Has there been any estimates on what percentage of population will get infected?

[USALiberal]

It seems like this will go on for a year or more, cases popping up and recurrence happening multiple times.

[PubliusEnigma]

1. 50-70%

[MontanaMama]

2. An ICU nurse across the street

reports me that they are being told 80% of us will get it...wide variation in symptoms, however. For example, there are nine cases in my city at the moment...only one of them is hospitalized.

[littlemissmartypants]

3. Here are some resources. Maybe one of these charts will help.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-in-charts-covid-19-symptoms-spread-deaths-warnings-2020-2

[subterranean]

4. I've seen estimates of as high as 80 percent.

The question is how much those cases will be spread out over time.

Without any measures taken, the number of cases would explode and overwhelm the capacity of hospitals, causing many needless deaths. Social isolation and distancing can help to slow the spread so the hospitals can better manage it.

It is very likely to be with us at least until an effective vaccine becomes available, and possibly even after that if it mutates every year like the flu.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

5. I've heard 80%.

[DFW]

6. Having no medical training at all, I have already predicted:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13176422

At this point probably 75% of us in North America and Europe have been exposed to the virus.

Of that 75%, maybe 10% have shown some symptoms

Of THAT 10%, maybe 10% have shown, or will show severe symptoms

Of THAT 10%, maybe 5% will not survive.

I also believe that few of those infected will be tested, and that maybe a third to half of the fatalities will be correctly diagnosed as to cause of death.

[SWBTATTReg]

13. 75% exposed now is a rather high percentage, I think its really lower, due to several factors...

-even though a lot of the population is mobile, a lot is not, and in fact, home bound, or live solitary lives (in short, they simply can't afford to travel by air, or travel period for that matter);

-a lot of our population is elderly, but a lot of them can't afford to go into a nursing home (in a way, this probably has saved a lot of their lives), they rely on friends and/or family perhaps in the rare occasion;

-now that the wicked witch of the west (CV) has been let loose, the population has been certainly trained in cleaning up after themselves, disinfecting the things that they buy, making fewer trips outside the home, and engaging in social distancing (which I don't know why they are making a big deal about this, it's been around for a long time);

-things that have been around in our society for some time, but not 100% universally accepted (due to a variety of reasons), is instead of having paper bills delivered manually, people are going electronically to having the bills and paid electronically;

-Interesting point...I applied the population of Italy (a mind exercise) at 60 million people to your formula, and I come up w/ 22,500 deaths (they're at 10K+ now), so I think you might be in the ballpark w/ these %s (sad of course, and I'm hoping it doesn't happen). Sadly you multiply the 60 million by 5 roughly and you'll get the US figures, over 112,500 deaths, several years perhaps of flu, etc. (there are approximately 3-4 million deaths each year in the US, normally (death, illness, accident, etc.).

Be safe and take care.

[thesquanderer]

14. re: "in short, they simply can't afford to travel by air, or travel period for that matter"

True, but in the grocery stores, they stand on line next to people who have traveled, or next to people who have come into contact with OTHER people who have traveled, and so on. Relatively few people live totally hermitted and isolated from others.Even homebound and elderly often have people come in to perform services of various sorts.

[33taw]

7. This site is helpful

[link:https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections|

[SaveOurDemocracy]

8. CousinIt posted this last night: From Andy Slavitt - Obama's former head of health care . . .

From Andy Slavitt - Obama's former head of health care . .
ORIGINAL Twitter thread:

Andy Slavitt @ 🏡
✔
@ASlavitt
March 28 COVID Update: This week & the month are going to be hard. We have to do our best to protect vulnerable populations & health care workers.

But a couple states I talked to today feel there is a real fork in the road. I will share what the paths seem to be.1/

10.7K
6:12 PM - Mar 28, 2020

He has the whole unrolled Twitter thread:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213194210



Very disturbing AND frightening from someone who actually knows what he's talking about.

[TheBlackAdder]

9. The numbers are low right now, because no antibody testing is performed to see how many infected.

.

In South Korea, they tested many people, including those who were asymptomatic and found 50% of those who were in their 20s were infected, yet showed no signs. Until the US performs mass testing, or a high sampling rate, to project an estimate, who currently has it is suspect.

I've heard ranges from 70-80% will get infected, from varying sources.

.

[Igel]

10. "Infected" isn't what matters.

It's the % with the severest symptoms that matters.

They're still quantifying the % of those infected with no symptoms whatsoever.

One recent estimate put that at a bit over 50%. S. Korea data, likely skewed a bit, came in a bit over 30% asymptomatic. Per those two examples, if you're infected there's a 1 in 3 (or 1 in 2) chance you won't know it.

And added that it appears when China designated something as a "positive" for reporting purposes, they didn't include anybody who wasn't symptomatic. (In the US at least, if you test positive, it depends on the test, not symptoms.)

This matters a lot in making predictions as to hospitalizations and deaths.

[MineralMan]

11. Impossible to say, without widespread testing of everyone.

Since most people who get infected have no or minor symptoms, we won't know how many have been infected with any accuracy. That makes the mortality rate impossible to calculate.

Right now, the important thing is to slow down the rate of infection, so the healthcare system is not overwhelmed. That's what all of these precautions are all about. That way, all of the research on treatments and potential vaccines can catch up. Then, if and when you get infected, there will be treatments. If you don't get infected, you might even get a vaccine to help prevent getting infected.

Numbers being quoted right now are just guesses, really. Nobody has enough information to make good predictions yet.

[Throck]

12. 80%