]

22. Next week is about right

I know it's silently spreading here even with only 100 documented cases. Our first death in state was a man in a rural county who was found dead and tested postmortem and is the one confirmed case for that county. I'm in the hot spot, so I'll be cooling my heels at home for at least the next couple of weeks, maybe longer, certainly not less.

I don't think we'll see the mess they're facing in the big coastal cities, if only because this city is so much less congested. In addition, the sun at this altitude and in this arid climate tends to blast anything it touches into deep submission, including my Irish hide.

I expect the next month to be pretty ugly.

[sarcasmo]

23. I had a teleconference with my Doctor too for Sinus, safest way right now.

[TeamPooka]

25. what state are you in?

[Floyd R. Turbo]

44. SoWest.

[Nature Man]

36. Just went and got about a month of food

and a month of cat food and cat litter.

Reupped 90 day supply of meds.

It's just me, so I should be able to stretch out the stuff you have to cook. Lunchmeat, cottage cheese, sausages (or any thing else that doesn't require much preparation) doesn't last very long in my refrigerator.

[MerryBlooms]

46. Nice to see your monitor ink.

I'm the only one venturing out for essentials. My oldest sister's pharmacy doesn't deliver, so had to pick up insulin today. I was relieved to see plexiglass at the counter, and giant blue dots on the floor spaced out at least 6' apart. Take care and hope you're feeling right as rain soon.

[Initech]

49. My brother said we could be moving to a DNR order similar to what Spain and Italy have.

We are truly in for some dark times ahead.

[Brainfodder]

53. A happy correction but still awful, have it at 1.33x instead of 1.43x

Last edited Fri Mar 27, 2020, 04:29 AM - Edit history (1)

Trajectory:

From last night 3/26/2020:

1296ish death per JHU Global Case Counter.
1732 Expected end of today 3/27
2303
3064
4074
5419
7207
9586
12749
16956
22552
29994
39892
53056
70565
93851 Estimated U.S.A. deaths at current rate on 4.10.2020.

Good Luck!

[PufPuf23]

54. That is horrid and true for now but misleading for the longer term

Expansion of organisms into fresh and unoccupied habitat follows a sigmoid growth curve not a straight exponential pattern.

First the organism becomes established and growth rate is slow.

Once established there is the first inflection in the sigmoid curve and the rate increases as the organism expands into what is essentially an open frontier. This is the period where exponential growth occurs. This is where we are now with the major breakouts in urban areas. Rural areas are still in the establishment phase and likely will not have the expansion rates of the densely populated urban areas.

After a period of rapid expansion the organism begins to hit limits in less frontier to exploit and in many cases competition with its own cohort. This is the second inflection of the sigmoid curve.

The rate continues to fall off as new hosts or habitat is relatively available and at some point flatlines and the rate falls. The drop off can follow a number of patterns.

The pattern of sigmoid growth is almost an ecological constant that applies to Douglas-fir in the forest, grass in a freshly seeded lawn, or bacteria inoculated into a petri dish.

[Brainfodder]

55. Yeah I agree, this will fall off, but we haven't peaked yet?

I wanted a bad case scenario set of numbers to compare to the actual.

[PufPuf23]

56. The 2nd portion post establishment is exponential and

that is where we are at in the hot spots.

That said, I perceive CV19 as the most dire situation faced by the USA and humanity in general during my 67 plus years of life.

Look how much has changed in the last several weeks. And we are no where near what can be expected. And not that much is known. What if CV19 becomes endemic, humans are not capable through herd or vaccine effect to build much immunity, and people can be readily re-infected. At a start, there goes long life statistics.

Things look to me to be posed for being more crappy than few can imagine.

[Brainfodder]

57. Yup and whoever is President now aint gonna be re-electable if even alive themselves!

The states with idiotic behaving Governors will be slammed at the Hospitals, I just know it.

I lived in NC for 6 years, that's a gonna be a especially nasty there and that general deep south area.

Meanwhile our #1 is a #2.

[ProfessorGAC]

61. Sounds Like What I Had

Back in mid December. Same diagnosis.
I think they were right because I never had a fever. Mine was almost all in the chest though.
Get well, Floyd!