Let's NOT dance in our living rooms yet about the low rise in reported cases

[nitpicker]

Yes, just about all the states reported this morning a daily increase of under 15%.

BUT THESE ARE REPORTS.

Did the testing and test-reading go on full tilt during the weekend? I don't think so.

IF Wednesday increases less than 15% over Tuesday, I might be less pessimistic.

BUT even if the US levels out right now, for now at a 10% daily increase rate, that means total cases are projected to increase 4-fold in 15 days.

We NEED to keep up SD to drove the increase rate even lower.

[uponit7771]

1. K&R, a flat curve is aimed more at helping hospitals vs the economy or human normality ...

... when you get a test without having symptoms or know someone who gets a test without symptoms we're getting back to normal.

[NRaleighLiberal]

2. weekends have shown reductions last few weeks

[ananda]

3. Agree

Not everyone is being tested.

[Hortensis]

4. Not yet. BUT, I have hope that those who've self-distanced

for the last month to six weeks are more numerous than realized and have had a significant effect. After all, the object is to not get it, not to have a perfect nonattendance record, and nationally fewer outings would lower the exposures. Flatten those curves.

Of course so many who work and go to school were unable to, but over 30% of the population could have, and that still leaves a lot of room among the rest for curtailing public group activities, travel, church, malls, etc.

The first death in the U.S. wasn't until February 29, in WA, with invisible virus spread for at least 2 months.

But on February 24 we had stopped by a new Chinese restaurant here in Florida for lunch and found it empty; the owner sadly explained that "the elders" were afraid to come. By March 19, most states had declared emergencies, and many municipalities. GA's governor famously didn't issue a stay-at-home order until this week, but the Gwinnett County schools our grandchildren attend closed March 13. Etc, across the nation. You can bet when schools closed, whole communities were forced to take note, even residents who watch Fox and listen to Trump. Many of those famously refused to believe, but how many of their friends and family started distancing from them because of that?

So I wonder if effects of more earlier private distancing than we're hearing about might be showing up on the curve, or not. The media's focus is mainly on refusals and their dreadful effects, and what epidemiologists know I can't guess.

[Roland99]

5. Last Sunday had a lower number too