Interesting "smart thermometer" data from Kinsa Health

[pat_k]

Social distancing is slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

Kinsa Health, a company that has sold or given away more than 1 million smart thermometers in the US. Kinsa collects anonymized thermometer readings (via its app, which users connect to the device) from its active user base to estimate the share of people that are ill in different geographies. By comparing current thermometer readings to historical trends, researchers have used Kinsa’s data to predict flu outbreaks weeks before the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s surveillance program, which uses hospitalization records....

Recent data clearly show the spread of Covid-19. On March 19, the share of Americans with temperatures indicating they had flu-like symptoms was about 4.9% when it typically would be expected to be about 4.0%. This was likely a result of the spread of Covid-19, according to Kinsa’s researchers.

But by March 23, it was down to 3.3%, when it would typically be at 3.7% (the share of fevers decreases quickly at this time of year because of the end of winter).

The drop—from 0.9% above typical flu-like illness rates to 0.4% below—in just four days is the largest one Kinsa has ever observed in such a short period of time, according to Kinsa CEO Inder Singh. “There is no known precedent for this type of extensive social distancing in recent time,” said Singh. “We have nothing to compare this to, but this extreme drop is exactly what we would hope and expect with the measures currently in place.”

[msongs]

1. one can have covid 19 without having a fever nt

[rzemanfl]

2. True. Other stuff is not getting passed around because of distancing.

Interesting development, but how much is CV-19 and how much is other stuff remains to be seen.

[pat_k]

4. Looked to me like, prior to social distancing, the increase of 0.9% could be attributed to COVID-19.

Unless I'm misinterpreting, that's about 1 percent of people infected. That would actually be consistent with Iceland's surveillance data (found about 1% infected there).

[rzemanfl]

5. The same cannot be said for the decrease, which could all be atrtributed to less ordinary flu.

There is no way to interpret the data, IMHO.

[pat_k]

8. Yes. After soc distancing, can't tease out whatever is happening with COVID-19 from flu reduction.

Safe to conclude reduction in seasonable flu, but the magnitude relative to COVID-19 effect (up/down/no change relative to up tick before distancing) seems impossible to determine.

[pat_k]

3. Of course. But I still thought their findings were very interesting.

And I also think it is cool that, prior to all this, they've been able to predict flu outbreaks from patterns in the data before detected with other surveillance methods.

[mcar]

7. My niece's fiancee has it, or is symptomatic

and is being tested tomorrow. He works in NYC and has several co-workers who have tested positive.

He's got pain in his chest, upper respiratory, congestion, but no fever.

[pat_k]

9. So sorry to hear this.

[Freethinker65]

6. Perhaps more people are checking their temperatures more often?

Lots more normal readings than typical?

[JCMach1]

10. Correct... more Reading when people are well... if they don't have a 'control' for this in their

data, the data is meaningless.

Use the data for what it was intended: visualizing and predicting possible hotspots geographically

[pat_k]

11. My understanding is that their "Temp pal" is real-time, continuous monitoring.

Perhaps more people are wearing the thing than normally would, but I think that would just make the sample bigger, and data more reliable , not necessarily produce a change in pattern relative to non-flu season "baseline" or past flu outbreaks.

[mitch96]

12. We also have to remember only people who can afford these devices and smart phones...

are being counted. Not the unfortunates unable to get these devices..
m

[pat_k]

13. Wish they said what proportion were given away in the statement...

..."has sold or given away more than 1 million smart thermometers in the US."

That information would give some indication the level of the "affordability" issue.

[Jane Austin]

15. They sell for $35.00

On their website.

https://www.kinsahealth.co

[mitch96]

16. went to the web site and they are out of stock... along with amazon/target/walmart etc..oh well

I guess I'll use my meat thermometer... I'm meat, right?
m

[frazzled]

14. Hmmm, so why have the number of confirmed cases in my state

gone from around 585 to around 4,600 during that same time frame?