US cases are doubling every 7 days BUT the US death rate is doubling every 5 days (per JHU data)

[nitpicker]

The difference is because deaths come from cases reported when the doubling date was 5 days or less.

IF we kept on this course with 400K total cases reported as of this morning:

15 Apr: 800K cases
22 Apr: 1600K cases
29 Apr: 3200K cases

13K total deaths were reported this morning. IF it continued to double every 5 days:

13 Apr: 26K deaths
18 Apr: 52K deaths
23 Apr: 104K deaths
28 Apr: 208K deaths

But since cases are now doubling every 7 days, assume deaths double from now on every 7 days:

15 Apr: 26K deaths
22 Apr: 52K deaths
29 Apr: 104K deaths

Even if we got REALLY serious with mitigation to knock daily increases in cases down to 5%, there would still be a doubling period of 14 days in cases. Although this would reduce total cases and deaths in the long run, it does very little to start reducing this month's projected total deaths from cases that have been, or are about to be, detected.

And even if the death rate doubling got stretched out to 14 days, that's still a four-fold increase every four weeks.

IMO, getting the case and death rate daily increases down below 5% can't come soon enough.

[Squinch]

1. Every 7 days is a BIG improvement. Used to be every 3.

[SheltieLover]

2. Mind boggling

And the CDC is formulating a plan to send oeople who have been exposed but are asymptomatic back to work early.

Isn't this spreading fast enough and killing enough Americans quickly enough to please putin?

[link:http://WASHINGTON — The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is considering changing its guidelines for self-isolation to make it easier for those who have been exposed to someone with the coronavirus to return to work if they are asymptomatic.

The public health agency, in conjunction with the White House coronavirus task force, is considering an announcement as soon as Wednesday, Vice President Mike Pence said on Tuesday.

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[exboyfil]

3. New York City under reporting could be around 200 deaths/day

based upon the difference in terminal cardiac cases not transported to the hospital vs. last year. Those dead will probably never be tested.