BREAKING: Italy records almost 1,000 coronavirus deaths in 24 hours

[bronxiteforever]

AFP/The Local
[e-mail]
@thelocalitaly
27 March 202018:17 CET+01:00

Italy recorded a shocking spike in coronavirus deaths Friday with 969 new victims, the worst daily record for any country since the pandemic began.

The infection rate however continued its downward trend, with the civil protection agency reporting nearly 86,500 confirmed cases in Italy -- a 7.4 percent increase, down from around 8.0 percent in previous days.

That represents the smallest rise in recorded cases since the epidemic began, albeit health officials say the real number of coronavirus cases in the country is far higher than the 86,498 recorded.

The national health institute (ISS) cautiously suggested lockdown measures to curb the spread of the disease -- which has claimed over 8,100 lives and infected some 80,000 people -- may soon bear fruit. "I want to be clear on one point. We have not peaked yet," the institute's head Silvio Brusaferro said. "There are signs of a slowdown, which makes us believe that we are close, we could peak in the next few days”

https://www.thelocal.it/20200327/breaking-italy-records-shocking-rise-in-coronavirus-deaths

[Loki Liesmith]

1. Ok now that's bad

That really busts the lower trend we were seeing

[bronxiteforever]

3. I am not willing to give up on your point yesterday.

They did say new infections rate is going down. On the human side, 969 souls is just heartbreaking.

[Loki Liesmith]

6. Well I did just notice that new cases are down

Death lags infections do maybe things are still improving. Cross your fingers.

[DarthDem]

9. I don't think so

If I understood your point from yesterday's discussion of the Italian numbers, the trend actually went even lower, as deaths are a trailing indicator and the number of new infections reported fell dramatically. In fact, when the curve started flattening last week quite a few commenters on various sites were pointing out that the number of deaths, which was also going down, didn't really jibe. It appears that the correlation there is loose, possibly because not everyone who is confirmed as infected passes at the same rate. (I hate that I just typed that; this is so sad.)

The loss of these people is just simply soul-crushing. But I think the numbers from today actually support the premise that the lockdown is working.

[Loki Liesmith]

11. Yeah I read further and saw the new infection data

It’s actually probably ok. Terrible for total deaths today but it does seem to be working.

[hlthe2b]

2. ah, damn. I don't care the motivation, I'm glad as hell that Cuba, China, and yes, Russia sending

aid and personnel to Italy to combat COVID-19.

[spinbaby]

4. Why is Italy's mortality so high?

It looks like around a 10% mortality rate. It it because they overwhelmed their medical system?

[titaniumsalute]

8. It is thought to be a number of factors

1. Most people getting the virus are not being tested like here. Many with mild symptoms or who even remain 100% asymptomatic never get tested. If only the hospitalized are getting tested then the death % will be much higher.

2. Their average age is much older. 26% are 65+ years old. here I believe it is only about 18%.

3. The region hit the hardest is a normally very polluted area. I read that the air pollution in that region is almost as bad as smoking a pack of cigs per day for the average person. Couple that with age and other health related issues and it is a recipe for higher deaths.

4. Im sure some is due to overwhelmed hospitals and lack of ventilators.

[bronxiteforever]

12. I do know in Italy they are testing all the dead.

That number is unfortunately very accurate.

I wonder, given the US coroner system, are all our dead being tested. It cost money to test which in turn impacts county budgets. Coroners do not have to be physicians in some states. We even elect coroners in some states.

I think hospitals being overwhelmed in Italy is a major factor.

[titaniumsalute]

13. If someone gets sick with respiratory and in the hospital then yes

they are being tested. The signs are all pretty straightforward with advanced resp issues that it is most like Covid-19. Mathematically if you only test the most sick then the sample is not accurate for a real death %.

Let's say you test 100% of say 10,000 of the people who have hospitalization and 1000 die. But if another 10,000 have the virus with either no or mild symptoms then that would be 20,000 with the virus and 1,000 dead. That would be 5%. The point is without massive testing we will never know he actual death rate. But if you read globally most medical scientists, researchers, and MDs are saying the actual death rate will be much lower overall but we will never know unless we can test massively for anti-bodies in the blood.

[bronxiteforever]

14. +1 That makes sense.

[Loki Liesmith]

5. Oh but new cases came down significantly!

Deaths are a lagging indicator so hopefully this was a blip.

[titaniumsalute]

7. Sadly deaths will always follow the new cases by weeks

The people who die from CV are usually past 15 days of symptoms. Couple that with maybe 7 days to get symptoms you're talking about new case to death at almost 3 weeks or more.

The positive news is the new cases plateauing and dropping. I'm not trying to minimize death but just pointing out that this is what we will see here also.

[Shanti Mama]

10. So sad.

Most of my company's business is with northern Italian customers, which is wonderful most of the time. But now my customers are all suffering greatly. Every person I interact with has lost someone, usually a much-loved elder, someone holding a family together. Tragic